Toronto Maple Leafs

Atlantic Division, Eastern Conference · 26 reports in the 2024-25 edition.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read, written from that season alone. Read the 2026-27 club page →

The club

2023-24 · 82 games · 216 for, 255 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five: 51.0% 15th of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five: 52.1% 10th of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty: 6.96 21st of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty: 8.27 29th of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth: +20.1 4th of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth: -2.8 19th of 32

Toronto Maple Leafs scored 20.1 more goals than their chances were worth — 20 goals of the record that the underlying play does not explain, and it regresses.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age: 28.3; weighted by points
From 33 and up: 14.2%; of skater points
From under 26: 18.9%; of skater points
Homegrown: 56.4%; drafted by this club
Continuity: 68.3%; of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

The third-best power play in the league on the sixth-fewest power-play minutes, and a sixty-nine-goal centre.

Who this names 10 of 26 on the roster · 40% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Simon Benoit, Connor Dewar, Max Domi, Pontus Holmberg, Calle Jarnkrok, David Kampf, Matthew Knies, Timothy Liljegren, Jake McCabe, Bobby McMann, Ryan Reaves, Morgan Rielly, Nick Robertson, John Tavares, Conor Timmins, Joseph Woll.

What the Quant Says

46-26-10, 102 points, 10th in the league and fifth in the East.

303 goals for, second in hockey. 263 against, nineteenth. Sixth at creating chances at even strength, fifteenth at preventing them, and the third-best power play in the league by rate on the seventh-fewest power-play minutes of any club.

At five-on-five: 200 goals scored against 179.9 expected, and 168 conceded against 165.2. Twenty goals of finishing gained and three of goaltending lost. The finishing was 4th and the goaltending 19th.

Auston Matthews scored 69 goals — twelve more than anybody else in this edition — on 540 shot attempts, also the most in it. William Nylander had 98 points and Mitch Marner 85 in 69 games. Max Domi's ice finished 20.5 goals above what the chances were worth, the second-largest such figure in the edition.

Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Jani Hakanpää, Anthony Stolarz, Max Pacioretty, Steven Lorentz and Alex Nylander all arrive. Ilya Samsonov and Mark Giordano do not.

This is a club that scores as well as anybody in hockey and defends like the fifteenth-best team in it. Six defencemen have been brought in or moved out in a year, and the goaltender who played forty games has been replaced with the one who led the league.

What the Scout Says

A sixty-nine-goal centre, the third-best power play in hockey, and a blue line rebuilt around two arrivals in their thirties.

Auston Matthews scored 69 goals on 540 attempts, both the most in this edition. Toronto's power play produced 8.597 expected goals per 60, the best rate in the league, on the seventh-fewest minutes. Anthony Stolarz arrives with the best save percentage of any goaltender who played twenty-five games.

The forward group is as good as any in this chapter and the defensive half of the club is fifteenth at suppressing chances. Everything Toronto has done in a year has been aimed at the second half of that sentence.

Who this names 7 of 16 forwards · 59% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Connor Dewar, Pontus Holmberg, Calle Jarnkrok, David Kampf, Steven Lorentz, Alex Nylander, Max Pacioretty, Ryan Reaves, Nick Robertson.

What the Quant Says

303 goals, 2nd in the league. Only Colorado scored more.

Toronto created 2.758 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 5th, and took 51.0 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 15th, and 52.1 per cent of the expected goals, 10th.

It scored 200 goals at five-on-five against an expectation of 179.9 — a surplus of 20.1, 4th in the league. Twenty goals above what the chances were worth, on the sixth-best rate of chance creation in hockey.

Auston Matthews scored 69 goals and had 107 points — the most goals of anybody in this edition, by twelve. He took 540 shot attempts, also the most in the edition.

William Nylander had 40 goals and 98 points in all 82 games, Mitch Marner 26 and 85 in 69, John Tavares 29 and 65, Max Domi 38 assists and Matthew Knies 15 goals at 21.

What the Scout Says

Sixty-nine goals, forty goals and a ninety-eight-point winger, on the same club.

