Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2024-25 report →

14

Tyler Motte

Ottawa Senators Center

The 4th-most blocks of 393 forwards and the 85th-percentile penalty-killing load, at 5-10 and 194 pounds.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17CHI33437+214000468.711:23
2017-18CBJ/VAN46527-46000647.811:13
2018-19VAN749716-12100211147.912:46
2019-20VAN34448-10100003810.513:07
2020-21VAN246390140014015.016:01
2021-22VAN/NYR587815+2220111016.914:01
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—269352762-22760334038.712:56

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

58 games between Vancouver and the Rangers, 7 goals and 8 assists at 14:01 a night, plus-2, twenty-two penalty minutes, 101 shots. One hundred and twenty-first overall in 2013 by Chicago, six seasons, 269 games, 62 points.

The Finesse Game

1.20 even-strength points per 60 is the 15th percentile and none of his points came on the power play — seven seconds a night.

7.46 shots per 60 is the 53rd percentile at 6.9 per cent, the 12th. A hundred and one shots produced seven goals, from a 28-foot median with forty-three per cent from the slot — the 76th and 20th percentiles. He shoots from further out than a fourth-line forward should.

2.14 takeaways per 60 is the 82nd percentile against 1.33 giveaways at the 37th — a genuinely good ledger.

48.5 per cent of the expected goals and 46.1 per cent of the attempts, out of 41.7 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 110th-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts. Better in chances than attempts from a hard chair is the signature of a man who defends the middle.

His ice went 27-25 against an expectation of 23.21-24.64.

The Physical Game

4.28 blocks per 60 is the 4th-most of the 393 forwards who played forty games, at 5-10 and 194 pounds.

8.64 hits per 60 is the 84th percentile. 0.89 penalties drawn per 60 against 0.74 taken, and twenty-two penalty minutes came out of fifty-eight games.

The Intangibles

1:50 short-handed a night is the 85th percentile among forwards, and three of his 35 career goals have come a man short.

22.6 mph is the 56th percentile, 8.3 bursts per 60 the 79th, 9.86 miles per 60 the 69th. Quick in bursts and working hard, which is what the blocks and the hits predict.

He is 27 with 269 NHL games and 62 points. The blocks, the takeaway ledger and the kill are three real things at 194 pounds, and the 12th-percentile shooting rate is why he has never had more than fifteen points.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • shot-blockera strength· gets in front of it

    “4.28 blocks per 60 is the 4th-most of the 393 forwards who played forty games, at 5-10 and 194 pounds.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “1:50 short-handed a night is the 85th percentile among forwards, and three of his 35 career goals have come a man short.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 685 minutes

Expected goals
48.5%
43rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
46.1%
22nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 27 for, 25 against. Expected: 23.2 and 24.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
67th
Numbers
43rd

The report ranks him 24 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 64 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 58 games

Top speed
22.6 mph
70th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.93 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.30 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
90.5 mph
69th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with VAN · 586 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
NYR took 46.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.5% — 1.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
685 minutes at five-on-five — 30th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Juho Lammikko47.5%49.8%40.4%
Matthew Highmore48.6%48.4%35.4%
Tyler Myers42.4%51.3%50.5%

47.5% together, 49.8% for him apart and 40.4% for Lammikko apart. Lammikko was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Lammikko than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

133 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 7 of them goals. His median goal came from 9 feet. 31% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 26% from beyond forty.