Toronto Maple Leafs

What the Quant Says

279 goals, 11th in the league.

Toronto created 2.921 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 7th, and took 51.1 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 16th, and 54.5 per cent of the expected goals, 4th.

At five-on-five it scored 184 goals against an expectation of 186.5 — a shortfall of 2.5, 22nd in the league.

Mitch Marner had 30 goals and 99 points with 4 shorthanded, above the positional conversion rate from all three distances. Auston Matthews scored 40 goals on 327 shots in 74 games, William Nylander 40 and 87 in all 82, John Tavares 36 and 80 with 18 power-play goals and 72 tip-ins and Morgan Rielly 37 assists from the blue line.

Calle Jarnkrok scored 20 goals on 106 shots at 18.9 per cent. Max Domi arrives with 20 goals and 56 points, Tyler Bertuzzi with 30 points in 50 games and John Klingberg with 33 points from the blue line.

What the Scout Says

Ninety-nine points and four shorthanded goals, and two forty-goal wingers on the same club.

Mitch Marner is 6-0 and 180 and had 30 goals and 69 assists with 4 shorthanded, above the positional conversion rate from all three distances — which almost nobody in this book manages. He has 554 points in 507 games.

Auston Matthews is 6-3 and 215 and scored 40 goals on 327 shots, taking 40 per cent from inside 20 feet — and converted below the league rate from in there. That is a forty-goal season built on volume rather than on percentage, which is the durable kind.

William Nylander is 6-0 and 200 and scored 40 goals, and John Tavares 36 with 173 shots on goal from inside 20 feet, 72 tip-ins and a 16-foot median. He is 33 and there is no other shot chart on the roster like it.

Calle Jarnkrok scored 20 goals on 106 shots. David Kampf is undrafted, took the 1st percentile of zone starts and 8 penalty minutes in 82 games.

Max Domi arrives at 5-10 with 512 career penalty minutes and the closest shooting line to the league rate in this entire book. Tyler Bertuzzi arrives with 24 tip-ins in 50 games. Ryan Reaves arrives with 1,023 career penalty minutes and the third-least ground covered of any skater in this book.

What the Quant Says

Toronto allowed 2.457 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 8th in the league, and conceded 222 goals, 5th.

At five-on-five it conceded 142 goals against an expectation of 155.4, and the club's goaltending came in 13.4 goals better than the chances it faced, 6th in the league.

Mark Giordano played 78 games at 18:57 at 40 years old, undrafted, with 1,102 career games and a 56.9 per cent chance share, the 93rd percentile. TJ Brodie held the best chance share on the blue line at 58.0 per cent on 74 shot attempts in 58 games.

Morgan Rielly played 65 games at 21:42 with 37 assists and scored no goals at all from inside 20 feet or beyond 40. Timothy Liljegren finished plus-24 with an on-ice goal record eleven better than the chances at the defensive end.

Jake McCabe played 76 games at 19:29 with a career high in points. John Klingberg arrives with a 40.0 per cent chance share, the 5th percentile, and Simon Benoit arrives with a 37.3 per cent share — the lowest of any defenceman in this book who played a thousand minutes. Justin Holl has gone to Detroit and Rasmus Sandin to Washington.

What the Scout Says

A forty-year-old at the ninety-third percentile of chance share, and two arrivals at the fifth and the first.

Mark Giordano is 6-0 and 202, undrafted, with 1,102 games, 568 points and 869 penalty minutes, and he played 78 games at 40 with a 56.9 per cent chance share, the 93rd percentile. There is no other file in this book like it.

Morgan Rielly is 6-1 and 219 with 341 career assists in 719 games, and scored no goals at all from inside 20 feet or beyond 40 — a forty-foot median and everything from one place.

TJ Brodie held the best chance share on the blue line on 74 shot attempts in 58 games; Timothy Liljegren finished plus-24 at 24 with four goals from nineteen mid-slot shots.

John Klingberg arrives with 326 career assists in 619 games and a 40.0 per cent chance share, the 5th percentile. Simon Benoit arrives with a 37.3 per cent share — the lowest of any defenceman in this book who played a thousand minutes. Toronto has replaced two top-four defencemen with two men who held the two worst chance shares on their own clubs.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 13.4 goals better than the chances it faced, 6th in the league.

Ilya Samsonov went 27-10-5 with a .9189 and a 2.33 in 42 games at 26, facing 1,184 shots with 4 shutouts — in the season after Washington let him go. His career line across 131 games is a .9079.

Joseph Woll played 7 games at 24.