Auston Matthews is 6-3 and 215 and took 540 attempts at a median of 23 feet with 41 per cent of them from inside twenty, 375 of them on goal, converting 18.7 per cent against a career 16.19. He is a large centre who shoots from the tops of the circles as readily as from the paint and gets it away without a wind-up; Five hundred and forty attempts and 69 goals is the most complete scoring season in this edition.

William Nylander took 423 attempts at a 32-foot median and scored 40 with 98 points in all 82 games. Mitch Marner had 59 assists in 69 games and has 445 career assists in 576. John Tavares is 6-1 and 217 and his median attempt was 17 feet, with 55 per cent from inside twenty — the closest chart of any regular forward on the club.

Matthew Knies is 6-3 and 232 at 21 and took 57 per cent of his attempts from inside twenty feet. Max Domi is 5-10 and had 38 assists on 118 penalty minutes. Bobby McMann is undrafted and scored 15 goals in 56 games.

Who this names 8 of 8 defencemen · 100% of their five-on-five minutes details

What the Quant Says

Toronto allowed 2.530 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 15th in the league, and conceded 263 goals, 19th. The middle of the league at both ends of that.

At five-on-five it conceded 168 goals against an expectation of 165.2 — three more than the shots called for, and the club's goaltending came in 2.8 goals worse than the chances it faced, 19th in the league.

Morgan Rielly had 7 goals and 51 assists in 72 games at 23:44, and his ice went 77-66 against an expectation of 61.89-61.66 — fifteen goals of finishing above what the chances were worth. Jake McCabe played 73 at 20:39 and finished plus-20, the best figure of any defenceman who played the season in Toronto.

Simon Benoit is undrafted, 6-4, and played 64 games at 17:14 on a plus-7. Timothy Liljegren played 55 at 19:40. Conor Timmins played 25 games and took 59.9 per cent of the chances, the highest share of anybody on the roster.

Chris Tanev arrives from Calgary and Dallas with 75 games at 19:41 and a plus-22, and a career plus-122 in 792 games. Oliver Ekman-Larsson arrives from Florida with 80 games at 18:24, and Jani Hakanpää from Dallas at 6-7.

What the Scout Says

A defenceman with 51 assists, and three arrivals to play in front of the crease.

Morgan Rielly is 6-1 and 219 and had 7 goals and 51 assists in 72 games at 23:44, with 392 career assists in 791 games. He carries the puck out and joins the rush and has done it for eleven seasons, and fifty-one assists in 72 games from a defenceman is a very large number.

Chris Tanev is undrafted, 6-3, and has 792 games and a career plus-122 with 33 goals in all of them. He blocks shots and defends by position and has never scored more than 28 points in a season. Jake McCabe is 6-1 and 210 with 348 career penalty minutes and finished plus-20.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson has 982 games, 471 points and a career minus-118 — the sixth-worst figure in this edition. Jani Hakanpää is 6-7 and 225 and took 85 per cent of his attempts from beyond forty feet. Simon Benoit is undrafted, 6-4, and scored 1 goal on 52 shots.

Timothy Liljegren was seventeenth overall in 2017 and has 51 assists in 196 games. Conor Timmins took 59.9 per cent of the chances over 360 minutes, the highest share on the roster.

Who this names 2 of 2 goaltenders details

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 2.8 goals worse than the chances it faced, 19th in the league. Ordinary, in a season where nothing else about this club was.

Ilya Samsonov went 23-7-8 with an .8896 and a 3.13 in 40 games and is now in Vegas. That figure was tied for the third-lowest of any goaltender who played twenty-five games.

Joseph Woll went 12-11-1 with a .9067 and a 2.94 in 25 games, facing 772 shots. He is 26, a third-round pick, and his career line across 36 games is a .9120 — including a .9315 in 7 games two seasons ago.

Anthony Stolarz arrives from Florida, where he went 16-7-2 with a .9254 and a 2.03 in 27 games — the best save percentage and the best goals-against average of any goaltender who played twenty-five games last season. He is 6-6 and 248, the heaviest goaltender in this edition, and his career line across 108 games is a .9145.

A club that scored 303 goals got nineteenth-place goaltending. It has now replaced the man who played forty games with the man who led the league in save percentage.

