Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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64

David Kampf

Toronto Maple Leafs Center

Undrafted, no power-play goals in 477 games, and the lowest chance share of any forward on the club.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18CHI464711-912000468.712:48
2018-19CHI6341519-614000725.613:55
2019-20CHI708816-118012908.913:40
2020-21CHI5611112-320000631.614:40
2021-22TOR82111526+122002110210.815:16
2022-23TOR8272027+680011076.515:18
2023-24TOR7881119-4180017910.113:29
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—4774387130-151000355597.714:16

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

78 games, 8 goals and 11 assists for 19 points, none on the power play, 18 penalty minutes, 13:29 a night and minus-4, with 1 game-winner. He took 44.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 851 minutes — the 22nd percentile and the lowest share of any forward on the club — and his ice went 26-34 against an expectation of 27.90-35.32.

Two goals of finishing below what the chances were worth and a goal of goaltending above them. Twenty-six goals for and thirty-four against in 851 minutes is the defensive assignment on a club that scored 303 goals.

The Finesse Game

94 attempts at a median of 29 feet with 38 per cent of them from inside twenty and 34 per cent from beyond forty, 71 of those on goal, converted at 10.1 per cent against a career 7.69 across 559 shots.

Zero power-play goals in 477 career games. There is no offensive dimension here and the club has never asked for one; 87 career assists in seven seasons is what a defensive centre produces when everything he does happens in his own end.

The Physical Game

He is 6-2 and 198 and took 18 penalty minutes.

One hundred career penalty minutes in 477 games. He wins defensive-zone pucks with position and stick rather than with contact, which is why a centre taking the hardest minutes on the club takes eighteen penalty minutes a season.

The Intangibles

Undrafted, seven seasons, and Toronto is his second organisation.

Three career shorthanded goals and a career minus-15 across seven seasons of the defensive-zone shift. He was undrafted, reached the league at 22, and has played 477 games doing a job nobody else volunteers for.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    34.0% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 97th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • durable· was available

    78 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    29% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 2nd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “He wins defensive-zone pucks with position and stick rather than with contact, which is why a centre taking the hardest minutes on the club takes eighteen penalty minutes a season.”

  • playmakerhe lacks it· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “There is no offensive dimension here and the club has never asked for one; 87 career assists in seven seasons is what a defensive centre produces when everything he does happens in his own end.”

  • undrafteda strength· arrived without a pick attached

    “He was undrafted, reached the league at 22, and has played 477 games doing a job nobody else volunteers for.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 851 minutes

Expected goals
44.1%
16th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
46.9%
27th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 26 for, 34 against. Expected: 27.9 and 35.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
67th
Numbers
16th

The report ranks him 51 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 73 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 78 games

Top speed
22.6 mph
74th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
1.23 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.18 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
85.5 mph
41st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 851 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
TOR took 52.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 44.1% — 8.0 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 851 minutes at five-on-five — 44th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Noah Gregor41.6%47.2%43.2%
TJ Brodie41.8%45.7%51.4%
Morgan Rielly40.8%46.0%52.1%

41.6% together, 47.2% for him apart and 43.2% for Gregor apart. He was better away from Gregor, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Gregor.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

94 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 8 of them goals. His median goal came from 8 feet. 38% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 34% from beyond forty.