This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

John Tavares

A hundred and forty-three career power-play goals, and the closest shot chart of any regular forward on the club.

Season	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI

2009-10	NYI	82	24	30	54	-15	22	11	0	2	186	12.9	18:00
2010-11	NYI	79	29	38	67	-16	53	9	0	4	243	11.9	19:15
2011-12	NYI	82	31	50	81	-6	26	7	0	8	286	10.8	20:34
2012-13	NYI	48	28	19	47	-2	18	9	0	5	162	17.3	20:46
2013-14	NYI	59	24	42	66	-6	40	8	0	4	188	12.8	21:15
2014-15	NYI	82	38	48	86	+5	46	13	0	8	278	13.7	20:40
2015-16	NYI	78	33	37	70	+6	38	7	0	5	250	13.2	20:00
2016-17	NYI	77	28	38	66	+4	38	7	1	3	260	10.8	20:25
2017-18	NYI	82	37	47	84	-12	26	12	2	3	257	14.4	19:56
2018-19	TOR	82	47	41	88	+19	34	10	0	8	286	16.4	19:05
2019-20	TOR	63	26	34	60	-7	24	7	0	4	197	13.2	19:33
2020-21	TOR	56	19	31	50	+12	14	6	0	2	163	11.7	18:12
2021-22	TOR	79	27	49	76	-8	32	10	0	3	237	11.4	18:04
2022-23	TOR	80	36	44	80	-7	34	18	0	9	277	13.0	17:39
2023-24	TOR	80	29	36	65	+2	30	9	0	6	279	10.4	17:52
2024-25 so far	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Career	—	1109	456	584	1040	-31	475	143	3	74	3549	12.8	19:22

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

80 games, 29 goals and 36 assists for 65 points, 9 on the power play, 30 penalty minutes, 17:52 a night and plus-2, with 6 game-winners. He took 55.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,122 minutes, the 89th percentile, and his ice went 50-41 against an expectation of 55.14-44.71.

Five goals of finishing below what the chances were worth and four goals of goaltending above them. Nine of his 29 goals came on the power play.

The Finesse Game

381 attempts at a median of 17 feet with 55 per cent of them from inside twenty and 14 per cent from beyond forty, 275 of those on goal, converted at 10.4 per cent against a career 12.85 across 3,549 shots.

456 career goals and 584 assists in 1,109 games. A seventeen-foot median attempt is the closest chart of any regular forward on this club; at 33 he no longer beats anybody wide and has moved his whole game into the paint, and 143 career power-play goals is what that is worth on a first unit.

The Physical Game

He is 6-1 and 217 and took 30 penalty minutes.

475 career penalty minutes in 1,109 games. He is thickly built and holds the net front against defencemen who outweigh him, taking cross-checks without moving and without answering; that is now the largest part of what he offers.

The Intangibles

First overall in 2009 by the Islanders, fifteen seasons, two organisations, and 1,040 points in 1,109 games.

A career minus-31 across fifteen seasons. He has 1,040 points and 143 power-play goals, and at 33 he has become a net-front specialist on a club that has better wingers than it has centres.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored
65.4% of his attempts in the slot, 92nd percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it
clutch· scored his goals when the game was still live
6 of his 29 goals late or in overtime, 93rd percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure barely repeats (0.06) · 10% keep it
durable· was available
80 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it
net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips
“A seventeen-foot median attempt is the closest chart of any regular forward on this club; at 33 he no longer beats anybody wide and has moved his whole game into the paint, and 143 career power-play goals is what that is worth on a first unit.”
hard-to-movea strength· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand
“He is thickly built and holds the net front against defencemen who outweigh him, taking cross-checks without moving and without answering; that is now the largest part of what he offers.”
leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it
“A career minus-31 across fifteen seasons.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,122 minutes

Expected goals: 55.2%; 89th pct
Shot attempts: 51.9%; 71st pct

Goals while he was on the ice: 50 for, 41 against. Expected: 55.1 and 44.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight

Report

90th

Numbers

89th

The two rank him within 1 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 79 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 80 games

Top speed: 22.4 mph; 60th pct
Bursts over 20 mph: 1.32 a game
Distance: 2.67 miles a game
Hardest shot: 88.1 mph; 58th pct

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1122 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club: TOR took 52.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 55.2% — 3.1 above the club he did it on.
The role: First line, 1,122 minutes at five-on-five — 76th percentile in ice time.

With and without

Teammate	Together	Him apart	Mate apart
William Nylander	56.2%	53.7%	47.6%
Tyler Bertuzzi	58.9%	51.2%	53.0%
Morgan Rielly	55.3%	55.2%	47.9%

56.2% together, 53.7% for him apart and 47.6% for Nylander apart. Nylander was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Nylander than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

381 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 29 of them goals. His median goal came from 17 feet. 55% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 14% from beyond forty.