Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

21

Conor Timmins

Toronto Maple Leafs Defense

The highest chance share on the roster, over 360 minutes.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20COL2000+2000010.010:25
2020-21COL31077+68000310.013:33
2021-22ARI6000-6000050.017:45
2022-23ARI/TOR2721214-180011910.515:06
2023-24TOR251910+918000254.016:01
2024-25 so far
Career9132831+1034001813.714:54

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

25 games, 1 goal and 9 assists for 10 points, 18 penalty minutes, 16:01 a night and plus-9. He took 59.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 360 minutes — the 98th percentile and the highest chance share of anybody on this roster — and his ice went 20-13 against an expectation of 18.92-12.65.

A goal of finishing above what the chances were worth and level at the other end. Fifty-nine point nine per cent from a third-pairing defenceman in 25 games is the most interesting number on this blue line.

The Finesse Game

38 attempts at a median of 52 feet with 74 per cent of them from beyond forty and 5 per cent from inside twenty, 25 of those on goal, converted at 4.0 per cent against a career 3.70 across 81 shots.

Twenty-eight career assists against 3 goals in 91 games. He moves the puck well and sees the ice better than a seventh defenceman needs to; nine assists in 25 games at sixteen minutes a night is a rate that would be worth more ice if he could stay in the lineup.

The Physical Game

He is 6-3 and 213 and took 18 penalty minutes.

Thirty-four career penalty minutes in 91 games. He is a large defenceman who does not play especially large; the defending is positional and there is more physical game available than he has used.

The Intangibles

Thirty-second overall in 2017 by Colorado, five seasons, and Toronto is his third organisation.

A career plus-10 in 91 games across five seasons. He has never played more than 31 games in a season, which at 26 is the whole of the story.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 360 minutes

Expected goals
59.9%
98th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
56.4%
93rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 20 for, 13 against. Expected: 18.9 and 12.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
51st
Numbers
98th

The numbers rank him 47 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 70 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 360 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
TOR took 52.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 59.9% — 7.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
360 minutes at five-on-five — 10th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Simon Benoit53.9%63.0%52.6%
Max Domi60.6%59.7%49.4%
William Nylander61.0%59.6%51.7%

53.9% together, 63.0% for him apart and 52.6% for Benoit apart. He was better away from Benoit, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Benoit.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

38 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 1 of them goals. His median goal came from 64 feet. 5% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 74% from beyond forty.