Vancouver Canucks

What the Quant Says

236 goals, 24th in the league, and 30th at creating chances at even strength at 2.229 expected goals per 60. This is the half of the club that broke.

Quinn Hughes had 76 points in 68 games — 60 of them assists — from the blue line at 25:44 a night. He was the leading scorer on the roster by 26 points.

Jake DeBrusk scored 28 goals with 14 on the power play, Brock Boeser 25, Conor Garland 50 points at 165 pounds and Kiefer Sherwood 19 goals. Elias Pettersson had 45 points in 64 games, two years after 102, and took 109 shots in a season in which he has three times taken more than 200.

Finishing at five-on-five was 9th in the league, 9.0 goals better than expectation, which is the club scoring rather more than its chances deserved. The chances themselves were 30th, and that is the season.

What the Scout Says

A club whose leading scorer is a defenceman, and whose franchise centre stopped shooting.

Elias Pettersson took 109 shots in 64 games. He has taken more than 200 in three separate seasons. The hands and the vision have not gone — 30 assists in 64 games is a distributor's rate — and what disappeared is the willingness to use any of it.

Jake DeBrusk takes 59 per cent of his shot attempts from inside 20 feet at a median of 16 and scored 28 goals, half of them a man up. Brock Boeser converted 17.2 per cent from a median of 30 feet, which says the release is still one of the better ones in the league.

Conor Garland's puck protection at 165 pounds is the most remarkable single skill on this roster. He goes into corners against men who should be able to remove him and he is not removed, and 31 assists is what comes out the other end.

Below that it is forecheckers. Kiefer Sherwood, Drew O'Connor and Nils Hoglander all finish every check and none of them creates anything, and the club was 30th in the league at generating chances.

What the Quant Says

253 goals against, 18th in the league, and 6th in even-strength expected goals against at 2.342 per 60. The structure is genuinely good and the goals column does not show it.

At five-on-five the club conceded 158 goals against an expectation of 141, and the seventeen-goal difference is the crease.

Quinn Hughes is 5-10 and 180 pounds and played 25:44 a night; his ice conceded eight goals above expectation. Filip Hronek had 28 assists in 61 games at 23:54 and his conceded ten above. Marcus Pettersson is 6-5 and 174 pounds — among the tallest defencemen in the league and among the lightest — and he defends almost entirely with reach.

Below them it thins hard. Derek Forbort took 44.2 per cent of the chances, the 11th percentile, and Victor Mancini 40.9 — the 3rd percentile and the worst mark in this chapter. Tyler Myers at 6-8 took 74 penalty minutes.

What the Scout Says

Two exceptional puck-movers, no weight behind them, and a third pair that gives most of it back.

Quinn Hughes escapes a forecheck by turning into it. He walks the line, he holds the puck until a killing box commits, and 60 assists in 68 games is the number. He defends entirely by anticipation and stick position, and when that fails there is no second answer.

Filip Hronek retrieves under pressure, escapes the first forechecker and moves the puck early, which is the specific reason he can play beside Hughes without both of them going the same way. Marcus Pettersson is 6-5 and 174 pounds and defends almost entirely with reach — he takes the puck with his stick before contact is required.

Tyler Myers is 6-8 and defends the rush with reach that is genuinely difficult to get around, and 74 penalty minutes says how often he is beaten to the outside anyway.

Derek Forbort blocks shots at a rate among the highest in the league and took 44.2 per cent of the chances. Elias Pettersson the defenceman is 21 and played 28 games, and Victor Mancini at 229 pounds is the heaviest body the organisation has.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 17.0 goals worse than the chances faced, 27th in the league, behind the 7th-best chance suppression in hockey. That is the wrong way round and it is most of the season.

Kevin Lankinen went 25-15-10 with a .9019 and 4 shutouts in 51 games. He is undrafted, he was signed on the eve of training camp for close to the league minimum after the club's starter was hurt and it had nobody, he played 51 games, and he signed a five-year extension in January.

