Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

92

Alex Nylander

Toronto Maple Leafs Left Wing

Eleven goals in 28 games, from an eighth-overall pick on his fifth organisation.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17BUF4011-2000040.012:20
2017-18BUF3101-30000250.012:52
2018-19BUF12224-441001612.512:12
2019-20CHI65101626-2100019410.612:08
2022-23PIT9112+16000119.112:18
2023-24PIT/CBJ2811415-162027215.316:15
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—121252449-112630319912.613:08

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

28 games across Pittsburgh and Columbus, 11 goals and 4 assists for 15 points, 2 on the power play, 6 penalty minutes, 16:15 a night and minus-1, with 2 game-winners. He took 47.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 388 minutes, the 36th percentile, and his ice went 21-20 against an expectation of 18.28-19.96.

Three goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and level at the other end. Eleven goals in 28 games is nearly half of the 25 he has scored in his career.

The Finesse Game

102 attempts at a median of 25 feet with 46 per cent of them from inside twenty, 71 of those on goal, converted at 15.3 per cent against a career 12.56 across 199 shots.

Twenty-five career goals in 121 games. Forty-six per cent of his attempts came from inside twenty feet, which for a winger who has spent eight years being called a perimeter player is the most encouraging thing in his file.

The Physical Game

He is 6-1 and 205 and took 6 penalty minutes.

Twenty-six career penalty minutes in 121 games. He is a reasonable size and does nothing with it; there is no forechecking and no contact in his game, and that is most of why an eighth-overall pick has played 121 games in eight years.

The Intangibles

Eighth overall in 2016 by Buffalo, six seasons, and Toronto will be his fifth organisation.

A career minus-11 in 121 games. He was the eighth pick in his draft and has played 121 NHL games in eight years; 11 goals in 28 of them last season is the first thing he has done that a club would pay for.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “Forty-six per cent of his attempts came from inside twenty feet, which for a winger who has spent eight years being called a perimeter player is the most encouraging thing in his file.”

  • forechecks-aggressivelyhe lacks it· first man in, and on the puck

    “He is a reasonable size and does nothing with it; there is no forechecking and no contact in his game, and that is most of why an eighth-overall pick has played 121 games in eight years.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 388 minutes

Expected goals
47.8%
37th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50.9%
62nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 21 for, 20 against. Expected: 18.3 and 20.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
47th
Numbers
37th

The two rank him within 10 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 69 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 28 games

Top speed
22.1 mph
45th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
1.14 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.52 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
89.5 mph
67th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with CBJ · 329 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
CBJ took 45.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.8% — 1.9 above the club he did it on.
The role
388 minutes at five-on-five — 12th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Johnny Gaudreau46.7%48.8%50.3%
Zach Werenski47.6%47.9%48.2%
Ivan Provorov44.4%49.5%45.5%

46.7% together, 48.8% for him apart and 50.3% for Gaudreau apart. Gaudreau was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

102 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 11 of them goals. His median goal came from 32 feet. 46% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 22% from beyond forty.