Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2024-25 report →

17

Matt Martin

New York Islanders Left Wing

The 2nd-most hits of 393 forwards, 1,052 career penalty minutes, and the 1st-percentile even-strength point rate.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2009-10NYI5022-126000100.013:14
2010-11NYI685914-13147001608.310:57
2011-12NYI807714-171210011305.412:09
2012-13NYI484711-263101676.011:54
2013-14NYI798614-11900031206.711:54
2014-15NYI788614-4114002908.911:16
2015-16NYI8010919+21190018611.610:33
2016-17TOR825490123000667.68:54
2017-18TOR503912050000466.57:59
2018-19NYI676814+553001629.711:26
2019-20NYI55538-1400024910.210:25
2020-21NYI546511-236100688.811:04
2021-22NYI71347-270000664.511:26
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—8177079149-46105220129207.610:53

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

71 games, 3 goals and 4 assists at 11:26 a night, minus-2, seventy penalty minutes, 66 shots. One hundred and forty-eighth overall in 2008, thirteen seasons, 817 games, 149 points.

1,052 career penalty minutes across thirteen seasons, and seventy penalty minutes out of seventy-one games.

The Finesse Game

0.52 even-strength points per 60 is the 1st percentile among forwards — the lowest rate of any Islander and near the lowest in the league.

4.88 shots per 60 is the 8th percentile at 4.5 per cent, the 4th. Sixty-six shots produced three goals. Fifty-five per cent of them came from the slot at a 21-foot median, so the locations are not the problem.

0.81 takeaways per 60 is the 3rd percentile.

47.0 per cent of the expected goals and 46.2 per cent of the attempts — better than the club’s average, from 34.7 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 40th-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts.

He is one of the forty most buried skaters in hockey and he came out above his own club’s rate. His ice went 22-25 against an expectation of 25.28-28.56.

The Physical Game

17.36 hits per 60 is the 2nd-most of the 393 forwards who played forty games, at 6-3 and 215 pounds in eleven and a half minutes a night. Only Ryan Reaves hit more often.

1.26 penalties drawn per 60 is the 86th percentile against 1.63 taken at the 93rd. The net is the 12th percentile, which is the deal.

1.92 blocks per 60 is the 60th.

The Intangibles

21.3 mph is the 13th-slowest top speed of the 365 forwards the tracking covers, at 2.4 bursts per 60 in the 13th percentile and 8.98 miles per 60 in the 7th. 81.2 mph is the 15th-softest shot of the 365.

Four separate measurements put him in the bottom five per cent of the league, and the hit rate puts him in the top one.

He is 33 with 817 games, seventy career goals and a thousand penalty minutes. There is no ambiguity about the job and no case that he does anything else. What the file cannot say is whether a fourth line built this way is worth eleven minutes a night, and the possession share is the closest it comes to an answer.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    35% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 8th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “17.36 hits per 60 is the 2nd-most of the 393 forwards who played forty games, at 6-3 and 215 pounds in eleven and a half minutes a night.”

  • nastya strength· hard to play against; the edge is the point

    “1,052 career penalty minutes across thirteen seasons, and seventy penalty minutes out of seventy-one games.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 818 minutes

Expected goals
47%
32nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
46.2%
23rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 22 for, 25 against. Expected: 25.3 and 28.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
13th
Numbers
32nd

The two rank him within 19 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 52 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 71 games

Top speed
21.3 mph
20th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.45 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.71 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
81.2 mph
25th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 809 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
NYI took 46.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.0% — 0.1 above the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 818 minutes at five-on-five — 42nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Casey Cizikas46.8%47.5%33.3%
Cal Clutterbuck49.0%44.8%41.6%
Adam Pelech53.8%43.0%50.8%

46.8% together, 47.5% for him apart and 33.3% for Cizikas apart. Cizikas was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Cizikas than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

82 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 22 feet. 49% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 21% from beyond forty.