Thatcher Demko went 10-8-3 with an .8893 in 23 games. Two seasons earlier he went 35-14-2 with a .9180 and was a Vezina finalist. He missed the first two months with a rare knee injury that had almost no precedent in the sport, came back, and was hurt again. What was missing was the lateral push, which is precisely what that injury takes.

What the Scout Says

A goaltender signed off the street in September, and a Vezina finalist whose knee has not held.

Kevin Lankinen is 6-2 and 190 and the technique is compact and orthodox. He plays a conventional depth, he is square almost without exception, and he does not travel further out than the shot requires. The rebound control is decent and the lateral recovery is quick, which is the combination a smaller goaltender needs.

Thatcher Demko, when healthy, is among the most technically complete goaltenders in the league. He is square almost without exception, the depth management is disciplined, the rebound control is genuinely good and the glove is excellent.

What was missing last season was the lateral push — the injury was to the mechanism that produces it — and a second chance across the crease went in far more often than it used to. The club's response was to give the 30-year-old five years in January, which is not what a club does when it expects its starter back.

What the Quant Says

28th in the league at 6.213 expected goals per 60, over 4:44 a night. A bad unit on an average amount of opportunity, on a club that badly needed goals from somewhere.

Jake DeBrusk scored 14 power-play goals — half his season's total — and Brock Boeser 9, Conor Garland 7 and Elias Pettersson 7. DeBrusk is the net-front and he is the right man for it: 59 per cent of his shot attempts came from inside 20 feet at a median of 16.

Quinn Hughes walks the line and it is the best version of that play in the league, and it produced 4 power-play goals and a share of the 60 assists.

The absence is a second threat. Boeser's release is genuinely dangerous and Elias Pettersson took 109 shots all season, and a killing box that accounts for one shooter and one distributor has a simple night.

What the Scout Says

The best blue-line walk in the league and one shooter to use it on.

Quinn Hughes at the point is the entire construction. He holds the puck until a killing box commits and he throws passes that arrive where a forward is going, and no defenceman in the league does that part better.

Jake DeBrusk is the net-front and he is the right man for it — 59 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet, and 14 of his 28 goals a man up, standing in front of the goaltender and taking what comes.

Brock Boeser's release from the circle is the second threat and it produced 9. After that there is nothing: Elias Pettersson took 109 shots all year and Conor Garland is a distributor.

A unit with one screen, one shooter and one passer is 28th in the league, and on a club that scored 236 goals that is expensive.

What the Quant Says

16th in the league at 6.933 expected goals against per 60, over 4:51 a game — the 19th-heaviest workload. League-average at both, which on this roster passes as a success.

Teddy Blueger takes the hardest defensive draws and Drew O'Connor kills at 6-4, and both are honest, positionally exact forwards who do not foul. Derek Forbort blocks shots at a rate among the highest in the league and is the first defenceman over the boards.

David Kampf was acquired in the summer — 14 penalty minutes in 59 games and a first-unit killer on two clubs for eight seasons — which is the club buying the one thing it lost when its centre depth was dismantled.

The volume is Myers and Forbort: 74 penalty minutes in 71 games and 45 in 54, both mostly the stick foul that follows losing a step.

What the Scout Says

A league-average unit built out of honest, disciplined, unremarkable forwards.

Teddy Blueger takes the hardest defensive draws on the roster, makes the correct first pass and does not turn the puck over, and he has been a first-unit killer on three clubs. Drew O'Connor is 6-4 and among the faster large forwards in the league and closes on a puck carrier quickly.

David Kampf was acquired in the summer — 536 games, 143 points, and 14 penalty minutes in 59 games. That is the job description in three numbers.

On the blue line it is Forbort, who blocks everything, and Myers, whose reach makes a four-man box larger than it looks. Neither of them is quick any more and both of them foul, and 4:51 a game is more shorthanded time than this club can comfortably afford.