Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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43

Quinn Hughes

Vancouver Canucks Defense

The fewest hits and the fewest blocks of all 202 defencemen, and sixty-eight points at 5-10.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19VAN50330200060.018:05
2019-20VAN6884553-10223021266.321:53
2020-21VAN5633841-2422000983.122:48
2021-22VAN7686068+10280011505.325:15
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—20519146165-24743033805.023:17

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

76 games, 8 goals and 60 assists at 25:15 a night, plus-10, twenty-eight penalty minutes, 150 shots. None of the eight came on the power play. Seventh overall in 2018 by Vancouver, four seasons, 205 games, 165 points.

The Finesse Game

Sixty of his sixty-eight points are assists, and forty-six per cent of them came on the power play — the 98th percentile among the 202 defencemen who played forty games, off 3:29 a night, the 6th-most at the position in the league.

25:15 a night is the 9th-largest workload of the 202.

1.34 even-strength points per 60 is the 87th percentile, so the power play is doing a great deal and not all of it.

And the possession columns disagree with each other in a way worth naming. 52.7 per cent of the attempts is the 76th percentile; 50.1 per cent of the expected goals is the 52nd. His ice takes more shots than the other side and no more of the dangerous ones, which is what a defenceman moving the puck up the ice without owning the front of his own net looks like.

57.0 per cent offensive-zone starts is the 125th-highest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts — a soft chair, and it accounts for some of the shot share.

4.69 shots per 60 is the 54th percentile at 5.3 per cent, from a 51-foot median.

The Physical Game

5-10 and 180 pounds. 0.59 hits per 60 is the fewest of all 202 defencemen and 1.75 blocks per 60 is also the fewest of all 202.

Both extremes at once, at twenty-five minutes a night, is a combination nobody else at the position produces. Erik Karlsson is 2nd in hits and 3rd-fewest in blocks; Hughes is 1st in both.

Twenty-eight penalty minutes in seventy-six games.

The Intangibles

8.96 miles per 60 is the 23rd-most of all 202 defencemen and 3.0 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 the 85th percentile, at 5-10 and 180 pounds on a 25:15 shift.

A 22.6 mph top speed is the 84th percentile. Fast, frequently at speed, and covering more ground per minute than 179 of the 202 — that is the tracking’s whole account of him, and it agrees with the reputation.

What it cannot measure is the part that matters most for this player: edges, pivots, how he escapes a forecheck, how he retrieves under pressure. Nothing in this book can settle whether the smallest top-pair defenceman in the league is defending well or being defended for.

He is 22, with 165 points in 205 games across four seasons, and the sixty-eight is a career high by fifteen. A twenty-five-minute defenceman producing at that rate at 22 is a genuinely rare asset. A 50th-percentile chance share and the fewest hits and blocks in his cohort are the two things a seven-game series asks about, and the record cannot answer either.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    19:15 a game at five-on-five, 90th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • edgesa strength· changes direction at speed; the forechecker commits and he is gone

    “8.96 miles per 60 is the 23rd-most of all 202 defencemen and 3.0 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 the 85th percentile, at 5-10 and 180 pounds on a 25:15 shift.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,463 minutes

Expected goals
50.1%
57th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.7%
76th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 60 for, 51 against. Expected: 59.9 and 59.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
87th
Numbers
57th

The report ranks him 30 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 70 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 76 games

Top speed
22.6 mph
89th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
1.25 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.77 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
94.9 mph
68th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1463 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
VAN took 49.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.1% — 1.1 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 1,463 minutes at five-on-five — 96th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Luke Schenn49.4%50.6%48.6%
J.T. Miller53.7%48.1%49.6%
Brock Boeser51.4%49.5%47.2%

49.4% together, 50.6% for him apart and 48.6% for Schenn apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

201 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 8 of them goals. His median goal came from 53 feet. 6% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 73% from beyond forty.