Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

96

Jake Walman

San Jose Sharks Defense

Twelve goals from the blue line in 63 games, at 11.1 per cent.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20STL1000+1000010.011:04
2020-21STL24112-78000472.114:28
2021-22STL/DET513710-310000873.514:02
2022-23DET639918+10450021406.419:43
2023-24DET6312921-24410310811.119:46
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—202252651-11071053836.517:38

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

63 games with Detroit, 12 goals and 9 assists for 21 points, 1 on the power play, 44 penalty minutes, 19:46 a night and minus-2, with 3 game-winners. He took 42.3 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,010 minutes, the 16th percentile, and his ice went 46-55 against an expectation of 36.24-49.42.

Ten goals of finishing above what the chances were worth — the highest such figure of anybody on this roster — and six more conceded than they called for. Twelve goals from a defenceman in 63 games is a career total for most men in the position.

The Finesse Game

155 attempts at a median of 53 feet with 72 per cent of them from beyond forty and 8 per cent from inside twenty, 105 of those on goal, converted at 11.1 per cent against a career 6.53 across 383 shots.

Twenty-five career goals in 202 games. Twelve goals on 108 shots from the point is a rate no defenceman sustains, and the honest reading is that the shot is genuinely heavy and the season was genuinely lucky; the career 6.53 per cent is closer to the truth.

The Physical Game

He is 6-1 and 218 and took 44 penalty minutes.

107 career penalty minutes in 202 games. He is solidly built and skates well enough to close a gap without reaching, and he finishes the check when it is there rather than hunting for it.

The Intangibles

Eighty-second overall in 2014 by St. Louis, five seasons, three organisations, and 51 points in 202 games.

A career minus-1 in 202 games. He did not play more than 25 games in a season until he was 26 and has scored 21 goals in the two since, which for a third-round pick from 2014 is a genuine second act.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-shot· beats a goaltender from range

    5 of 112 attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 4.5%, 91st percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.21) · 16% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He is solidly built and skates well enough to close a gap without reaching, and he finishes the check when it is there rather than hunting for it.”

  • net-fronthe lacks it· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “Twelve goals on 108 shots from the point is a rate no defenceman sustains, and the honest reading is that the shot is genuinely heavy and the season was genuinely lucky; the career 6.53 per cent is closer to the truth.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,010 minutes

Expected goals
42.3%
9th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
45.5%
20th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 46 for, 55 against. Expected: 36.2 and 49.4.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
72nd
Numbers
9th

The report ranks him 63 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 74 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 63 games

Top speed
22.3 mph
75th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
0.62 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.62 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
101.6 mph
98th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with DET · 1010 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
DET took 45.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 42.3% — 3.6 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 1,010 minutes at five-on-five — 59th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Moritz Seider42.6%40.9%44.8%
Lucas Raymond43.0%41.9%50.8%
Dylan Larkin45.4%40.7%53.0%

42.6% together, 40.9% for him apart and 44.8% for Seider apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

155 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 12 of them goals. His median goal came from 37 feet. 8% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 72% from beyond forty.