Detroit Red Wings

What the Quant Says

278 goals, 9th in the league, on the 27th-best rate of chance creation at even strength — 2.341 expected goals per 60. Those two numbers do not belong to the same club and the reconciliation is the whole season.

At five-on-five the club scored 177 goals against an expectation of 148.4 — a finishing surplus of 28.6 goals, the largest in the league. No club in this edition converted its chances at anything like this rate.

Lucas Raymond had 72 points at 22, with 31 goals on 163 shots — a 19.02 per cent conversion, one of the eight highest in this edition among players who took a hundred shots. Dylan Larkin had 69 points in 68 games with 33 goals and 14 on the power play. Alex DeBrincat had 67 with 27 goals on 237 shots.

J.T. Compher scored 19 goals on 108 shots — 17.59 per cent — from a median of 16 feet. Patrick Kane had 47 points in 50 games at 35. Vladimir Tarasenko arrives from Florida with 55 points and a 14.84 per cent conversion.

Six of the club's regulars shot better than 13 per cent. That is not a style and it is not repeatable.

What the Scout Says

Six men shooting better than they can, arranged around a 22-year-old and a 35-year-old.

Lucas Raymond converted 19.02 per cent of 163 shots at 22, from a median of 24 feet with 43 per cent from inside 20. He goes to the dangerous ice and he finishes, and a career 14.76 per cent across 481 shots says the rate is high rather than fictional. He had 41 assists — 103 in 238 career games — and he handles the puck at speed and beats a defenceman on the entry.

Dylan Larkin skates as well as any centre in the league and took 221 shots in 68 games from a median of 26 feet with 38 per cent from inside 20. He had 14 power-play goals and 33 in total, both career highs, and 212 goals in 652 games.

Alex DeBrincat is 5-8 and 180 and took 237 shots, more than anybody on the club, from a median of 27 feet. He has 214 goals in 532 career games at 13.96 per cent and 74 career power-play goals.

J.T. Compher shoots from a median of 16 feet with 56 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 — the most net-front profile on the roster — and converted 17.59 per cent.

Patrick Kane had 47 points in 50 games at 35 and scored 7 game-winners, the third-best rate in this edition. Vladimir Tarasenko has 293 goals in 751 games.

What the Quant Says

274 goals against, 24th in the league, on the 27th-best chance suppression at even strength — 2.741 expected goals against per 60. Here the numbers agree, which is the unwelcome half of the arithmetic.

At five-on-five the club conceded 189 goals against an expectation of 174.9.

Moritz Seider played 82 games at 22:22 a night and took 43.4 per cent of the expected goals — the 12th percentile. His ice went 62-69 against an expectation of 51.22-66.45, which is five goals of suppression better than the chances and four goals of shooting better as well, and a minus-7 anyway.

Ben Chiarot played 19:47 at 44.9 per cent, Jeff Petry 18:48 at 47.6 at 36, and Olli Maatta 16:03 at 49.0. The three of them are 33, 36 and 30 and the club's best defenceman is 23.

Erik Gustafsson arrives from New York with 31 points and a 53.7 per cent chance share — the best mark on this roster, produced somewhere else. Jake Walman went to San Jose and Shayne Gostisbehere to Carolina.

What the Scout Says

A twenty-three-year-old playing twenty-two minutes in front of three men over thirty, and a chance share in the 12th percentile.

Moritz Seider plays 22:22 a night and carries the puck out of his own zone rather than passing it out, at 6-2 and 210. He has 113 assists in 246 career games, which is a genuine first-pair playmaking rate at 23, and he took 43.4 per cent of the expected goals doing it — the 12th percentile, against the other club's best line every night on a roster ranked 27th at suppressing chances.

Ben Chiarot blocks shots and punishes people, at 6-3 and 222 with 458 penalty minutes in 642 games. He clears the front of his own net and he is not quick enough to defend a rush cleanly any more.

Jeff Petry is 36 and has a career minus-126 across 937 games — the third-worst figure of any defenceman in this edition — most of it accumulated on clubs that could not keep the puck. He walks the line and moves it, with 282 career assists.

Olli Maatta is 30 and took 14 penalty minutes in 72 games — he defends by position and has done for eleven seasons. Erik Gustafsson arrives with 177 assists in 455 games and the best chance share on the roster. Justin Holl is 6-4 and scored no goals in 38 games, and has 11 in 323 career ones.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 14.1 goals worse than the chances faced, 25th in the league, behind the 27th-best chance suppression in hockey. A bad crease behind a bad structure is how a club scoring 278 goals concedes 274.

Alex Lyon went 21-18-5 with a .9042, a 3.05 average and 2 shutouts in 44 games, facing 1,325 shots. He is undrafted, carries a career .9035 across 83 games, and this was the first season anybody has given him more than twenty starts.