What the Scout Says

The heaviest goaltender in this edition arriving with the best save percentage in it.

Anthony Stolarz is 6-6 and 248 — the heaviest goaltender in this edition — and went 16-7-2 with a .9254 and a 2.03 in 27 games for Florida. Both figures were the best of any goaltender who played twenty-five games last season. He takes up an enormous amount of net simply by standing in it and plays deep and square rather than challenging; a career .9145 across 108 games says the ability is real and the sample is still small.

Joseph Woll is 6-3 and 212 and went 12-11-1 with a .9067 in 25 games. He is quicker across the crease than his partner and plays a more athletic game, and a .9315 across 7 games two seasons ago is the reason the club kept him. Thirty-six career games is not enough to know.

Ilya Samsonov played 40 games at an .8896 and is now in Vegas. Toronto has replaced its most used goaltender with the man who posted the league's best save percentage, and the two who remain have 144 NHL games between them. That is either the boldest move in this chapter or the most reckless.

Who this names 11 men details

The data does not say who takes these minutes, so there is no denominator to hold this against — a count of names is all it can honestly be. Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it.

What the Quant Says

1st in the league at 8.597 expected goals per 60 — the best rate in hockey — over 4:43 a night, the sixth-fewest power-play minutes of any club. The third-best power play in the league on almost the least ice.

Auston Matthews scored 18 power-play goals, William Nylander 11, John Tavares 9, Mitch Marner 8, and Bobby McMann, Max Domi, Morgan Rielly, Jake McCabe and Nick Robertson 1 apiece. Alex Nylander scored 2 elsewhere, Max Pacioretty 2 and Oliver Ekman-Larsson 1.

John Tavares has 143 career power-play goals in 1,109 games, the most on the roster by a distance, and Auston Matthews 94 in 562. Max Pacioretty has 80 in 902, William Nylander 62 in 603, Oliver Ekman-Larsson 59 in 982 and Mitch Marner 44 in 576.

Five men with more than fifty career power-play goals, on the unit that produced the best rate in hockey. Nothing about this needs fixing.

What the Scout Says

The best rate in the league on the seventh-fewest minutes, with five men past fifty career power-play goals.

Auston Matthews scored 18 power-play goals and has 94 in 562 career games. He is 6-3 and 215 and shoots from the left circle, and the whole unit is built to find him there.

John Tavares has 143 career power-play goals in 1,109 games, the most on the roster by forty-nine, and scored 9 at the net front. William Nylander scored 11 and has 62 in 603.

Mitch Marner has 44 career power-play goals in 576 games and 445 assists; he runs the unit from the half-wall. Morgan Rielly takes the point with 14 career power-play goals in 791 games.

Max Pacioretty arrives with 80 career power-play goals in 902 games and Oliver Ekman-Larsson with 59 in 982. A unit that finished first in the league by rate has added two more men who have scored fifty on one.

Who this names 9 men details

What the Quant Says

14th in the league at 6.808 expected goals against per 60, over 4:50 a night, the ninth-fewest shorthanded minutes in hockey. Ordinary volume, ordinary rate.

William Nylander scored 3 shorthanded goals, Mitch Marner 1, Calle Jarnkrok 1 and Connor Dewar 1.

Calle Jarnkrok has 10 career shorthanded goals in 699 games, the most on the roster, and Mitch Marner 9 in 576. Max Pacioretty has 7 in 902 and Connor Dewar 4 in 190.

David Kampf is undrafted and took 44.1 per cent of the chances at five-on-five, the lowest share of any forward on the club, over 851 minutes. Chris Tanev has 792 games and a career plus-122 and arrives to take these minutes.

Six shorthanded goals from four men on a unit that finished fourteenth. This is the one part of the club that is merely adequate.

What the Scout Says

Fourteenth in the league on ordinary volume, and a group of arrivals who have all done the job.

Calle Jarnkrok has 10 career shorthanded goals in 699 games, the most on the roster, and scored 1. Mitch Marner has 9 in 576 and scored 1; William Nylander scored 3 last season and has 3 in his career, all of them in it.

