Connor McDavid

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

44 goals and 79 assists in 80 games — 123 points, a plus-28 and 45 penalty minutes at 22:04 a night, the 99th percentile among forwards.

57.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,367 minutes, the 93rd percentile. His ice went 72-50 against an expectation of 75.93-56.4.

Sixteen playoff games to the conference final: 10 goals and 23 assists, 33 points.

The Finesse Game

3.22 even-strength points per 60 is the 96th percentile among forwards and 36 per cent of his points came on the power play, the 91st — off 3:43 a night at the 97th, on the best power play in the league.

10.67 shots per 60 is the 93rd percentile and 44 goals on 314 shots is 14.0 per cent, the 74th — the volume is elite and the conversion is ordinary, which is the correct way round for a player who will do this for another decade.

65 per cent of his shots came from the slot, the 92nd percentile, at a median of 19 feet. He does not shoot from range; he arrives.

2.48 takeaways per 60 is the 93rd percentile against 2.31 giveaways at the 87th. He handles the puck more than anyone on the ice and the ledger is positive.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 194.

24.1 mph is the 3rd-fastest top speed of the 365 forwards the tracking covers, 19.5 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the 4th-most, and 10.36 miles per 60 is the 96th percentile. He is in the top five of the league for both speed and how often he reaches it, and he covers more ground than nine-tenths of the forwards in it. Of the 365 forwards the tracking qualifies, he is the only man in the top five for both speed and sprint count.

Then the number that says most about how he is defended. Drawn minus taken is plus-1.156 per 60 — the highest of all 393 qualified forwards. He draws 1.70 penalties per 60, the 96th percentile, and takes 0.54, the 37th. He is fouled more often than any forward in the league because there is no other way to stop him, and he almost never fouls anybody back.

2.55 hits per 60 is the 30th percentile and 0.88 blocks the 10th. There is no physical game and there does not need to be.

The Intangibles

First overall in 2015, and 487 NHL games at 25 with 697 points and a career plus-92.

Now the reading that matters. His chance share is 57.4 per cent and it is higher without every single team-mate on the roster. Without Darnell Nurse 58.8, without Zach Hyman 58.0, without Evander Kane 57.9, without Tyson Barrie 58.3, without Evan Bouchard 55.9, without Jesse Puljujarvi 55.2.

Read the same file the other way and it is the most damning thing in the Edmonton chapter. Evander Kane away from him took 41.5 per cent of the chances. Tyson Barrie 44.9. Kailer Yamamoto 44.4. Cody Ceci 47.9. Zach Hyman 50.7.

Every one of those men is a good NHL player and every one of them is under water without him. That is not a compliment to a supporting cast; it is a measurement of one player, and it is the clearest such measurement in the book.