Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

48

Alex Chiasson

Detroit Red Wings Right Wing

The 2nd-fewest takeaways of the 393 qualified forwards, the 6th-highest share of points on the power play, and eleven and a half minutes a night.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2012-13DAL7617+301011346.214:05
2013-14DAL79132235-21386041449.015:07
2014-15OTT76111526-56730110510.513:23
2015-16OTT778614+245211889.113:38
2016-17CGY81121224-64601110411.513:23
2017-18WSH619918+1261125915.311:46
2018-19EDM73221638-13281112317.916:58
2019-20EDM65111324-3426039711.313:07
2020-21EDM459716-10335016513.912:29
2021-22VAN6713922+4246029813.311:37
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—631114110224-363533841789612.713:37

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

13 goals and 9 assists in 67 games for Vancouver — 22 points and a plus-4 at 11:37 a night, the 9th percentile among forwards.

47.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 649 minutes, the 28th percentile. His ice went 27-22 against an expectation of 24.47-27.35.

The Finesse Game

45 per cent of his points came on the power play — the 6th-highest of the 393 qualified forwards. Ten of his twenty-two, off 1:53 a night. He is a power-play specialist who is on the ice for eleven minutes and takes almost half his production from two of them.

64 per cent of his shots came from the slot, the 90th percentile, at a median of 17 feet — the 14th-closest shot chart of 393. He stands in front of the net and tips things, which is a specific job and he is genuinely good at it: thirteen goals on 98 shots is 13.3 per cent, the 69th percentile.

1.11 even-strength points per 60 is the 11th percentile. Away from the man advantage there is nothing.

0.54 takeaways per 60 is the 2nd-fewest of the 393 qualified forwards — only Nicolas Deslauriers took fewer. 0.77 giveaways is the 5th percentile. He does not touch the puck outside the crease.

The Physical Game

6-4 and 208. 5.24 hits per 60 is the 64th percentile and 1.39 blocks the 36th.

21.1 mph is the 10th-lowest top speed of the 365 forwards the tracking covers, 2.2 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the 39th-fewest, and 9.07 miles per 60 is the 39th-lowest. All three in the bottom eighth. At 32 that is not going to improve.

0.62 penalties taken per 60 is the 48th percentile. Twenty-four minutes in sixty-seven games.

The Intangibles

Thirty-eighth overall in 2009, the second round, and 631 NHL games at 31 with 114 goals across six organisations.

Thirty-eight of those goals came on the power play. The record is remarkably consistent: eight to thirteen goals a season for a decade, at eleven to fifteen minutes, with a third of the points on the man advantage. The one outlier is 22 goals in Edmonton in 2018-19, off 123 shots at 17.9 per cent.

Detroit’s power play finished 24th in the league. A net-front tip specialist is a cheap and specific answer to that, and everything else about him — the skating, the takeaways, the even-strength rate — is the price of it.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    64.3% of his attempts in the slot, 91st percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “He stands in front of the net and tips things, which is a specific job and he is genuinely good at it”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 649 minutes

Expected goals
47.2%
33rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.1%
46th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 27 for, 22 against. Expected: 24.5 and 27.4.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
1st
Numbers
33rd

The numbers rank him 32 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 43 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 67 games

Top speed
21.1 mph
17th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.42 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.76 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
89.7 mph
64th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with VAN · 649 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
VAN took 49.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.2% — 1.8 below the club he did it on.
The role
649 minutes at five-on-five — 28th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Quinn Hughes47.1%47.3%50.8%
Luke Schenn48.3%46.7%49.4%
Oliver Ekman-Larsson48.2%46.8%50.0%

47.1% together, 47.3% for him apart and 50.8% for Hughes apart. Hughes was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

115 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 13 of them goals. His median goal came from 9 feet. 54% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 17% from beyond forty.