Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

61

Riley Stillman

Vancouver Canucks Defense

The 4th-lowest attempt share of 202 defencemen, and the 6th-most penalties drawn.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19FLA10000200010.011:22
2019-20FLA34055-314000390.019:07
2020-21FLA/CHI21101+516000293.515:22
2021-22CHI5221012-836001494.115:04
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—10831518-6680011182.516:22

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

52 games for Chicago, 2 goals and 10 assists at 15:04 a night, minus-8, thirty-six penalty minutes, 49 shots. Hundred-and-fourteenth overall in 2016 by Florida — the fourth round — four seasons, 108 games, 18 points.

The Finesse Game

41.5 per cent of the attempts is the 4th-lowest of all 202 defencemen who played forty games and 41.1 per cent of the expected goals the 2nd percentile.

Chicago finished 29th in the league in attempt share and 29th in chances, which is most of it, and it is not all of it: he started 52.0 per cent of his end-zone shifts in the attacking end, the 264th-highest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts. The chair was on the soft side of even.

0.99 even-strength points per 60 is the 58th percentile, which off that possession share is the one number pointing the other way.

3.75 shots per 60 is the 34th percentile at 4.1 per cent, from a 52-foot median.

The Physical Game

9.35 hits per 60 is the 93rd percentile among defencemen and 5.13 blocks per 60 the 77th, on a fifteen-minute shift.

1.00 penalties drawn per 60 is the 6th-most of all 202 defencemen against 0.92 taken at the 77th percentile, and thirty-six penalty minutes came out of fifty-two games.

6-2 and 207 pounds.

The Intangibles

21.2 mph is the 14th percentile among defencemen and 8.50 miles per 60 the 54th, against 1.5 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 at the 48th.

Slow, and ordinary in the other two. His shot is 95.1 mph, the 57th percentile.

He is 24, a fourth-round pick, with eighteen points in 108 games across four seasons and three organisations. The hits, the blocks and the calls he draws are three real things at 24. The 4th-lowest shot share of any defenceman in the league is the fourth, and Chicago explains a great deal of it without explaining why he was among the worst men on a bad club.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “9.35 hits per 60 is the 93rd percentile among defencemen and 5.13 blocks per 60 the 77th, on a fifteen-minute shift.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 711 minutes

Expected goals
41.1%
5th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
41.5%
3rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 27 for, 35 against. Expected: 24.4 and 35.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
43rd
Numbers
5th

The report ranks him 38 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 59 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 52 games

Top speed
21.2 mph
35th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.37 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.13 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
95.1 mph
71st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with CHI · 711 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
CHI took 45.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 41.1% — 4.3 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 711 minutes at five-on-five — 33rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Patrick Kane39.8%41.7%48.8%
Alex DeBrincat45.0%39.2%50.4%
Erik Gustafsson39.4%41.7%48.6%

39.8% together, 41.7% for him apart and 48.8% for Kane apart. Kane was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

71 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 55 feet. 8% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 80% from beyond forty.