Vancouver Canucks

What the Quant Says

249 goals, 18th in the league, off the 18th-ranked expected-goal rate at even strength (2.531 per 60). The structure and the result agree, and finishing rated minus-3.9, 24th.

J.T. Miller took ninety-nine points at 21:05 a night — a career high by twenty-seven at 29 — with 3:19 on the power play and 2:05 short-handed.

Elias Pettersson scored thirty-two, Bo Horvat thirty-one, Brock Boeser twenty-three, Conor Garland nineteen. Quinn Hughes added sixty-eight points from the blue line.

Garland is the file worth naming twice: fifty-two points with one power-play goal, at 5-10 and 165 pounds.

And the depth stops abruptly. After Garland's fifty-two the next-highest forward total is Tanner Pearson's thirty-four.

What the Scout Says

J.T. Miller's ninety-nine points at 29 are the largest single question on this roster. A career high by twenty-seven, off a 51st-percentile shot rate and a 15.5 per cent conversion, from a man who took 3:19 of power play and 2:05 of penalty kill a night.

The workload is real — 21:05 a night is the 98th percentile among forwards — and the shooting rate is the part that does not repeat on demand. His shot is 99.4 mph, the 10th-hardest of the 365 forwards the tracking measures, so the tool is there.

Elias Pettersson scored thirty-two goals from a 30-foot median with thirty-nine per cent of his shots from the slot — the 12th percentile — and his penalty differential of plus-1.008 per 60 is the 4th-best of all 393 forwards. Only McDavid, Stützle and Kaprizov were more profitable to have on the ice when the officials got involved.

Bo Horvat scored thirty-one out of the 137th-hardest chair of 652 skaters, which is an unusual combination and the reason his career plus-minus of minus-68 needs reading carefully.

Conor Garland is the best value on the roster. Fifty-two points on ninety-six seconds of power play a night, a 91st-percentile takeaway rate, the 93rd-percentile penalties drawn, and the best pair of possession shares of any forward who spent the season here — at 5-10 and 165 pounds.

And Brock Boeser is the warning. Thirty-seven per cent of his points came on the power play, his even-strength rate is the 33rd percentile, and his three skating measurements sit in the bottom fifth of the league at 25.

What the Quant Says

236 goals against, 8th in the league, off the 15th-ranked expected-goals-against rate at even strength (2.605 per 60). Seven places of difference, and the crease is all of it.

Quinn Hughes played 25:15 a night — the 9th-largest workload of 202 defencemen — and recorded the fewest hits and the fewest blocks of all 202.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson took 22:19 out of the 150th-hardest chair of 652 skaters and came out a shade under even. Tyler Myers played all eighty-two at 21:59 and scored once from 128 shots.

Luke Schenn hit at the 3rd-most of the 202 and was measured the 5th-slowest of 192. Kyle Burroughs hit at the 5th-most and was measured the 3rd-slowest.

Two of the four slowest defencemen the tracking measured play here, and both of them are among the five hardest hitters at the position.

What the Scout Says

Quinn Hughes is the file this chapter exists for, and the record cannot settle the argument about him.

Sixty-eight points at 25:15 a night, 5-10 and 180 pounds, the 6th-most power-play ice of any defenceman in the league, and 8.96 miles per 60 — the 23rd-most of all 202. A 22.6 mph top speed at the 84th percentile and 3.0 sprints per 60 at the 85th. The skating is real and measured.

Then: the fewest hits of all 202 defencemen and the fewest blocks of all 202. Both extremes at once, at twenty-five minutes a night, is a combination nobody else at the position produces — Erik Karlsson is 2nd in hits and 3rd-fewest in blocks; Hughes is 1st in both.

And the possession columns disagree. 52.7 per cent of the attempts is the 76th percentile; 50.1 per cent of the expected goals is the 52nd. His ice takes more shots than the other side and no more of the dangerous ones.

Fourteen team-mates have a recorded with-and-without line beside him and nine of them took a better share of the expected goals with him — Tanner Pearson by ten points, Conor Garland by six, J.T. Miller by four, Brock Boeser by four. Five did not, and the list is worth reading: Elias Pettersson 48.6 with him against 50.1 apart, Tucker Poolman 46.7 against 48.6, Alex Chiasson 47.1 against 47.3, Juho Lammikko 40.1 against 45.1, Matthew Highmore 40.9 against 43.5. This is not a sweep, and a defenceman playing twenty-five minutes on a club that finished 16th in attempt share should not be expected to produce one.

What none of this measures is edges, pivots, gap control or how he retrieves under a forecheck, which is the half a 180-pound top-pair defenceman actually lives on. This book can say he skates, produces and never touches anybody. It cannot say whether he defends.

Beneath him: Oliver Ekman-Larsson took a hard chair to a level share and scored five goals from 168 shots; Tyler Myers played all eighty-two and scored once from 128 off the 7th-hardest shot at the position; Tucker Poolman posted the lowest even-strength point rate of any qualified defenceman in the league.

What the Quant Says

1st in the league at plus-23.5 goals saved above expectation. No crease in hockey was worth more, and this is the only column where Vancouver finished first in anything.

Thatcher Demko played sixty-four games at .9146 on 1,967 shots — the 3rd-most faced by any of the 53 goaltenders who played twenty-five, and 14th of the same 53 by save percentage.

His last two seasons read .9149 across 1,164 shots and .9146 across 1,967 — two hundredths of a point apart across three thousand shots.

