Toronto Maple Leafs

What the Quant Says

253 goals from the worst possession team in the league: 44.8 per cent of the 5-on-5 shot attempts, 32nd of 32, and 29th in chance share. The scoring happened anyway, because Toronto finished 11.8 goals above expectation, 8th.

William Nylander scored 30 goals in 65 games. John Tavares scored 31 at 36 — and was minus-28. Auston Matthews managed 53 points in 60 games. Matthew Knies put up 66 points and was minus-30, taking 62 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet, from a median of 13. Max Domi was minus-29 with 95 penalty minutes.

The plus-minus figures are not the indictment; the shares underneath are. Not 1 skater on this roster finished above the 49th percentile in chance share. That is not a slump — it is a team that spends the game without the puck.

What the Scout Says

4 genuine scorers, 3 of whom do their work from the outside. Auston Matthews scores from the tops of the circles because the disguise makes distance irrelevant, and the volume and the location are both still intact. William Nylander scores from range because the release is quick and because he does not much like the traffic — the argument about him has run a decade and has never been settled by anything except more points. Max Domi works the perimeter and is thick and difficult to move for his height, and takes as many bad penalties as good hits.

John Tavares is the exception in the old group: he stopped shooting from the perimeter years ago and lives in the slot, where he cannot be moved, and the skating is now genuinely poor on a club that gets chased all night. Matthew Knies is the future of it — the best shot chart on the roster, real passing underneath it, and a willingness to be hit for both. Underneath, Dakota Joshua's shot chart is essentially all of his offence, and Easton Cowan is shooting from where he is permitted rather than where he wants to be, which is the normal first-year shape. This club needs Cowan to be more than a fourth-liner.

What the Quant Says

29th in even-strength expected goals against at 2.81 per 60, and 299 goals conceded — the second-most in the league.

Jake McCabe played 1,482 5-on-5 minutes at the 21st percentile. Oliver Ekman-Larsson took 1,388 at the 31st and had the goals go 54-65 against. Morgan Rielly played 1,350 at the 41st and was minus-18. Philippe Myers posted the 4th percentile in 39 games. Every man on the blue line is 32 or older except one.

Darren Raddysh arrives from Tampa with 22 goals from the point, 70 points and the 96th percentile in chance share — which would make him, comfortably, the best possession player on this roster. That one addition is the most consequential thing Toronto did.

What the Scout Says

The clearest weakness on the roster and it is a specific one: almost nobody here wins the space in front of his own goaltender. Morgan Rielly's skating has held up and he exits his own zone with the puck as well as anyone on the roster, and he loses net-front battles, does not clear a crease, and the defensive reads have been the criticism for 13 seasons. Oliver Ekman-Larsson has a quick first pass and intact power-play reads, does not win net-front battles, and is being asked for 21 minutes when the version of him that won a Cup was a sheltered third-pair defenceman. Troy Stecher cannot clear a crease as a matter of physics and compensates with positioning and a very active stick, and 19 minutes a night is more than this player should be asked for.

Jake McCabe is the one who takes the hard assignment, at 64 penalty minutes, and he is beaten wide by real speed often enough that it shows. Darren Raddysh is the addition that changes the shape — a top-5 assist total among defencemen and a game built entirely on having the puck rather than taking it back, which is a different problem rather than a solution. Philippe Myers is the 1 man here who clears his crease and blocks shots, and his puck decisions under pressure are why he has been a seventh defenceman at 4 organisations. Emil Andrae escapes forechecks beautifully and is moved wherever a heavy forward decides.

What the Quant Says

30th in the league: 21.4 goals worse than the chances faced — in front of the team that already allows the most of them.

Joseph Woll took 39 games and is a Flyer. Anthony Stolarz stopped .8927 across 26. Sergei Bobrovsky arrives from Florida at 37 having stopped .8768 across 52. Dennis Hildeby has gone to Tampa, Cayden Primeau to Carolina.

A club 29th of 32 at preventing chances, then getting the third-worst goaltending against them, is how 299 goals happen. Bobrovsky's arrival is a bet on a name; the number attached to it last season was the worse of the 2 Toronto already had.

What the Scout Says

2 large goaltenders and 2 reasons to be nervous. Anthony Stolarz fills the net standing up and a shot from distance has nowhere to go, and the difficulty is the one every goaltender this size has — getting down, getting back, and holding the post when the play moves laterally, so he is beaten on the second chance more than the first. The concussion history is real and it is the reason the workload has never grown.

Sergei Bobrovsky is a 2-time Vezina winner and a 2-time champion, and rebound control is the part that has gone. Behind a club that concedes second chances, that is the least forgiving weakness available. On the evidence gathered in this edition it is the riskiest bet any club made this summer, and it is being made by a club whose defence cannot clear the men who feed on rebounds.

What the Quant Says

22nd at 6.96 expected goals per 60, on 4:27 a night — 28th in opportunity. Below-median rate, near-worst time.

Tavares led it with 12 power-play goals, Nylander 7, Knies 6, Matthews 5. On a club that cannot hold the puck at even strength, a power play that neither gets on the ice nor produces when it does removes the last available escape route.

What the Scout Says

The most concentrated collection of 1-shot danger in the league. Auston Matthews's release is the whole premise — a killer cannot cheat toward a shot he cannot read. William Nylander is the entry and the carrier, and a unit with him on it should never have to dump the puck in. John Tavares lives in the slot and cannot be moved out of it, which is where most of his goals come from.

Matthew Knies gives it a second net-front option who can also make the play out of the corner. Darren Raddysh is a genuine upgrade at the point: a defenceman who has scored 20-plus from the blue line and whose whole game is possession, which is exactly what a man advantage is. Oliver Ekman-Larsson's power-play reads are intact and give the second unit a runner. Max Domi is a creator on a unit that is otherwise finishers. There is no piece missing here — which makes it the one phase of the club that needs no explanation at all.

What the Quant Says

31st in the league at 8.27 expected goals against per 60, over 4:51 a game, 17th.

Second-worst kill in hockey, on median workload, in front of the third-worst goaltending, behind the worst possession team in the league. There is no phase of this roster that props up another. Continuity is 68.3 per cent, 26th, so a great deal has changed — Raddysh in; Woll, Nicolas Roy, Scott Laughton, Simon Benoit, Brandon Carlo and Matias Maccelli out — and given these numbers, change is the only encouraging thing available.

What the Scout Says

The summer's work landed here more than anywhere. Teddy Blueger is a penalty-killing centre first — good on draws, good with his stick, reliable in his own end — and his availability is the thing to watch. Colton Sissons has done exactly this job for 12 seasons and does it well. Nick Paul is 6-4 and disciplined for the size. Brandon Duhaime's speed is what makes his forechecking work and it travels directly onto a kill; 78 penalty minutes in 11 minutes a night is the other half of him. Steven Lorentz is large, willing and positionally sound without an edge.

The blue line is where it stays difficult. Philippe Myers clears the crease and blocks shots and is the sixth defenceman; Jake McCabe takes the hard minutes. After those 2 the club is asking Rielly, Ekman-Larsson, Stecher and Andrae to hold ground that none of them can hold, which means the kill has to concede the paint and trust the goaltending. Given who is in the crease, that is the least comfortable arrangement on this roster.