Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

95

Oliver Ekman-Larsson

Toronto Maple Leafs Defense

A career minus-118, the sixth-worst figure in this edition, and 59 career power-play goals.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2010-11PHX4811011+324000502.015:02
2011-12PHX821319320322121478.822:07
2012-13PHX4832124+5260011013.025:06
2013-14PHX80152944-4508061997.525:54
2014-15ARI82232043-184010172648.725:13
2015-16ARI75213455-69612082289.224:46
2016-17ARI79122739-25488011458.324:37
2017-18ARI82142842-28446032026.923:41
2018-19ARI81143044-16525121768.023:38
2019-20ARI6692130-3382111356.723:01
2020-21ARI4632124-1732200833.620:58
2021-22VAN7952429+5523011683.022:19
2022-23VAN5422022-2422000902.220:11
2023-24FLA8092332+10761031237.318:24
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—982144327471-1186325943521116.822:45

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

80 games with Florida, 9 goals and 23 assists for 32 points, 1 on the power play, 76 penalty minutes, 18:24 a night and plus-10, with 3 game-winners. He took 53.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,175 minutes, the 82nd percentile, and his ice went 49-41 against an expectation of 49.34-42.18.

Level with the chances at the offensive end and a goal of goaltending above them. Thirty-two points is his most since 2018-19 and the plus-10 is the best plus-minus of his career.

The Finesse Game

182 attempts at a median of 51 feet with 75 per cent of them from beyond forty and 8 per cent from inside twenty, 122 of those on goal, converted at 7.3 per cent against a career 6.82 across 2,111 shots.

144 career goals and 59 power-play goals in 982 games. The shot from the point is genuinely heavy and always has been; nine goals from a third-pairing defenceman is what a club is paying for, and 327 career assists is the rest of it.

The Physical Game

He is 6-2 and 190 and took 76 penalty minutes.

632 career penalty minutes in 982 games. He is light for a defenceman who has played fourteen seasons at twenty-plus minutes and has never defended by contact; the penalties come from reaching after the man has already gone past.

The Intangibles

Sixth overall in 2009 by Phoenix, fourteen seasons, and Toronto is his fourth organisation.

A career minus-118 — the sixth-worst figure in this edition — across fourteen seasons, most of them in Arizona. He is 33, he has 471 points, and the plus-10 he posted in Florida is the only time in fourteen seasons he has finished a year better than plus-five.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    80 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “The shot from the point is genuinely heavy and always has been; nine goals from a third-pairing defenceman is what a club is paying for, and 327 career assists is the rest of it.”

  • fouls-when-beatenhe lacks it· the stick foul that follows losing a step

    “He is light for a defenceman who has played fourteen seasons at twenty-plus minutes and has never defended by contact; the penalties come from reaching after the man has already gone past.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,175 minutes

Expected goals
53.9%
82nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
56.3%
93rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 49 for, 41 against. Expected: 49.3 and 42.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
76th
Numbers
82nd

The two rank him within 6 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 75 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 80 games

Top speed
22.9 mph
91st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
0.59 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.77 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
93.2 mph
59th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with FLA · 1175 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
FLA took 53.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 53.9% — 0.2 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 1,175 minutes at five-on-five — 80th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Dmitry Kulikov53.3%54.3%54.2%
Gustav Forsling53.7%54.0%57.1%
Anton Lundell52.1%54.6%53.4%

53.3% together, 54.3% for him apart and 54.2% for Kulikov apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

182 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 9 of them goals. His median goal came from 41 feet. 8% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 75% from beyond forty.