Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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44

Travis Dermott

Vancouver Canucks Defense

The 92nd-percentile chance share on the 9th-percentile workload, with the 6th-percentile takeaway rate.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18TOR3711213+168000541.816:00
2018-19TOR6441317-522000984.117:18
2019-20TOR564711+1437001656.217:19
2020-21TOR51246-119000365.613:13
2021-22TOR/VAN60257+914001464.315:20
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—268134154+331000022994.315:54

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

60 games between Toronto and Vancouver, 2 goals and 5 assists at 15:20 a night, plus-9, fourteen penalty minutes, 46 shots. Thirty-fourth overall in 2015 by Toronto — the second round — six seasons, 268 games, 54 points.

The Finesse Game

56.2 per cent of the expected goals is the 92nd percentile among the 202 defencemen who played forty games and 53.1 per cent of the attempts the 79th — the best chance share on this blue line.

And both halves of the season need naming. Toronto finished 6th in attempt share and 5th in chances; Vancouver 16th and 19th. A figure produced mostly on the first of those clubs is a description of it.

Nineteen per cent of his attempts came from the slot, the 93rd percentile among defencemen, off a 50-foot median.

0.46 takeaways per 60 is the 6th percentile and 3.00 shots per 60 the 11th — almost nothing happens on his stick and he almost never shoots.

0.48 even-strength points per 60 is the 7th percentile, the second-lowest on this roster, and fifteen minutes and twenty seconds a night is the 9th.

55.0 per cent offensive-zone starts is the 185th-highest of 652 skaters.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 200 pounds, 3.59 hits per 60 at the 46th percentile and 3.00 blocks at the 13th.

Fourteen penalty minutes in sixty games and 0.46 penalties taken per 60 at the 28th percentile.

The Intangibles

21.9 mph is the 48th percentile, 1.4 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 the 45th and 8.65 miles per 60 the 69th.

All three ordinary, and his shot is 90.5 mph at the 17th percentile.

He is 25, a second-round pick, with fifty-four points in 268 games across six seasons. The chance share, the slot share and a soft chair taken cleanly are three real things. A 7th-percentile point rate, a 6th-percentile takeaway rate, the 13th-percentile blocks and fifteen minutes a night are why a possession number in the 92nd percentile has not bought him more ice.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    19.4% of his attempts in the slot, 93rd percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    56.2% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 47.0% for his club in the minutes he sat: +9.2, 100th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “Nineteen per cent of his attempts came from the slot, the 93rd percentile among defencemen, off a 50-foot median.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 876 minutes

Expected goals
56.2%
90th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53.1%
79th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 38 for, 32 against. Expected: 38.8 and 30.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
48th
Numbers
90th

The numbers rank him 42 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 60 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 60 games

Top speed
21.9 mph
65th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.35 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.21 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
90.5 mph
39th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with TOR · 610 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
VAN took 49.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 56.2% — 7.2 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 876 minutes at five-on-five — 48th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Rasmus Sandin65.0%52.8%54.8%
John Tavares54.3%56.7%54.0%
Auston Matthews64.6%54.0%62.0%

65.0% together, 52.8% for him apart and 54.8% for Sandin apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

67 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 64 feet. 15% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 69% from beyond forty.