Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

TP

Tucker Poolman

Vancouver Canucks Defense

The 95th-percentile block rate, the 6th-fewest penalties taken of 202 defencemen, and three points in forty games.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18WPG24112+20000273.712:34
2019-20WPG5741216-124011646.317:27
2020-21WPG39011-22000500.018:18
2021-22VAN40123+212000472.117:00
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—16061622+1380111883.216:49

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

40 games, 1 goal and 2 assists at 17:00 a night, plus-2, twelve penalty minutes, 47 shots. Hundred-and-twenty-seventh overall in 2013 by Winnipeg — the fifth round — four seasons, 160 games, 22 points.

The Finesse Game

0.29 even-strength points per 60 is the 0th percentile among the 202 defencemen who played forty games — the lowest point rate of anyone at the position who qualified.

Three points in forty games at seventeen minutes a night.

4.15 shots per 60 is the 45th percentile at 2.1 per cent — one goal from forty-seven attempts, from a 49-foot median.

47.7 per cent of the expected goals is the 34th percentile and 49.6 per cent of the attempts the 47th, out of 47.5 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 248th-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts.

A slightly hard chair and a chance share two points beneath the shot share — the wrong way round, and the only one of Vancouver’s regular defencemen for whom that is true.

The Physical Game

6.44 blocks per 60 is the 95th percentile among defencemen, on a seventeen-minute shift.

0.18 penalties taken per 60 is the 6th-fewest of all 202 defencemen — twelve penalty minutes in forty games.

2.91 hits per 60 is the 36th percentile at 6-2 and 199 pounds. The blocks are the physical game and the hitting is not.

The Intangibles

3.0 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 is the 86th percentile among defencemen, against a 21.5 mph top speed at the 28th and 8.67 miles per 60 at the 72nd.

Frequently above twenty miles an hour and rarely much past it, which describes short recoveries rather than speed.

His shot is 94.6 mph, the 51st percentile.

He is 29, a fifth-round pick, with twenty-two points in 160 games across four seasons. The blocks, the discipline and forty games of a slightly hard chair are the case. The lowest even-strength point rate of any qualified defenceman in the league, and no season above fifty-six games, are what a club weighs against it.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • shot-blockera strength· gets in front of it

    “6.44 blocks per 60 is the 95th percentile among defencemen, on a seventeen-minute shift.”

  • hard-to-movea strength· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “0.18 penalties taken per 60 is the 6th-fewest of all 202 defencemen — twelve penalty minutes in forty games.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 598 minutes

Expected goals
47.7%
36th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.6%
51st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 17 for, 19 against. Expected: 20.8 and 22.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
43rd
Numbers
36th

The two rank him within 7 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 59 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 40 games

Top speed
21.5 mph
47th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.85 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.46 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
94.6 mph
66th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 598 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
VAN took 49.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.7% — 1.3 below the club he did it on.
The role
598 minutes at five-on-five — 25th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Quinn Hughes46.7%48.6%50.8%
Elias Pettersson45.8%48.6%50.2%
J.T. Miller41.7%50.2%52.8%

46.7% together, 48.6% for him apart and 50.8% for Hughes apart. Hughes was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

58 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 1 of them goals. His median goal came from 40 feet. 12% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 67% from beyond forty.