Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

14

Tyler Motte

Detroit Red Wings Center

Nine points in sixty-nine games, six career shorthanded goals, and one job done properly.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17CHI33437+214000468.711:23
2017-18CBJ/VAN46527-46000647.811:13
2018-19VAN749716-12100211147.912:46
2019-20VAN34448-10100003810.513:07
2020-21VAN246390140014015.016:01
2021-22VAN/NYR587815+2220111016.914:01
2022-23OTT/NYR6281119+360111097.312:35
2023-24TBL69639-828022837.212:27
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—400494190-271100665958.212:48

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

Sixty-nine games in Tampa Bay, 6 goals and 3 assists with 2 shorthanded, 12:27 a night and minus-8. He converted 7.23 per cent of 83 shots against a career 8.24 across 595.

He took 47.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 716 minutes, the 34th percentile, and his ice went 14-26 against an expectation of 20.44-22.68. Twenty goals of scoring above expectation in 716 minutes is the largest gap on this roster and it is entirely the club he played for: Tampa Bay had the worst goaltending in the league and one of the better shooting groups.

The Finesse Game

Eighty-three shots at a median of 26 feet, and 6 went in. Forty-nine goals and 41 assists in 400 career games — that is 90 points in eight seasons and nobody has ever pretended otherwise.

There is no puck skill to describe. The value is entirely elsewhere.

The Physical Game

The skating is the game — he is among the quicker forwards in the league over the first three strides and he uses it to pressure rather than to attack.

He kills penalties and has 6 career shorthanded goals in 400 games, and he blocks shots at 5-10 and 194. One hundred and ten penalty minutes in 400 career games is a very low rate for a man who is in everybody’s way for a living.

The Intangibles

A fourth-round pick in 2013 out of St Clair, Michigan, three years at Michigan, and 400 games as a penalty-killing fourth-line winger across five clubs.

Detroit’s penalty kill was 28th in the league. He is a specialist signed to fix one thing and he is playing at home.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “He kills penalties and has 6 career shorthanded goals in 400 games, and he blocks shots at 5-10 and 194.”

  • shot-blockera strength· gets in front of it

    “He kills penalties and has 6 career shorthanded goals in 400 games, and he blocks shots at 5-10 and 194.”

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “The skating is the game — he is among the quicker forwards in the league over the first three strides and he uses it to pressure rather than to attack.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 716 minutes

Expected goals
47.4%
34th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49%
46th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 14 for, 26 against. Expected: 20.4 and 22.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
15th
Numbers
34th

The two rank him within 19 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 60 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 69 games

Top speed
23.1 mph
90th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
1.58 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.01 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
88.6 mph
62nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with TBL · 716 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
TBL took 50.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.4% — 3.1 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 716 minutes at five-on-five — 32nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Luke Glendening38.5%53.0%35.9%
Nick Perbix47.7%47.3%51.5%
Darren Raddysh52.5%45.1%52.4%

38.5% together, 53.0% for him apart and 35.9% for Glendening apart. He was better away from Glendening, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Glendening.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

111 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 6 of them goals. His median goal came from 20 feet. 38% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 22% from beyond forty.