Toronto Maple Leafs

What the Quant Says

315 goals, 2nd in the league, off the 5th-ranked expected-goal rate at even strength (2.908 per 60). Finishing rated plus-19.6, 4th, so a couple of places were gained there and the structure did most of it.

Auston Matthews scored sixty — the most anyone in the league scored — off the 2nd-most shots per 60 of all 393 forwards. Mitch Marner took ninety-seven points, William Nylander eighty and John Tavares seventy-six.

Four men above seventy-five points, and Michael Bunting added sixty-three on a fourth-round contract at 26.

Morgan Rielly took sixty-eight from the blue line and Alexander Kerfoot fifty-one off eight seconds a night of power play.

Seven skaters cleared fifty points — Matthews 106, Marner 97, Nylander 80, Tavares 76, Rielly 68, Bunting 63 and Kerfoot 51.

What the Scout Says

The three men at the top of this roster all score from outside the paint, and that is unusual enough to be worth setting out.

Auston Matthews took forty-seven per cent of his shots from the slot — the 32nd percentile — off a 26-foot median, and scored sixty on 13.88 attempts per 60, the 2nd-most in the league. Mitch Marner took forty per cent from the slot at the 13th percentile off a 29-foot median. William Nylander forty-five per cent off twenty-eight feet.

John Tavares is the exception and the counterweight: sixty-three per cent from the slot off a 19-foot median, the 87th percentile. He is the only one of the top four who gets his goals from the paint, and he is 31 with the 23rd-most giveaways of 393 forwards.

Michael Bunting is the value on this roster and the file needs its caveat. 2.20 penalties drawn per 60 is the 3rd-most of all 393 forwards, sixty-eight per cent of his shots came from the slot off a 17-foot median, and 60.0 per cent of the expected goals is the 98th percentile. He produced it on the first line beside a sixty-goal scorer, from the 90th-softest chair of 652 skaters.

Alexander Kerfoot took fifty-one points at fifteen minutes a night with two per cent of them on the power play, and has the 13th-softest shot of all 365 forwards at 81.0 mph.

Pierre Engvall is the physical outlier: 13.7 sprints per 60 and 10.15 miles per 60 at six-foot-six, both in the top tenth of the league.

What the Quant Says

253 goals against, 18th in the league, off the 5th-ranked expected-goals-against rate at even strength (2.401 per 60). Thirteen places of difference, and the crease is all of it: minus-26.9, 29th.

David Kampf started 24.3 per cent of his end-zone shifts in the attacking end — the 5th-lowest of 652 skaters — and came out at 51.3 per cent of the expected goals.

Pierre Engvall took the 43rd-hardest chair in the league and finished at 55.2 per cent. Zachary Aston-Reese, arriving, took the 42nd-hardest and finished at 48.8.

TJ Brodie took 2.33 shots per 60, the 5th-fewest of 202 defencemen, at 21:19 a night, and Justin Holl 2.75, the 13th-fewest.

And the blue line gives the puck away. Jake Muzzin's 2.71 giveaways per 60 is the 16th-most of the 202, with Liljegren, Holl and Rielly all above the 82nd percentile.

What the Scout Says

Six defencemen played meaningful minutes and five of them give the puck away at a rate the position does not usually tolerate.

Jake Muzzin's 2.71 giveaways per 60 is the 16th-most of all 202 defencemen, against 0.74 takeaways — nearly four lost for every one won. Timothy Liljegren is at the 90th percentile, Justin Holl the 84th, Morgan Rielly the 82nd, TJ Brodie the 75th. Only Rasmus Sandin and Mark Giordano are below the middle.

Against that, the possession numbers are uniformly good and mostly borrowed. Liljegren's 58.0 per cent chance share is the 98th percentile and Sandin's 57.7 the 97th, both produced on sixteen minutes a night on a club that took 54.8 per cent of the chances league-wide. A third pair's share on a club like this describes the club.

Morgan Rielly is the file that stands on its own. Sixty-eight points, 23:44 a night, the 93rd-percentile shot rate from the blue line, a 99.0 mph shot, and 3.4 sprints per 60 at the 92nd percentile. Set against it: 2.68 blocks per 60, the 11th-fewest of the 202, and a career minus-13 across nine seasons.

TJ Brodie took 2.33 shots per 60 — the 5th-fewest of the 202 — across eighty-two games at twenty-one minutes. His shot is 90.4 mph at the 16th percentile, which settles the question of why.

Rasmus Sandin is 5-11 with the 2nd-fewest penalties taken of 202 defencemen and the 2nd-softest shot of 192. The tracking says he covers ground at the 90th percentile and almost never gets above twenty miles an hour, which is the opposite of what the position usually rewards in a small man — and nothing here measures edges or escapability, which is the half that would decide it.

What the Quant Says

29th in the league at minus-26.9 goals saved above expectation, in front of the 5th-best chance suppression in hockey. This is the largest single gap between structure and result in the book.

Jack Campbell played forty-nine games at .9140 — 17th of the 53 goaltenders who played twenty-five — and has gone to Edmonton. Petr Mrazek took twenty and has gone to Chicago.

Erik Kallgren went .8883 across 385 shots in fourteen games and Joseph Woll four.

Ilya Samsonov arrives at .8961 across 1,145 shots, 46th of the 53, with three seasons reading .9129, .9018 and .8961 — lower each year, and the worst is the largest.

