This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Dylan Larkin
Detroit Red Wings Center
Thirty-three goals and fourteen on the power play in sixty-eight games, from a Michigan captain with a career minus-87.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | DET | 80 | 23 | 22 | 45 | +11 | 34 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 221 | 10.4 | 16:33 |
| 2016-17 | DET | 80 | 17 | 15 | 32 | -28 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 178 | 9.6 | 16:09 |
| 2017-18 | DET | 82 | 16 | 47 | 63 | -9 | 61 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 232 | 6.9 | 19:51 |
| 2018-19 | DET | 76 | 32 | 41 | 73 | -6 | 75 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 287 | 11.2 | 21:51 |
| 2019-20 | DET | 71 | 19 | 34 | 53 | -21 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 223 | 8.5 | 21:15 |
| 2020-21 | DET | 44 | 9 | 14 | 23 | -14 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 134 | 6.7 | 20:24 |
| 2021-22 | DET | 71 | 31 | 38 | 69 | -18 | 47 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 212 | 14.6 | 19:39 |
| 2022-23 | DET | 80 | 32 | 47 | 79 | -7 | 45 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 244 | 13.1 | 19:33 |
| 2023-24 | DET | 68 | 33 | 36 | 69 | +5 | 39 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 221 | 14.9 | 20:10 |
| 2024-25 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 652 | 212 | 294 | 506 | -87 | 411 | 59 | 8 | 28 | 1952 | 10.9 | 19:23 |
This Season So Far
The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
Sixty-eight games, 33 goals and 36 assists for 69 points, 14 on the power play and 2 shorthanded, 20:10 a night and plus-5. He converted 14.93 per cent of 221 shots against a career 10.86 across 1,952.
He took 50.3 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 977 minutes, the 55th percentile, and his ice went 55-50 against an expectation of 43.03-42.44. On a club that took 51.6 per cent of the shot attempts, a first-line centre at 50.9 is doing real work.
The Finesse Game
He skates as well as any centre in the league. The first three strides are the fastest thing on this roster and the entries are made by beating a defenceman outright rather than by passing to get past him.
Two hundred and twenty-one shots in 68 games from a median of 26 feet with 38 per cent from inside 20. A career 10.86 per cent across 1,952 shots says the 14.93 was a shooting season rather than a new level, and 212 goals in 652 games says the volume is the durable part.
Two hundred and ninety-four career assists. The passing is good and the shot is the first option.
The Physical Game
He is 6-1 and 204 and he forechecks hard, and 411 penalty minutes in 652 games is a high rate for a first-line centre.
He goes to the front of the net and takes what comes with it, and he answers for teammates more often than a club’s best player usually does. He is not big enough to win the wall against heavy defencemen.
The Intangibles
The 15th pick in 2014 out of Waterford, Michigan, nine seasons in one organisation, 652 games and the captaincy of the club he grew up watching.
A career minus-87 across 652 games is the whole of Detroit’s decade and none of it is his. He is 28 and has played every one of those games for a club that has not made the playoffs.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there
50.3% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 44.3% for his club in the minutes he sat: +6.0, 90th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it
“The first three strides are the fastest thing on this roster and the entries are made by beating a defenceman outright rather than by passing to get past him.”
“He is 6-1 and 204 and he forechecks hard, and 411 penalty minutes in 652 games is a high rate for a first-line centre.”
“The 15th pick in 2014 out of Waterford, Michigan, nine seasons in one organisation, 652 games and the captaincy of the club he grew up watching.”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 977 minutes
- Expected goals
- 50.3%
- 55th pct
- Shot attempts
- 51.6%
- 69th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 55 for, 50 against. Expected: 43.0 and 42.4.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe report ranks him 21 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 75 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 68 games
- Top speed
- 22.6 mph
- 73rd pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 2.71 a game
- Distance
- 3.21 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 94.2 mph
- 88th pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 84.5
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2023-24 · 977 minutes at five-on-five
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2023-24
- The club
- DET took 45.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.3% — 4.4 above the club he did it on.
- The role
- First line, 977 minutes at five-on-five — 55th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Raymond | 50.1% | 50.9% | 45.3% |
| Alex DeBrincat | 52.5% | 47.5% | 46.3% |
| Moritz Seider | 45.7% | 54.3% | 42.5% |
50.1% together, 50.9% for him apart and 45.3% for Raymond apart. Raymond was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Raymond than for him.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
304 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 30 of them goals. His median goal came from 19 feet. 38% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 21% from beyond forty.