Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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6

Brock Boeser

Vancouver Canucks Right Wing

The 15th-least ground covered of 365 tracked forwards, and thirty-seven per cent of his points on the power play.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17VAN9415002012516.016:13
2017-18VAN62292655-516100417916.217:30
2018-19VAN69263056-22260320912.419:10
2019-20VAN57162945+4145031699.518:34
2020-21VAN56232649-31681114116.319:19
2021-22VAN71232346-520110619511.818:36
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—324121135256-11884211891813.218:34

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

71 games, 23 goals and 23 assists at 18:36 a night, minus-5, twenty penalty minutes, 195 shots. Eleven of the twenty-three came on the power play. Twenty-third overall in 2015 by Vancouver, six seasons, 324 games, 256 points.

The Finesse Game

Thirty-seven per cent of his points came on the power play, the 93rd percentile among the 393 forwards who played forty games, off 3:05 a night at the 87th — and eleven of his twenty-three goals came there.

1.53 even-strength points per 60 is the 33rd percentile, which is the whole argument about him: at five-on-five he produced at a third-line rate.

8.86 shots per 60 is the 75th percentile at 11.8 per cent, from a 27-foot median with forty-six per cent from the slot.

49.1 per cent of the expected goals is the 45th percentile against 53.2 per cent of the attempts at the 77th — a four-point gap the wrong way, out of 59.4 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 62nd-highest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts. The softest chair on the club and a below-even chance share out of it.

0.95 giveaways per 60 is the 14th percentile.

The Physical Game

1.59 hits per 60 is the 13th percentile among forwards at 6-1 and 208 pounds, and twenty penalty minutes came out of seventy-one games.

0.50 penalties drawn per 60 is the 19th percentile.

The Intangibles

8.87 miles per 60 is the 15th-least of the 365 forwards the tracking covers, against 1.7 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 at the 8th percentile and a 21.9 mph top speed at the 20th.

All three skating measurements are in the bottom fifth of the league at 25, and that is the most consequential thing in this report. The tracking has existed for three years and cannot say whether this is how he has always skated.

His shot is 94.5 mph, the 81st percentile — the tool is intact.

He is 25, with 256 points in 324 games across six seasons, and has cleared fifty points twice. Twenty-three goals, a hard shot and a power-play role are the case. A 33rd-percentile even-strength rate out of the softest chair on the roster, and three skating measurements in the bottom fifth of the league, are why the club is deciding rather than paying.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,040 minutes

Expected goals
49.1%
49th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53.2%
79th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 35 for, 35 against. Expected: 40.2 and 41.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
43rd
Numbers
49th

The two rank him within 6 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 59 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 71 games

Top speed
21.9 mph
40th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.54 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.75 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
94.5 mph
88th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1040 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
VAN took 49.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.1% — 0.1 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 1,040 minutes at five-on-five — 67th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
J.T. Miller50.5%47.4%51.9%
Quinn Hughes51.4%47.2%49.5%
Elias Pettersson46.8%50.7%51.2%

50.5% together, 47.4% for him apart and 51.9% for Miller apart. He was worse away from Miller, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Miller did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

285 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 24 of them goals. His median goal came from 15 feet. 34% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 21% from beyond forty.