Matt Murray arrives at .9063 across 640 shots in twenty games, with 7,255 career shots at .9112 and his last three seasons all beneath .9070.

What the Scout Says

This is the clearest goaltending problem in the book and it did not cost the club a playoff place.

Toronto finished 4th in the league in expected goals against per 60 at even strength and 29th in goaltending at minus-26.9. The five-on-five ledger reads 182 goals conceded against an expectation of 155.1. Twenty-seven more than the model asked, in front of the fifth-best chance suppression in hockey.

Four goaltenders played and the best of them was 17th of fifty-three. Jack Campbell went .9140 across 1,430 shots in forty-nine games and has gone to Edmonton. Petr Mrazek took twenty games and has gone to Chicago. Erik Kallgren went .8883 across 385 shots and Joseph Woll played four.

The replacements are two men with the same shape of record. Ilya Samsonov is 25 with 2,333 career shots at .9023 across three seasons — .9129, .9018, .8961 — each lower than the last and the worst of them the largest. His .8961 is 46th of the 53.

Matt Murray is 28 with 7,255 shots at .9112, and the career divides cleanly: .9296, .9234, .9065 and .9191 in the first four years, then .8986, .8930 and .9063. His games have fallen from forty-nine to thirty-eight to twenty-seven to twenty.

A 17th-ranked save percentage produced a minus-26.9 rating. The club has replaced it with a 46th and a twenty-game .9063, and nothing in either career says the number comes back on its own.

What the Quant Says

2nd in the league at 8.076 expected goals per 60, over 4:17 a night — the 3rd-smallest workload. Only Edmonton generated more per minute, and only two clubs got fewer minutes to do it in.

Auston Matthews scored sixteen power-play goals off 3:05 a night, William Nylander thirteen off 3:01 with thirty-nine per cent of his points there, John Tavares ten off 3:00.

Morgan Rielly ran the point at 2:54, the 92nd percentile among defencemen, with thirty-four per cent of his sixty-eight points on it. Mark Giordano 2:28 and thirty-four per cent of his.

Mitch Marner took 3:07 and six goals.

Below the top five there is nothing, and it does not matter: this unit had the second-best rate in hockey and the third-fewest minutes to spend it on.

What the Scout Says

Second in the league at 8.076 expected goals per 60, over the 3rd-smallest workload in hockey. That combination is the most efficient power play in this book: only Edmonton generated more per minute, and only Arizona and the Rangers were given fewer minutes.

Auston Matthews took 3:05 a night at the 88th percentile among forwards and scored sixteen. Mitch Marner 3:07 and six. William Nylander 3:01, thirteen goals, and thirty-nine per cent of his eighty points on it — the 95th percentile. John Tavares 3:00 and ten.

Morgan Rielly ran the point at 2:54, the 92nd percentile among defencemen, with thirty-four per cent of his sixty-eight points there. Mark Giordano arrived and took 2:28 at the 85th, with the same thirty-four per cent share.

Nobody else is above 1:55. Michael Bunting scored two power-play goals, Alexander Kerfoot none off six seconds a night, David Kampf none off four.

Six men and no seventh. On the third-smallest workload in the league that is a defensible arrangement, and it means an injury to any of the six costs more than it would elsewhere.

What the Quant Says

4th in the league at 5.306 expected goals against per 60, over 4:44 a night — the 17th-largest workload. A genuinely excellent unit, and the one place the club's structure and its result agree completely.

David Kampf takes 2:29 a night — the 5th-most of all 393 forwards — out of the 4th-hardest even-strength chair in hockey.

Mitch Marner takes 2:00 at the 91st percentile among forwards, which for a ninety-seven-point winger is unusual. Alexander Kerfoot 1:44, Zachary Aston-Reese 1:31, Calle Jarnkrok 1:06.

On the blue line: Jake Muzzin 2:37, Justin Holl 2:28, TJ Brodie 2:17, Morgan Rielly 1:41.

And the club is disciplined everywhere except its fourth line. Wayne Simmonds took the 10th-most penalties per 60 of all 393 forwards off the 2nd-smallest workload in the league, and Nicolas Aube-Kubel the 96th percentile off the 6th-smallest.

What the Scout Says

Fourth in the league at 5.306 expected goals against per 60, over the 17th-largest workload — the one unit where this club's result matches its structure.

David Kampf is the centrepiece and the whole shape of Toronto's checking. 2:29 a night short-handed is the 5th-most of all 393 forwards, and at even strength he took the 5th-hardest chair of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts and came out at 51.3 per cent of the expected goals. Four hundred and twenty-four defensive-zone starts against 136 in the attacking end.

Mitch Marner takes 2:00 at the 91st percentile among forwards. A ninety-seven-point winger killing two minutes a night is the least replaceable arrangement on the roster.

Alexander Kerfoot 1:44, Zachary Aston-Reese 1:31. On the blue line Jake Muzzin 2:37, Justin Holl 2:28, TJ Brodie 2:17.

And the penalties are taken almost entirely by the fourth line. Wayne Simmonds's 2.05 per 60 is the 10th-most of all 393 forwards, off the 2nd-smallest workload in the league; Nicolas Aube-Kubel's 1.82 is the 96th percentile off the 6th-smallest. The rest of the club is disciplined — Matthews at the 16th percentile, Marner the 12th, Sandin the 2nd-fewest of 202 defencemen.