Toronto Maple Leafs

What the Quant Says

268 goals, 9th in the league, and 21st at creating chances at even strength at 2.430 expected goals per 60. At five-on-five the club scored 162 against an expectation of 149.4 — 12.6 goals better, 7th in the league in finishing.

William Nylander scored 45 goals with 8 game-winners, John Tavares 38 at 34, Auston Matthews 33 in 67 games and Matthew Knies 29 at 22. Bobby McMann, undrafted, scored 20 from a third line.

The shot charts are the thing to look at. Matthew Knies took 62 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet at a median of 14 feet — the most extreme net-front profile of any forward in this edition. John Tavares took 55 per cent from inside 20 and 8 per cent from beyond 40. Both converted at more than 19 per cent, and neither of those rates is luck in the way a distance shooter's is.

Auston Matthews took 261 shots in 67 games — the highest rate on the roster — and converted 12.6 per cent of them from a median of 26 feet, a year after scoring 69 goals.

What the Scout Says

Two of the purest goalscorers in the league and a 232-pound winger who does the work that gets them the puck.

William Nylander's hands at speed are the best on the club. He carries the puck through the neutral zone at full pace without losing it, he changes his angle mid-stride, and he beats a defenceman one-on-one more often than anybody here. He also took 26 penalty minutes in 82 games and does not win a puck on a wall.

Auston Matthews's release is the best in hockey — he beats a goaltender from the top of the circle without a screen, which almost nobody can do — and he took 261 shots in 67 games.

Matthew Knies takes 62 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet and John Tavares 55. Between them they are the reason this club scores from the paint at all, and Tavares at 34 cannot skate and does not need to.

Max Domi threw 25 assists at fourteen minutes a night by holding the puck longer than a 5-10 forward should be able to. Bobby McMann is undrafted and scored 20 goals with 14 assists, which is the limitation exactly.

What the Quant Says

231 goals against, 8th in the league, and 13th in even-strength expected goals against at 2.431 per 60. Middling process, good results, and the difference is 15.2 goals of goaltending.

Chris Tanev is undrafted, 36 years old, took 43 shot attempts all season — the lowest volume of any regular defenceman in this edition — and finished plus-31 with the 85th percentile of chances. He blocks shots at a rate among the highest in the league and has done for fifteen seasons.

Jake McCabe finished plus-23 at the 76th percentile against the hardest matchups the club faced. Brandon Carlo, 6-5, was acquired at the deadline from Boston, and his ice conceded six fewer goals than the chances predicted.

Morgan Rielly's ice scored 40 goals at five-on-five against an expectation of 54.06 — fourteen missing on the ice of the club's most offensive defenceman, which is the strangest number in this chapter. Simon Benoit's went the other way entirely: 42-34 against an expectation of 35.58-44.05.

What the Scout Says

The largest and most disciplined blue line this club has had, and its most offensive defenceman had the strangest season on it.

Chris Tanev took 43 shot attempts in 75 games — the lowest volume of any regular defenceman in this edition — and finished plus-31. He clears the front of his own net, defends the rush by standing men up at the blue line, and does it without leaving his feet. He is undrafted and he is 36.

Jake McCabe is among the hardest-hitting defencemen in the league — he finishes every check, clears his crease by force, and blocks shots, and he takes the first-line matchup every night.

Brandon Carlo at 6-5 defends the rush with reach almost nobody can beat and has 29 goals in 637 career games. Under a heavy forecheck the exits stop and he chips it off the wall, which is the pairing's one real cost.

Morgan Rielly is the puck-mover — 34 assists, and he carries it out rather than passing it out — and he does not clear a crease and never has. Simon Benoit is 6-4 and took 59 penalty minutes with the worst chance share on the roster.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 15.2 goals better than the chances faced, 6th in the league.

Anthony Stolarz went 21-8-3 with a .9257, a 2.14 average and 4 shutouts in 34 games — the best save percentage on the roster and among the best in the league. He is 6-6 and 248 pounds, the largest goaltender in this edition, and he sets at the top of the crease and lets the frame take the net away. He has never played more than 34 games in a season.