Martin Jones arrives from Seattle, where he went 27-13-3 with an .8856 in 48 games — the third-worst save percentage in this book — while winning 27 of them. His career line across 444 games is a .9053.

Matt Murray played 26 games here and does not return, and Erik Kallgren 10.

A club that got the sixth-best goaltending in the league has replaced its second-most-used goaltender with a man who posted an .8856, and the difference between the .9189 and the career .9079 underneath it is the question the coming season answers.

What the Scout Says

A .9189 the season after Washington let him go, and an .8856 arriving behind him.

Ilya Samsonov is 6-3 and 208 and went 27-10-5 with a .9189 and four shutouts in 42 games at 26, on a career .9079 across 131. He is large, athletic and technically inconsistent, and the season was a hundred and ten points above the career figure underneath it.

Martin Jones arrives at 6-5 and 203 with 444 NHL games and a career .9053, having posted an .8856 last season — the third-worst save percentage in this book — while winning 27 games. That combination is the clearest illustration in this chapter of what a goaltender's record measures.

Joseph Woll is 24 and played 7 games. Matt Murray does not return.

Toronto had the sixth-best goaltending in the league and enters this season with a 26-year-old whose career figure is a hundred and ten points below his last one, a 24-year-old with 7 games, and a 33-year-old at .8856.

What the Quant Says

3rd in the league at 8.292 expected goals per 60, over 4:50 a night — the ninth-fewest power-play minutes of any club. The third-best rate in hockey on almost the least ice.

John Tavares scored 18 power-play goals, Auston Matthews 13, Mitch Marner 9, William Nylander 9, Calle Jarnkrok 3, Morgan Rielly 1 and Pontus Holmberg 1. Max Domi scored 8 elsewhere, Tyler Bertuzzi 4 and John Klingberg 2.

John Tavares has 134 career power-play goals in 1,029 games, the most on the roster, and Auston Matthews 76 in 481 — by rate the largest figure here. Mark Giordano has 52 in 1,102, William Nylander 51 in 521, Mitch Marner 36 in 507 and John Klingberg arrives with 21 in 619.

Eighteen of John Tavares's 36 goals came on the power play, from a sixteen-foot median and 72 tip-ins. Third in the league by rate on the ninth-fewest minutes, and every part of it is still here.

What the Scout Says

Third in the league on the ninth-fewest power-play minutes, and every part of it is still here.

John Tavares has 134 career power-play goals in 1,029 games, the most on the roster, and scored 18 — half his season's total — from a 16-foot median with 72 tip-ins. He is the net front and the unit is built to put pucks past him.

Auston Matthews has 76 in 481 career games — by rate the largest figure here — and shoots from the left circle at 6-3.

Mitch Marner has 36 in 507 games and runs the half-wall with 386 career assists. William Nylander has 51 in 521 and takes the other circle.

Mark Giordano has 52 career power-play goals in 1,102 games and John Klingberg arrives with 21 in 619 to take the point. Third in the league on almost the least ice in it, and the top four have not changed.

What the Quant Says

2nd in the league at 5.754 expected goals against per 60, over 5:23 a night, 7th in shorthanded time. The second-best penalty kill in hockey.

Mitch Marner scored 4 shorthanded goals, Mark Giordano 1, Calle Jarnkrok 1 and Timothy Liljegren 1.

Mark Giordano has 13 career shorthanded goals in 1,102 games, the most on the roster, and Calle Jarnkrok 9 in 647. Mitch Marner has 8 in 507, TJ Brodie 3 in 830, David Kampf 3 in 399 and John Tavares 3 in 1,029.

David Kampf is undrafted and took the 1st percentile of zone starts — almost every shift of his season began in his own end — and took 8 penalty minutes in all 82 games. Ryan Reaves arrives with 1,023 career penalty minutes.

Second in the league by rate on the seventh-most shorthanded time, and the two men most responsible for it are 40 and 32.

What the Scout Says

Second in the league, and the man who scored on it most is a first-line winger.

Mitch Marner scored 4 shorthanded goals and has 8 in 507 career games. He kills penalties as an attacking act and is the best forward in this chapter at it.

Mark Giordano has 13 career shorthanded goals in 1,102 games, the most on the roster, and Calle Jarnkrok 9 in 647. Between them they are most of the second-best kill in the league.

David Kampf is undrafted and took the 1st percentile of zone starts — almost every shift began in his own end — and 8 penalty minutes in all 82 games. That is what the assignment looks like when it is done properly.

Ryan Reaves arrives with 1,023 career penalty minutes and Simon Benoit with 84 in 137 games. Second by rate on the seventh-most shorthanded time, and the two men who did it best are 40 and 32.