Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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83

Conor Garland

Vancouver Canucks Right Wing

Fifty-two points at 5-10 and 165 pounds, on one power-play goal.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19ARI4713518+11240211811.012:47
2019-20ARI68221739+12040515813.914:09
2020-21ARI49122739-3263011358.917:55
2021-22VAN77193352+18361032039.416:24
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—2416682148+17941201161410.815:22

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

77 games, 19 goals and 33 assists at 16:24 a night, plus-18, thirty-six penalty minutes, 203 shots. One of the nineteen came on the power play. Hundred-and-twenty-third overall in 2015 by Arizona — the fifth round — four seasons, 241 games, 148 points.

The Finesse Game

Fifty-two points and one of them a power-play goal. 2.58 even-strength points per 60 is the 84th percentile among the 393 forwards who played forty games, and only six per cent of his points came on the power play, the 26th percentile, off 1:36 a night.

Almost all of this is five-on-five production, which is the most transferable kind there is.

9.64 shots per 60 is the 85th percentile at 9.4 per cent, from a 23-foot median with fifty-two per cent from the slot. Two hundred and three attempts off sixteen minutes a night at 5-10 and 165 pounds.

54.4 per cent of the expected goals is the 80th percentile and 53.0 per cent of the attempts the 75th, out of 50.4 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 321st-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts — as close to an even chair as the pool contains, and the best pair of possession shares of any forward who spent the season in Vancouver.

2.37 takeaways per 60 is the 91st percentile.

The Physical Game

5-10 and 165 pounds — the lightest forward on this roster — and 2.47 hits per 60 at the 27th percentile.

1.57 penalties drawn per 60 is the 93rd percentile against 0.66 taken at the 53rd, and thirty-six penalty minutes came out of seventy-seven games.

The Intangibles

22.8 mph is the 75th percentile and 9.80 miles per 60 the 62nd, against 3.9 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 at the 34th.

A good top end reached rarely, and an ordinary amount of ground covered. The tracking does not support a reputation for relentlessness, and at 165 pounds it is the takeaway rate and the calls he draws that make the case instead.

His shot is 86.6 mph, the 25th percentile.

He is 26, with 148 points in 241 games across four seasons, and the fifty-two is a career high by thirteen. Fifty-two points on ninety-six seconds of power play, a level chair, a 91st-percentile takeaway rate and the 93rd-percentile penalties drawn are four things a club can price. A soft shot, a 34th-percentile sprint count and 165 pounds are what a seven-game series asks about, and the record does not answer any of them.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    54.4% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 46.8% for his club in the minutes he sat: +7.6, 96th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,104 minutes

Expected goals
54.4%
83rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53%
78th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 59 for, 37 against. Expected: 50.5 and 42.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
90th
Numbers
83rd

The two rank him within 7 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 71 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 77 games

Top speed
22.8 mph
84th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.08 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.68 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
86.6 mph
47th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1104 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
VAN took 49.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.4% — 5.4 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,104 minutes at five-on-five — 77th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Tyler Myers54.0%54.7%47.6%
Oliver Ekman-Larsson50.0%57.6%49.6%
Tanner Pearson53.1%55.2%53.2%

54.0% together, 54.7% for him apart and 47.6% for Myers apart. Myers was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Myers than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

264 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 19 of them goals. His median goal came from 23 feet. 38% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 14% from beyond forty.