Joseph Woll went 27-14-1 with a .9087 in 42 games, which is the first season of his career in which he has played more than thirty. The glove is genuinely very good and the rebound control is the ordinary part.

Both of them have been injured in almost every season they have played. Cayden Primeau was acquired from Montreal off an .836 in eleven games — the worst save percentage of anybody in this edition.

What the Scout Says

The largest goaltender in this book and the smallest sample of any starter in it.

Anthony Stolarz is 6-6 and 248 pounds and plays deep and enormous. He sets at the top of the crease and the frame takes almost the entire net away without him moving for it. The rebound control is good for a goaltender built this way, which is the thing that usually goes wrong at that size, and the lateral recovery is the cost — a second chance from the far post is a long way for him.

Joseph Woll is 6-3 and athletic rather than blocking. He relies on quickness in the crease rather than on covering the net, the glove is genuinely very good, and the rebound control is the ordinary part.

Neither has played a full season and both have been hurt in almost every one. Cayden Primeau is 6-3 and conventional and slow, the rebound control is poor and the lateral recovery is not quick enough to cover it, and he posted an .836 in eleven games.

What the Quant Says

6th in the league at 7.809 expected goals per 60, over 4:26 a night. One of the better units in hockey, on the 22nd-most power-play time.

William Nylander and John Tavares scored 12 power-play goals each and Auston Matthews 10. Matthew Knies added 5 from the front of the net.

The construction has been the same for years: Matthews in the left circle, Nylander at the top, Tavares in the paint, Rielly at the point. What it lost in the summer is the man on the half wall who made the entries, and there is nobody on the roster with that particular skill.

Matias Maccelli was acquired from Utah — 93 assists in 224 NHL games, a genuine playmaker at 25 — and that is not an accident of timing.

What the Scout Says

A very good unit that has just lost the man who ran the entry.

John Tavares in the blue paint is the whole shape of it. He is 6-1 and 217, he does not move, and 12 of his 38 goals came a man up. Matthew Knies is the alternative and he is 232 pounds.

Auston Matthews's one-timer from the left circle still has to be respected the instant the puck reaches him, and William Nylander at the top of the umbrella beats a box by carrying rather than by passing. Morgan Rielly distributes from the point.

What is gone is the half-wall passer who got the puck to any of them against a set kill, and there is nobody on this roster who does that job. Matias Maccelli has 93 assists in 224 NHL games and was acquired for a conditional pick, which is the club trying to buy the skill at a hundredth of the price.

What the Quant Says

19th in the league at 7.119 expected goals against per 60, over 5:04 a game — the 3rd-most shorthanded time of any club in hockey. A below-average unit doing more of it than almost anybody.

Auston Matthews scored 2 shorthanded goals and Scott Laughton and Steven Lorentz do most of the rest of it. Lorentz took 9 penalty minutes in 80 games, which is among the lowest totals of any regular in this edition.

On the blue line it is Tanev and Carlo — 6-3 and 6-5, both of whom defend the rush by standing men up rather than by backing off, and both of whom essentially never foul.

The volume is the problem and it is the roster's own. Max Domi took 76 penalty minutes in 74 games, Simon Benoit 59 in 78, Oliver Ekman-Larsson 52 in 77 and Matthew Knies 43 in 78. A club that is 15th at suppressing chances at even strength cannot also be third in the league at giving away power plays.

What the Scout Says

Two very large, very disciplined defencemen, and the third-heaviest shorthanded workload in hockey.

Chris Tanev and Brandon Carlo are 6-3 and 6-5 and neither of them fouls — 24 and 37 penalty minutes across 158 games. Both defend the rush by standing men up at the blue line and both block shots at a high rate, and a four-man box built out of that much reach is larger than it looks.

Up front, Steven Lorentz took 9 penalty minutes in 80 games and is a first-unit killer at 6-4. Scott Laughton was acquired at the deadline for exactly this. Auston Matthews scored 2 shorthanded goals, which says how far up the ice the trust extends.

And then the volume, which the club created itself. Max Domi took 76 penalty minutes, Simon Benoit 59, Oliver Ekman-Larsson 52 and Matthew Knies 43, and 5:04 a game shorthanded is the third-most in the league.