David Kampf is undrafted and took the lowest chance share of any forward on the club — 44.1 per cent over 851 minutes — which is what the defensive-zone assignment costs. Connor Dewar has 4 career shorthanded goals in 190 games.

Chris Tanev has 792 games and a career plus-122 on 194 penalty minutes, which is a defenceman who has spent fourteen seasons killing penalties without taking them. Jake McCabe took 56 penalty minutes and Simon Benoit 56 in 64 games.

Fourteenth by rate is the weakest department on a club with the third-best power play in hockey. Tanev is the answer to it if there is one on the roster.

The roster

Evidence 0 Full 24 Light 2 No record

No measured season behind two of them: Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll. Their pages carry an older stat line and a judgment, and nothing from 2023-24.

Simon Benoit

D · Toronto Maple Leafs

Undrafted, 6-4, and one goal on 52 shots.

Connor Dewar

C · Toronto Maple Leafs

Four career shorthanded goals in 190 games, at 5-10 and 187 pounds.

Max Domi

C · Toronto Maple Leafs

His ice finished 20.5 goals above what the chances were worth — the second-largest such figure in this edition.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson

D · Toronto Maple Leafs

A career minus-118, the sixth-worst figure in this edition, and 59 career power-play goals.

Jani Hakanpää

D · Toronto Maple Leafs

Six-seven, and 85 per cent of his attempts from beyond forty feet.

Pontus Holmberg

RW · Toronto Maple Leafs

A sixth-round pick with a career 14.81 per cent shooting rate on 81 shots.

Calle Jarnkrok

C · Toronto Maple Leafs

Ten career shorthanded goals in 699 games, the most on the roster.

David Kampf

C · Toronto Maple Leafs

Undrafted, no power-play goals in 477 games, and the lowest chance share of any forward on the club.

Matthew Knies

LW · Toronto Maple Leafs

Six-three and 232 at 21, with 57 per cent of his attempts from inside twenty feet.

Timothy Liljegren

D · Toronto Maple Leafs

Seventeenth overall in 2017, and 51 assists in 196 games.

Steven Lorentz

C · Toronto Maple Leafs

A seventh-round pick, 6-4, and a sixteen-foot median attempt.

Mitch Marner

RW · Toronto Maple Leafs

Fifty-nine assists in 69 games, and 445 in a career of 576.

Auston Matthews

C · Toronto Maple Leafs

Sixty-nine goals on 540 attempts, both the most of anybody in this edition.

Jake McCabe

D · Toronto Maple Leafs

Eight goals on 73 shots from the blue line, and the second-best plus-minus on the club.

Bobby McMann

C · Toronto Maple Leafs

Undrafted, and 15 goals in 56 games in his first real season at 27.

Alex Nylander

LW · Toronto Maple Leafs

Eleven goals in 28 games, from an eighth-overall pick on his fifth organisation.

William Nylander

RW · Toronto Maple Leafs

Forty goals and 98 points in all 82 games, on 423 attempts at a thirty-two-foot median.

Max Pacioretty

LW · Toronto Maple Leafs

Three hundred and thirty career goals, and four last season on 95 shots.

Ryan Reaves

RW · Toronto Maple Leafs

One thousand and seventy-two career penalty minutes, the fifth-most in this edition.

Morgan Rielly

D · Toronto Maple Leafs

Fifty-one assists in 72 games, and 392 in a career of 791.

Nick Robertson

LW · Toronto Maple Leafs

Five-nine, and 14 goals in 56 games at eleven minutes a night.

Anthony Stolarz

G · Toronto Maple Leafs

The best save percentage and the best goals-against average of any goaltender who played twenty-five games.

Chris Tanev

D · Toronto Maple Leafs

Undrafted, a career plus-122 in 792 games, and 33 goals in all of them.

John Tavares

C · Toronto Maple Leafs

A hundred and forty-three career power-play goals, and the closest shot chart of any regular forward on the club.

Conor Timmins

D · Toronto Maple Leafs

The highest chance share on the roster, over 360 minutes.

Joseph Woll

G · Toronto Maple Leafs

Thirty-six career games, and a .9315 across seven of them two seasons ago.

How they were used

2023-24 · 82 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.