Vancouver Canucks

What the Quant Says

276 goals, 13th in the league.

Vancouver created 2.397 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 27th, and took 47.6 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 23rd, and 47 per cent of the expected goals, 24th.

At five-on-five it scored 169 goals against an expectation of 152.6 — a surplus of 16.4, 4th in the league. Twenty-fourth at making chances and fourth at finishing them.

Elias Pettersson had 39 goals and 102 points with 5 shorthanded, Andrei Kuzmenko 39 goals on 143 shots — 27.27 per cent, the highest shooting percentage in this book — J.T. Miller 32 and 82 with 8 goals from beyond 40 feet, Quinn Hughes 69 assists and 76 points from the blue line, Brock Boeser 18 and 55 with a minus-20 and Conor Garland 17 and 46 at 165 pounds.

Anthony Beauvillier arrived from the Islanders in the trade for Bo Horvat and had 18 goals and 40 points. Pius Suter arrives with 14 goals and 6 penalty minutes in 79 games.

What the Scout Says

A hundred and two points, thirty-nine goals on a hundred and forty-three shots, and eight goals from beyond forty feet.

Elias Pettersson is 6-2 and 176 pounds and had 39 goals and 63 assists with 5 shorthanded, at a career 16.6 per cent across 325 games and the 93rd percentile of top speed. The finishing rate, the speed and the two-way record are all settled; the weight is the whole of the argument about him.

Andrei Kuzmenko is undrafted out of Russia and scored 39 goals on 143 shots — 27.27 per cent, the highest shooting percentage in this book — from a 15-foot median with 63 per cent of his attempts inside 20 feet. He arrived at 26 with one season of NHL evidence and the tracking puts him among the slowest forwards in the league.

J.T. Miller is 6-0 and 211 and scored 8 goals from beyond 40 feet on 57 shots, which is the second-best long-range rate in this book and the exception this edition keeps looking for.

Conor Garland is 5-10 and 165 pounds — the second-lightest skater in this book — and had 46 points at the 17th percentile of top speed. Brock Boeser scored 18 goals and finished minus-20. Dakota Joshua shoots from a 12-foot median, the shortest of any skater in this book.

What the Quant Says

Vancouver allowed 2.681 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 18th in the league, and conceded 298 goals, 24th.

At five-on-five it conceded 192 goals against an expectation of 171.8, and the club's goaltending came in 20.2 goals worse than the chances it faced, 29th in the league. Eighteenth at suppressing chances and twenty-fourth in goals against, and the twenty goals in between are the crease.

Quinn Hughes played 78 games at 25:40 and covered 3.72 miles a game, the 99th percentile, on a chance share of exactly 50.0 per cent.

Tyler Myers is 6-8 with a 98.2 mph shot and scored one goal on a hundred shots, at the 18th percentile of chance share in 21 minutes a night. Filip Hronek cost a first-round pick at the deadline and has a career minus-88 in 309 games, with 5 goals from 87 point shots.

Ian Cole arrives from Tampa Bay with the seventh-highest career plus-minus of the 639 skaters in this book. Carson Soucy arrives from Seattle at the 2nd percentile of top speed. Oliver Ekman-Larsson has gone to Florida, Luke Schenn to Nashville and Kyle Burroughs to San Jose.

What the Scout Says

Five foot ten, a hundred and eighty pounds, sixty-nine assists, and a chance share of exactly fifty per cent.

Quinn Hughes is 5-10 and 180 pounds and played 78 games at 25:40, with 7 goals and 69 assists at 24. He covered 3.72 miles a game, the 99th percentile and the fourth-largest figure in this book, out of the 93rd percentile of offensive-zone ice time. He has 241 points in 283 games, and his 76 last season were bettered by one defenceman in this edition. There is not a defenceman in the edition who moves the puck out of his own end more reliably.

The honest counterpoint is one number and it is a real one. The expected goals on his ice came out at exactly 50.0 per cent — a hundred and fifty attempts a season from the outside, a club that was 24th in chance share, and a plus-20 that came from twenty-two goals of finishing rather than from the chances. He is 24, he is the best puck-mover in this chapter by a distance, and the results have not yet caught the ability.

Tyler Myers is 6-8 and 229 pounds with a 98.2 mph shot and scored one goal on a hundred shots. Filip Hronek is 6-0 and right-handed with 127 career assists and a minus-88 in 309 games.

Ian Cole arrives at 34 with two Stanley Cups and the seventh-highest career plus-minus in this book. Carson Soucy arrives at the 2nd percentile of top speed with 62 shots from the point and no goals.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 20.2 goals worse than the chances it faced, 29th in the league.

Thatcher Demko went 14-14-4 with a .9015 and a 3.16 in 32 games, facing 1,005 shots with 1 shutout. He is 6-4 and his career line across 168 games is a .9103, which is the argument for treating last season as an injury rather than a decline.