Jaroslav Halak took seventeen games and has gone to the Rangers. Spencer Martin took six.

Collin Delia arrives from Chicago with 1,031 career shots at .9040 across four seasons and no year above sixteen games.

What the Scout Says

This is the most valuable crease in the league and the whole of Vancouver's season.

Thatcher Demko played sixty-four games at .9146 across 1,967 shots. That save percentage is 14th of the 53 goaltenders who played twenty-five games and the workload is 3rd. The club rated plus-23.5 in goaltending — 1st in the league, and no other crease came within a goal of it.

The five-on-five ledger is the proof. Vancouver conceded 143 goals against an expectation of 166.5. Twenty-three and a half fewer than the model asked, which is the club rating restated.

A 14th-ranked save percentage produced the 1st-ranked goaltending value, and the reason is what he was standing behind. Vancouver finished 16th in attempt share, 19th in chances and 26th on the penalty kill at 7.305 expected goals against per 60 — only three clubs conceded more dangerous chances per minute short-handed. The same number in front of Toronto's structure would have been worth far less.

He is 26 with 4,271 career shots at .9124, and the two seasons of real size read .9149 across 1,164 and .9146 across 1,967 — two hundredths apart, with the second nearly twice the first. There is no variance in this record to argue with.

Behind him the depth is thin. Jaroslav Halak's seventeen games have gone to the Rangers, and Collin Delia arrives with 1,031 career shots at .9040 across four seasons and no year above sixteen games.

Ninety-two points came out of a middling structure and the best goaltending in hockey. A club arranged this way is one injury from the bottom of the conference, and the record says so without needing an opinion.

What the Quant Says

13th in the league at 6.967 expected goals per 60, over 4:54 a night — the 16th-largest workload. Middle of the league in both halves.

Quinn Hughes ran the point at 3:29 a night — the 6th-most of any defenceman in the league — and forty-six per cent of his sixty-eight points came there, the 98th percentile.

J.T. Miller took 3:19 with thirty-eight per cent of ninety-nine points on it. Bo Horvat 3:15 and thirteen power-play goals, Elias Pettersson 3:14 and ten, Brock Boeser 3:05 and eleven.

Four forwards above three minutes a night and eleven of Boeser's twenty-three goals came there — thirty-seven per cent of his points, on a man whose even-strength rate was the 33rd percentile.

Conor Garland scored one power-play goal and Oliver Ekman-Larsson three off 1:45 a night.

What the Scout Says

Thirteenth in the league on the 16th-largest workload. Precisely average, and it is carrying more of this club's offence than average.

Quinn Hughes ran the point at 3:29 a night — the 6th-most of any defenceman in the league — and forty-six per cent of his sixty-eight points came there, the 98th percentile. Sixty of the sixty-eight are assists.

J.T. Miller 3:19 with thirty-eight per cent of ninety-nine points on it, Bo Horvat 3:15 with thirty-seven per cent, Elias Pettersson 3:14 with forty, Brock Boeser 3:05 with thirty-seven.

Four forwards and one defenceman, all of them taking a third or more of their scoring from it. That is the highest concentration in this batch of four clubs, and on a unit ranked 13th.

Conor Garland is the counter-example the club should notice. He took 1:36 a night, scored one power-play goal, and still finished with fifty-two points — the only man in the top six whose production is almost entirely five-on-five.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson's 1:45 is the second defenceman's share and it produced three goals.

What the Quant Says

28th in the league at 7.305 expected goals against per 60, over 4:40 a night — the 19th-largest workload. Only Arizona, Montreal and Ottawa conceded more dangerous chances per minute short-handed.

J.T. Miller takes 2:05 at the 93rd percentile among forwards, which for a ninety-nine-point centre is unusual and expensive.

Tyler Myers 2:28 and Oliver Ekman-Larsson 2:01 on the blue line, Luke Schenn 1:53. Curtis Lazar arrives with 1:37 at the 77th percentile among forwards and the 8th-most blocks of 393.

Quinn Hughes takes 1:12 — the 33rd percentile — which for the club's biggest workload is a deliberate exemption.

Kyle Burroughs took the 3rd-most penalties per 60 of all 202 defencemen and Luke Schenn the 85th percentile, so the unit is fed more work than the structure can carry.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-eighth in the league at 7.305 expected goals against per 60, over the 19th-largest workload. Only Arizona, Montreal and Ottawa gave up more dangerous chances per minute short-handed, and this is the worst unit in the batch by a wide margin.

The personnel is not obviously the problem. J.T. Miller takes 2:05 at the 93rd percentile among forwards; Tyler Myers 2:28 and Oliver Ekman-Larsson 2:01 on the blue line; Luke Schenn 1:53. Curtis Lazar arrives with the 8th-most blocks of all 393 forwards and 1:37 a night.

What is a problem is how often the unit is on the ice. Kyle Burroughs took 1.66 penalties per 60 — the 3rd-most of all 202 defencemen — off the 3rd-smallest workload at the position. Luke Schenn's 1.06 is the 85th percentile.

Quinn Hughes takes 1:12 a night at the 33rd percentile, which for the club's largest workload is a deliberate exemption and a defensible one — the fewest blocks at the position is not a penalty-killing profile.

A 28th-ranked kill in front of the league's best goaltending is how a club concedes 236 goals and finishes 8th anyway.