Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

19

Connor Dewar

Toronto Maple Leafs Center

Four career shorthanded goals in 190 games, at 5-10 and 187 pounds.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22MIN35246-425001444.59:54
2022-23MIN8161218-550030876.910:58
2023-24MIN/TOR7411819-8280107714.311:39
2024-25 so far
Career190192443-171030412089.111:02

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

74 games across Minnesota and Toronto, 11 goals and 8 assists for 19 points, 1 shorthanded, 28 penalty minutes, 11:39 a night and minus-8. He took 47.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 698 minutes, the 35th percentile, and his ice went 21-29 against an expectation of 22.69-25.03.

Two goals of finishing below what the chances were worth and four more conceded than they called for. Eleven goals is a career high by five.

The Finesse Game

111 attempts at a median of 26 feet with 32 per cent of them from inside twenty, 77 of those on goal, converted at 14.3 per cent against a career 9.13 across 208 shots.

Nineteen career goals and 24 assists in 190 games. He shot 14.3 per cent last season against a career 9.13, which is the whole of the difference between 11 goals and the 6 he scored the season before; there is no creation in his game and there never has been.

The Physical Game

He is 5-10 and 187 and took 28 penalty minutes.

103 career penalty minutes in 190 games. He is small and forechecks flat out anyway, finishing checks on men who outweigh him by thirty pounds, and the penalty rate is what a 5-10 forward pays for playing that way.

The Intangibles

Ninety-second overall in 2018 by Minnesota, three seasons, and Toronto is his second organisation.

Four career shorthanded goals in 190 games and a career minus-17. He was a third-round pick who reached the league at 22 and has been a fourth-line penalty killer since.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 698 minutes

Expected goals
47.5%
35th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
46.8%
26th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 21 for, 29 against. Expected: 22.7 and 25.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
76th
Numbers
35th

The report ranks him 41 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 75 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with MIN · 524 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
TOR took 52.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.5% — 4.6 below the club he did it on.
The role
698 minutes at five-on-five — 31st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Brandon Duhaime45.8%49.9%45.5%
Jake Middleton48.1%47.4%48.3%
Brock Faber51.6%46.0%50.4%

45.8% together, 49.9% for him apart and 45.5% for Duhaime apart. He was better away from Duhaime, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Duhaime.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

111 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 11 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 32% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 23% from beyond forty.