Vancouver Canucks

What the Quant Says

279 goals, 7th in the league. From a club that was sixteenth at creating chances.

Vancouver created 2.565 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 17th, and took 51.4 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 10th, and 52.6 per cent of the expected goals, 6th.

At five-on-five it scored 187 goals against an expectation of 163.8 — a surplus of 23.2, 3rd in the league. Twenty-three goals above what the chances were worth. Seventh in goals scored on the sixteenth-best rate of chance creation is a finishing season, not a chance-creation one, and finishing is the thing that moves.

J.T. Miller had 37 goals and 103 points, Quinn Hughes 17 and 92 from the blue line, Elias Pettersson 34 and 89 and Brock Boeser 40 and 73.

Conor Garland had 20 goals and 47 points and took 60.1 per cent of the chances at five-on-five, the highest share on the club by three and a half points and the eighth-highest of anybody in this edition who played five hundred minutes.

What the Scout Says

A hundred-point centre, a forty-goal winger, and a checking line that outchanced everybody.

J.T. Miller is 6-0 and 211 and had 37 goals and 66 assists for 103 points, with 401 career assists in 799 games. He took 303 attempts at a 26-foot median with 40 per cent of them from inside twenty, which for a centre who plays a heavy game is exactly the chart it should be.

Elias Pettersson is 6-2 and 176 and had 34 goals and 55 assists, with 10 game-winners — the most on the club. Brock Boeser scored 40 goals on 204 shots at 19.61 per cent, the third-best rate in this edition among men who took a hundred and fifty.

Conor Garland is 5-10 and 165 — the lightest man in this chapter — and took 60.1 per cent of the chances over 1,031 minutes. Nils Hoglander is 5-9 and scored 24 goals on 120 shots, with 64 per cent of his attempts from inside twenty feet. Dakota Joshua is 6-3 and scored 18 goals at 21.4 per cent with a fourteen-foot median attempt — the closest chart on the club.

Jake DeBrusk arrives from Boston with 138 career goals in 465 games, Daniel Sprong from Detroit with 18 goals in 76, Danton Heinen from Boston with 17 in 74 and Kiefer Sherwood from Nashville, undrafted, with 10.

What the Quant Says

Vancouver allowed 2.326 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 6th in the league, and conceded 223 goals, 5th. The two figures agree, which is rarer than it sounds.

At five-on-five it conceded 137 goals against an expectation of 147.7 — eleven fewer than the chances called for, and the club's goaltending came in 10.7 goals better than the shots it faced, 8th in the league.

Quinn Hughes had 17 goals and 75 assists in all 82 games at 24:41 and finished plus-38, and his ice went 92-55 against an expectation of 72.21-59.03. Filip Hronek played 81 at 23:26 with 43 assists and a plus-33, and his ice went 85-55 against an expectation of 67.16-63.44.

Tyler Myers is 6-8 and played 77 games at 18:57 on a plus-16, with 995 career games and 787 penalty minutes. Carson Soucy played 40 at 17:29 and finished plus-10. Noah Juulsen took 85 per cent of his attempts from beyond forty feet.

Vincent Desharnais arrives from Edmonton at 6-7, where his ice went 29-30 against an expectation of 44.35-38.07 — fifteen goals of finishing below what the chances were worth. Erik Brannstrom arrives from Ottawa and Derek Forbort from Boston. Ian Cole leaves for Utah.

What the Scout Says

Ninety-two points from a defenceman who is 5-10, and a partner who had 43 assists of his own.

Quinn Hughes is 5-10 and 180 and had 17 goals and 75 assists in all 82 games at 24:41, finishing plus-38, with 290 career assists in 365 games. He beats the forecheck by turning away from it rather than through it, walks the line until the lane appears and takes only 4 per cent of his attempts from inside twenty feet; 92 points and 75 assists are the most of any defenceman in this edition.

Filip Hronek is 6-0 and 190 and had 43 assists in 81 games at 23:26 on a plus-33, with 170 career assists in 390 games. His ice went 85-55 against an expectation of 67.16-63.44.

Tyler Myers is 6-8 — as tall as anybody in this edition — with 995 career games and 787 penalty minutes, and took 76 per cent of his attempts from beyond forty feet. Carson Soucy is 6-4 and finished plus-10 in 40 games.

Vincent Desharnais arrives from Edmonton at 6-7 and 225, a seventh-round pick with 114 career games. Erik Brannstrom is 5-10 and has 62 career assists against 7 goals in 266 games. Derek Forbort has 299 career penalty minutes in 496 games and no power-play goals at all.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 10.7 goals better than the chances it faced, 8th in the league. On a club that was already sixth at preventing them.

Thatcher Demko went 35-14-2 with a .9176 and a 2.45 in 51 games, with 5 shutouts, facing 1,492 shots. Thirty-five wins in 51 games is the fewest games any of the six men who won thirty-five needed to do it, and the .9176 was tied for the third-best figure of any goaltender who played twenty-five games.

