Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

23

Matthew Knies

Toronto Maple Leafs Left Wing

Six-three and 232 at 21, with 57 per cent of his attempts from inside twenty feet.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2022-23TOR3011+1200040.013:07
2023-24TOR80152035+94500311513.013:41
2024-25 so far
Career83152136+104700311912.613:40

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

80 games, 15 goals and 20 assists for 35 points, none on the power play, 45 penalty minutes, 13:41 a night and plus-9, with 3 game-winners. He took 52.0 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,018 minutes, the 68th percentile, and his ice went 54-42 against an expectation of 44.95-41.46.

Nine goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and level at the other end. Thirty-five points from a 21-year-old at thirteen and three-quarter minutes a night is a very good first full season.

The Finesse Game

155 attempts at a median of 17 feet with 57 per cent of them from inside twenty and 15 per cent from beyond forty, 110 of those on goal, converted at 13.0 per cent against a career 12.61 across 119 shots.

Fifteen career goals in 83 games. Fifty-seven per cent of his attempts came from inside twenty feet, which is the highest share on the club; at 6-3 and 232 he takes the puck to the paint and stays there, and nobody moves him out of it.

The Physical Game

He is 6-3 and 232 and took 45 penalty minutes.

Forty-seven career penalty minutes in 83 games. He is one of the heaviest forwards on this roster and plays like it — he forechecks through people, wins the wall against defencemen, and does it without taking many penalties.

The Intangibles

Fifty-seventh overall in 2021 by Toronto, two seasons, and 36 points in 83 games.

A career plus-10 in 83 games. He is 21, he was a second-round pick, and he has already taken a regular top-nine job on a club that scored 303 goals.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,018 minutes

Expected goals
52%
68th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.7%
53rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 54 for, 42 against. Expected: 45.0 and 41.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
93rd
Numbers
68th

The report ranks him 25 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 80 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1018 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
TOR took 52.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.0% — 0.1 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 1,018 minutes at five-on-five — 60th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Auston Matthews61.1%38.9%53.3%
Mitch Marner60.2%45.4%50.8%
TJ Brodie49.6%53.6%49.3%

61.1% together, 38.9% for him apart and 53.3% for Matthews apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

155 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 15 of them goals. His median goal came from 11 feet. 57% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 15% from beyond forty.