Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

25

Lane Pederson

Vancouver Canucks Center

A 38.0 per cent chance share across twenty-nine games, and no goals from twenty-four shots.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2020-21ARI15123-22000156.711:05
2021-22SJS29022-1610000240.010:31
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—44145-1812000392.610:43

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

29 games for San Jose, no goals and 2 assists at 10:31 a night, minus-16, ten penalty minutes, 24 shots. Undrafted, and forty-four NHL games and five points across two seasons out of it.

Two hundred and ninety-six minutes of five-on-five ice is well short of the five hundred this book requires before it will place a man in the league distribution, so what follows is described rather than ranked.

The Finesse Game

No goals from twenty-four shots, from a 30-foot median with twenty-nine per cent of his attempts from inside twenty feet.

38.0 per cent of the expected goals across 296 five-on-five minutes, which is the lowest figure attached to any skater in this chapter, out of 37.8 per cent offensive-zone time — the 2nd percentile of the 568 skaters the tracking covers with forty games, and he played twenty-nine.

He started 50.4 per cent of his end-zone shifts in the attacking end — sixty against fifty-nine — so the deployment is even and the ice time was spent in his own end anyway, which is what a bottom-line forward on a club that finished 31st in attempt share looks like.

His ice went 2-17 against an expectation of 8.42-13.72. Six and a half goals short in front and three more against, across twenty-nine games — and two goals scored on his ice across a whole season is not a sample.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 196 pounds, and ten penalty minutes in twenty-nine games.

The Intangibles

22.3 mph top speed and 1.8 bursts a game, both drawn from twenty-nine games. The sprint count would be the 81st percentile of the qualified pool if he had the games to enter it, and a maximum scales with shifts taken, so it is described rather than ranked.

1.79 miles a game at ten and a half minutes of ice, and a 93.1 mph shot.

He is 25, undrafted, with five points in forty-four NHL games across two seasons. The sprint count is the only encouraging measurement in the file. No goals in twenty-nine games, a minus-16 and the worst possession share in this chapter are why a third club in two years is where he is, and the record does not contain enough to argue with any of it.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • undrafteda strength· arrived without a pick attached

    “Undrafted, and forty-four NHL games and five points across two seasons out of it.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 296 minutes

Expected goals
38%
1st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
40%
1st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 2 for, 17 against. Expected: 8.4 and 13.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
38th
Numbers
1st

The report ranks him 37 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 58 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 29 games

Top speed
22.3 mph
59th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.83 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.79 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
93.1 mph
82nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with SJS · 296 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
SJS took 47.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 38.0% — 9.4 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 296 minutes at five-on-five — 8th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jonah Gadjovich41.3%35.9%44.5%
Brent Burns35.6%39.3%47.5%
Jasper Weatherby32.9%40.3%45.8%

41.3% together, 35.9% for him apart and 44.5% for Gadjovich apart. He was the one being carried: the share went with Gadjovich and did not follow him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

31 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 0 of them goals. 29% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 23% from beyond forty.