Casey DeSmith went 12-9-6 with an .8946 in 29 games and is now in Dallas. Arturs Silovs played 4 games.

Kevin Lankinen arrives from Nashville, where he went 11-6-0 with a .9082 and a 2.82 in 24 games. He is undrafted, 29, and his career line across 112 games is a .9050.

A club that finished fifth in goals allowed with one of the three best save percentages in hockey behind it. The one question is that Demko has played more than fifty games twice in seven seasons.

What the Scout Says

Thirty-five wins in fifty-one appearances, from a goaltender who has done it twice in seven seasons.

Thatcher Demko is 6-4 and 192 and went 35-14-2 with a .9176 and a 2.45 in 51 games with 5 shutouts. He plays tall and square and lets the shot come to him rather than challenging out; at 6-4 that covers the net without needing the recovery, and the .9176 was tied for the third-best figure of any goaltender who played twenty-five games. His career line across 219 games is a .9119.

Kevin Lankinen arrives from Nashville, undrafted, 6-2 and 190, with a .9082 in 24 games and a career .9050 across 112. He has played thirty-seven games in a season exactly once and has been between .8911 and .9160 in the three seasons that were not last one.

Casey DeSmith posted an .8946 in 29 games and has gone to Dallas and Arturs Silovs played 4 games. Demko has played more than fifty games twice in seven seasons and the club has just replaced its backup with a man who has never played more than thirty-seven games in a season. That is the whole of the risk on a club that finished fifth in goals allowed.

What the Quant Says

9th in the league at 7.869 expected goals per 60, over 5:08 a night, the twentieth-fewest power-play minutes of any club. A good rate on middling volume.

Brock Boeser scored 16 power-play goals, Elias Pettersson 13, J.T. Miller 10, Quinn Hughes 5, Filip Hronek 2, Pius Suter 2, Conor Garland 1, Dakota Joshua 1 and Carson Soucy 1. Daniel Sprong scored 3 elsewhere, Jake DeBrusk 2 and Danton Heinen 1.

Brock Boeser has 64 career power-play goals in 479 games, the most on the roster, and J.T. Miller 63 in 799. Elias Pettersson has 51 in 407, Jake DeBrusk 30 in 465 and Tyler Myers 19 in 995.

Brock Boeser scored 40 goals on 204 shots — 19.61 per cent, the third-highest rate of anybody in this edition who took a hundred and fifty shots. Sixteen of the forty came on the man advantage, which is where a right-handed shot on the left circle is supposed to earn his money.

What the Scout Says

Ninth by rate on the twentieth-fewest minutes, built around a forty-goal shot.

Brock Boeser scored 40 goals and 16 of them on the power play, and has 64 career power-play goals in 479 games — the most on the roster. He shoots from the left circle off the half-wall pass and the whole unit is arranged to find him there.

Elias Pettersson scored 13 and has 51 in 407 career games. J.T. Miller scored 10 and has 63 in 799, and plays the net front at 6-0 and 211.

Quinn Hughes scored 5 from the point and has 10 in 365 career games with 290 assists; the unit runs through him before it runs through anybody else. Filip Hronek scored 2 and has 10 in 390.

Jake DeBrusk arrives with 30 career power-play goals in 465 games and Daniel Sprong with 14 in 344. A ninth-place unit with a forty-goal shot on it and two more arrivals who have scored on one.

What the Quant Says

12th in the league at 6.571 expected goals against per 60, over 5:26 a night, the fourth-most shorthanded minutes in hockey. A good rate over a great deal of ice.

J.T. Miller scored 2 shorthanded goals, Tyler Myers 2, Teddy Blueger 2, Jake DeBrusk 2 and Danton Heinen 1.

J.T. Miller has 11 career shorthanded goals in 799 games, the most on the roster, and Teddy Blueger 7 in 336 and Elias Pettersson 7 in 407. Tyler Myers has 6 in 995.

Teddy Blueger took 56.6 per cent of the chances at five-on-five over 851 minutes and has 7 shorthanded goals in 336 games, which is a fourth-line centre doing the hardest job on the club and getting the ice to go his way anyway.

Twelfth by rate over the fourth-largest shorthanded workload in the league. The rate is fine; the volume is a discipline problem.

What the Scout Says

Twelfth by rate over the fourth-largest shorthanded workload in the league.

J.T. Miller has 11 career shorthanded goals in 799 games, the most on the roster, and scored 2. Teddy Blueger has 7 in 336 games and scored 2; Tyler Myers has 6 in 995 and scored 2 from the blue line at 6-8.

Teddy Blueger took 56.6 per cent of the chances over 851 minutes at fourteen and a half minutes a night, which is a fourth-line centre whose ice goes the right way against the other club's best.

Derek Forbort arrives from Boston with 299 penalty minutes in 496 career games and 2 career shorthanded goals. Vincent Desharnais arrives at 6-7 and Erik Brannstrom with 145 penalty minutes in 266 games.

Twelfth by rate is fine. Five and a half minutes a night shorthanded, the fourth-most in the league, is the part that costs a good club games it should not lose.