Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

84

William Lagesson

Detroit Red Wings Defense

No goals in a hundred career games, and the second-best chance share on this roster.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20EDM8000-4000080.011:52
2020-21EDM1902209000110.014:09
2021-22EDM/MTL33055+313000330.012:35
2023-24TOR/ANA40044+332000190.014:48
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—10001111+254000710.013:43

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

Forty games in Anaheim, no goals and 4 assists, 32 penalty minutes, 14:48 a night and plus-3. He took 51.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 542 minutes, the 67th percentile, and his ice went 17-16 against an expectation of 20.68-19.19.

A 51.9 per cent chance share on the club that finished 30th in the league is a genuinely odd number and it is the second-best on this roster. Forty games is a small sample and it is the reason he has a job.

The Finesse Game

No goals in 40 games and none in 100 career games on 71 shots. Nineteen shots last season at a median of 54 feet with nothing at all from inside 20.

Eleven career assists. There is no offensive game of any kind and there has never been the pretence of one.

The Physical Game

He is 6-2 and 211 and finishes his checks. Thirty-two penalty minutes in 40 games is a high rate for a third-pair defenceman and most of it is contact rather than sticks.

He clears the front of his own net and he blocks shots, which is the entire job description and the whole reason a man with no points is in the league.

The Intangibles

A fourth-round pick in 2014 out of Gothenburg, four partial seasons and 100 games across Edmonton, Montreal and Anaheim. He is plus-2 across all of them.

He is the seventh defenceman. Detroit will play him twenty games and he will not score in any of them.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    51.9% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 45.0% for his club in the minutes he sat: +6.9, 98th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • clears-the-creasea strength· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He clears the front of his own net and he blocks shots, which is the entire job description and the whole reason a man with no points is in the league.”

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He is 6-2 and 211 and finishes his checks.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 542 minutes

Expected goals
51.9%
67th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.3%
50th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 17 for, 16 against. Expected: 20.7 and 19.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
1st
Numbers
67th

The numbers rank him 66 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 50 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 40 games

Top speed
21.1 mph
26th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
0.15 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.95 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
88.9 mph
33rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with TOR · 404 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
ANA took 45.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.9% — 6.0 above the club he did it on.
The role
542 minutes at five-on-five — 20th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Max Domi52.7%51.6%50.3%
John Tavares54.6%51.1%55.3%
Tyler Bertuzzi63.5%48.3%55.2%

52.7% together, 51.6% for him apart and 50.3% for Domi apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

28 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 0 of them goals. 0% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 75% from beyond forty.