Casey DeSmith arrives from Pittsburgh, where he went 15-16-4 with a .9046 in 38 games facing 1,142 shots. He is undrafted, has a career .9121 across 134 games, and has spent five seasons as the other goaltender.

Arturs Silovs played 5 games at 22.

Spencer Martin played 29 games here and has gone to Columbus, and Collin Delia 20.

A club whose skaters were twenty-fourth in chance share and fourth at finishing got the twenty-ninth-ranked goaltending in the league, and the two men who will share the crease this season have between them one season above .910 in the last three.

What the Scout Says

A .9015 and a .9046, on the twenty-ninth-ranked goaltending in the league.

Thatcher Demko is 6-4 and 192 and went 14-14-4 with a .9015 in 32 games, on a career .9103 across 168. He is a technically excellent, deep-in-the-crease goaltender who posted a .9146 across 64 games two seasons ago and lost most of the year that followed to injury. The club's plan is that the season above was the injury.

Casey DeSmith arrives at 6-0 and 188, undrafted, with a career .9121 across 134 games and a .9046 in 38 last season. Five seasons of being the other goaltender is exactly what he is being bought to be.

Arturs Silovs is 22 and has 5 NHL games.

Vancouver lost 20.2 goals in the crease and has answered with the same starter and a better backup. If Demko's career figure is the true one, most of this chapter's problem was never the skaters.

What the Quant Says

11th in the league at 7.265 expected goals per 60, over 5:31 a night — the seventh-most power-play time of any club.

Andrei Kuzmenko scored 14 power-play goals, J.T. Miller 11, Elias Pettersson 6, Brock Boeser 6, Filip Hronek 4, Anthony Beauvillier 3, Quinn Hughes 2, Conor Garland 2, Dakota Joshua 1 and Ilya Mikheyev 1.

J.T. Miller has 53 career power-play goals in 718 games, the most on the roster, and Brock Boeser 48 in 398 — by rate the largest here. Elias Pettersson has 38 in 325, Tyler Myers 19 in 918, Anthony Beauvillier 18 in 490 and Andrei Kuzmenko 14 in 81.

Andrei Kuzmenko scored 14 power-play goals in a first NHL season at 26. Eleventh in the league on the fifth-most ice, and the whole unit returns.

What the Scout Says

Eleventh in the league, and the man who scored the most on it had never played an NHL game before.

Andrei Kuzmenko scored 14 power-play goals in his first NHL season at 26, from a 15-foot median at 5-11. He is the net front and the tip-in, and nothing in the record says whether it repeats.

J.T. Miller has 53 career power-play goals in 718 games, the most on the roster, and scored 11 with a 98.8 mph shot. Brock Boeser has 48 in 398 games — by rate the largest figure here — and takes the other circle.

Elias Pettersson has 38 in 325 games and runs it at 24. Quinn Hughes takes the point at 5-10 with 215 career assists and Filip Hronek the other with 4 power-play goals from 87 point shots.

Eleventh in the league on the seventh-most power-play time, and every man on the first unit returns.

What the Quant Says

23rd in the league at 7.338 expected goals against per 60, over 4:34 a night, and only six clubs spent less time shorthanded.

J.T. Miller scored 5 shorthanded goals, Elias Pettersson 5, Sam Lafferty 4, Pius Suter 2 and Dakota Joshua 1.

J.T. Miller has 9 career shorthanded goals in 718 games, the most on the roster, and Elias Pettersson 7 in 325 — by rate the largest here. Teddy Blueger arrives with 5 in 268, Ilya Mikheyev has 5 in 192, Sam Lafferty arrives with 4 in 210 and Pius Suter arrives with 3 in 216.

Teddy Blueger arrives from Vegas having taken 67 attacking draws against 284 defensive ones. Sam Lafferty arrives from Toronto at the 8th percentile of zone starts with 3.0 bursts above 20 miles an hour a game.

Twenty-third by rate on almost the least shorthanded time in the league. Two first-line forwards scored five shorthanded goals apiece and the unit still finished twenty-third.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-third in the league, killed by two first-line forwards.

J.T. Miller has 9 career shorthanded goals in 718 games, the most on the roster, and scored 5. Elias Pettersson has 7 in 325 — by rate the largest here — and scored 5 as well. Ten shorthanded goals from the top line is not what a good penalty kill looks like; it is what a busy one looks like.

Teddy Blueger arrives from Vegas with 5 career shorthanded goals in 268 games and 67 attacking-zone draws against 284. He is the specialist this unit did not have.

Sam Lafferty arrives at the 8th percentile of zone starts with 3.0 bursts above 20 miles an hour a game and 4 career shorthanded goals. Pius Suter arrives with 3 in 216 games and 6 penalty minutes in 79.

Ilya Mikheyev has 5 in 192 games and took 2 penalty minutes in 46. Twenty-third by rate on almost the least shorthanded time in the league, and the summer bought two men to fix it.