Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

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74

Ethan Bear

Vancouver Canucks Defense

The 8th-fewest blocks of 202 defencemen and the 95th-percentile attempt share, produced in Carolina.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18EDM18134-1110100205.018:38
2019-20EDM7151621-433101995.121:58
2020-21EDM43268-114001533.817:58
2021-22CAR585914+120002975.116:05
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—190133447-15772042694.818:57

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

58 games for Carolina, 5 goals and 9 assists at 16:05 a night, plus-1, twenty penalty minutes, 97 shots. Hundred-and-twenty-fourth overall in 2015 by Edmonton — the fifth round — four seasons, 190 games, 47 points.

The Finesse Game

56.4 per cent of the attempts is the 95th percentile among the 202 defencemen who played forty games and 54.9 per cent of the expected goals the 86th.

Carolina finished 2nd in the league in attempt share and 3rd in chances, and he started 55.2 per cent of his end-zone shifts in the attacking end, the 177th-highest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts. A 95th-percentile shot share from a third pair on that club is mostly the club.

6.24 shots per 60 is the 85th percentile at 5.2 per cent, from a 53-foot median at the 81st percentile with eleven per cent of his attempts from the slot.

0.92 even-strength points per 60 is the 47th percentile and seven per cent of his points came on the power play, off thirty-five seconds a night.

His ice went 37-37 against an expectation of 43.67-35.92 — nearly seven short in front and one more against, across fifty-eight games.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 219 pounds, and 2.64 blocks per 60 is the 8th-fewest of all 202 defencemen, against 3.54 hits at the 43rd percentile.

Twenty penalty minutes in fifty-eight games and 0.19 penalties drawn per 60 at the 15th percentile.

The Intangibles

8.76 miles per 60 is the 86th percentile among defencemen, against a 21.4 mph top speed at the 24th and 1.7 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 at the 54th.

A lot of ground covered slowly, and his shot is 91.2 mph at the 22nd percentile — soft for a defenceman shooting from fifty-three feet.

He is 25, a fifth-round pick, with forty-seven points in 190 games across four seasons and three organisations. The shot volume, the ground covered and sixteen minutes a night at 25 are real. The 8th-fewest blocks at the position, a soft shot and possession numbers that belong to Carolina are why Vancouver is his third club in three years.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 842 minutes

Expected goals
54.9%
86th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
56.4%
93rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 37 for, 37 against. Expected: 43.7 and 35.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
63rd
Numbers
86th

The numbers rank him 23 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 63 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 58 games

Top speed
21.4 mph
44th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.45 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.35 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
91.2 mph
43rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with CAR · 842 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
CAR took 55.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.9% — 0.3 below the club he did it on.
The role
842 minutes at five-on-five — 45th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jaccob Slavin57.4%52.9%57.2%
Ian Cole54.4%55.1%57.9%
Martin Necas54.1%55.1%49.3%

57.4% together, 52.9% for him apart and 57.2% for Slavin apart. He was worse away from Slavin, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Slavin did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

127 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 5 of them goals. His median goal came from 58 feet. 7% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 76% from beyond forty.