Ville Husso went 9-5-2 with an .8921 and no shutouts in 19 games, facing 556 shots, against a career .9025 across 132.

Cam Talbot arrives at 37 having gone 27-20-6 with a .9128, a 2.50 average and 3 shutouts in 54 games in Los Angeles. He has 245 wins, 31 shutouts and a career .9135 across 486 games, and he is the single most experienced goaltender to change clubs this summer.

A .9135 career rate in front of the 27th-ranked suppression will not produce a .9135. It will produce something better than an .8921.

What the Scout Says

An undrafted 31-year-old given a starter's job for the first time, and a 37-year-old signed to take it away.

Alex Lyon is 6-1 and 199, undrafted, and plays deep and square rather than aggressively. He had played 39 games in six seasons before last year and then played 44 in one. A .9042 across 1,325 shots behind the 27th-ranked chance suppression in hockey is a respectable season and it is also exactly his career .9035.

The rebound control is the weakness and on a club that concedes from the slot it is the wrong weakness to have.

Cam Talbot is 6-3 and 202, undrafted, and 37 years old with 486 games, 245 wins, 31 shutouts and a career .9135. He plays a positional game and has for eleven seasons — he does not chase and he does not overcommit.

Ville Husso is 6-3 and 205 with a career .9025 across 132 games and posted an .8921 in 19. The lateral recovery has gone and the two seasons since he arrived in Detroit have been worse than the two before it.

What the Quant Says

10th in the league at 7.623 expected goals per 60, over 5:29 a night — the seventh-most power-play time in hockey. This is the one unit that works and the club leans on it hard.

Dylan Larkin scored 14 power-play goals and Alex DeBrincat 11 — twenty-five between two men on a club that finished 27th at creating chances at even strength. Lucas Raymond scored 6, J.T. Compher 5, Vladimir Tarasenko 3, Joe Veleno 3, Moritz Seider 3 and Patrick Kane 2.

Patrick Kane has 126 career power-play goals and 813 career assists, and the unit is arranged around him holding the puck on the half-wall until somebody moves. Alex DeBrincat is 5-8 and 180 and takes 28 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet — he plays the far circle and shoots.

Dylan Larkin takes 38 per cent from inside 20 at a median of 26 and goes to the net.

Vladimir Tarasenko adds 69 career power-play goals. For a club with these underlying numbers, five and a half minutes a night of this is a large share of the season.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-five power-play goals from two men, and the seventh-most power-play time in hockey.

Patrick Kane holds the puck on the half-wall until somebody moves, and 126 career power-play goals and 813 career assists are what that patience has produced. At 35 the legs are gone and the hands and the eyes are not, and this is the one situation where that combination is still enough.

Dylan Larkin scored 14 power-play goals and goes to the net, taking 38 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet. Alex DeBrincat scored 11 from the far circle at 5-8, with 74 career power-play goals.

Lucas Raymond scored 6 and J.T. Compher 5 from in front. Moritz Seider scored 3 from the point and Vladimir Tarasenko arrives with 69 career power-play goals.

Tenth in the league, and on this roster it is the only unit that is above average at anything.

What the Quant Says

28th in the league at 8.130 expected goals against per 60, over 4:52 a game. On a club that is 27th at suppressing chances at even strength, the shorthanded unit is worse than the even-strength one.

J.T. Compher scored 2 shorthanded goals and has 8 in 500 career games. Dylan Larkin scored 2 and Tyler Motte 2. Andrew Copp, Michael Rasmussen and Christian Fischer scored one each.

Tyler Motte arrives from Tampa Bay with 6 career shorthanded goals in 400 games and is a specialist — 9 points in 69 games last season and a career 90 in 400.

Michael Rasmussen is 6-6 and 222 and clears the front of his own net. Ben Chiarot blocks shots and punishes people, with 458 penalty minutes in 642 games.

Austin Watson took 93 penalty minutes in 33 games — the highest rate of any player in this edition — and 705 in 515 across his career. A club with the 28th-ranked penalty kill has signed the man who will put it on the ice more often.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-eighth in the league, and a summer spent signing men who take penalties.

J.T. Compher has 8 career shorthanded goals in 500 games and scored 2 last season. Tyler Motte arrives from Tampa Bay with 6 in 400 games and is a pure specialist — 90 career points in 400 games and a job description with one line in it.

Michael Rasmussen is 6-6 and 222 and clears the front of his own net, which is most of what a twenty-eighth-ranked kill has to offer. Ben Chiarot blocks shots.

Austin Watson took 93 penalty minutes in 33 games — the highest rate of any player in this edition. He will fight anybody and he takes liberties, and on a club whose penalty kill is 28th in the league that is a genuine cost rather than a colour note.

Olli Maatta took 14 penalty minutes in 72 games and Vladimir Tarasenko 12 in 76. The discipline is there at the top of the roster and the structure underneath it is not.