Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2025-26 report →

57

David Perron

Ottawa Senators Left Wing

Seventeen seasons, 768 points and 825 penalty minutes, and a twenty-sixth-overall pick who outlasted his draft class.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2007-08STL62131427+16383016819.112:33
2008-09STL81153550+13504031619.314:32
2009-10STL82202747-106051216612.016:09
2010-11STL10527+7120002917.218:25
2011-12STL57212142+192851411418.418:17
2012-13STL481015250442028411.918:00
2013-14EDM78282957-169081222012.719:08
2014-15EDM/PIT81172441-25623021968.717:20
2015-16PIT/ANA71122436-1624011478.215:13
2016-17STL82182846-25431315111.917:18
2017-18VGK70165066+15010412512.817:49
2018-19STL57232346+34670111220.517:06
2019-20STL71253560+25290916615.118:19
2020-21STL56193958+62260215112.618:33
2021-22STL67273057+848110217715.316:59
2022-23DET82243256-75260319512.316:55
2023-24DET76173047-125570415111.315:38
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—1131310458768+282584445241312.816:50

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

76 games for Detroit, 17 goals and 30 assists for 47 points, 7 on the power play, 55 penalty minutes, 15:38 a night and minus-12, with 4 game-winners. He took 43.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 942 minutes, the 13th percentile, and his ice went 39-45 against an expectation of 31.24-40.78.

Eight goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and four more conceded than they called for. A 13th percentile chance share carried by finishing is the shape of a 36-year-old winger’s season.

The Finesse Game

197 attempts at a median of 28 feet with 32 per cent of them from inside twenty, 151 of those on goal, converted at 11.3 per cent against a career 12.85 across 2,413 shots.

458 career assists in 1,131 games and 84 career power-play goals. He plays the wall and the half-boards on the power play, holds pucks longer than a man his age should be able to, and has scored between 17 and 27 goals in ten different seasons.

The Physical Game

He is 6-0 and 202 and took 55 penalty minutes.

825 career penalty minutes in 1,131 games. He is not a heavy forechecker but he is a genuinely irritating one — he finishes checks along the wall, holds sticks, talks, and has spent seventeen seasons being the man the other bench complains about.

The Intangibles

Twenty-sixth overall in 2007 by St Louis, seventeen seasons, six organisations, 768 points in 1,131 games and a Stanley Cup in St Louis.

Four game-winners at 36 and 45 in his career. He arrived in Ottawa on the same summer as a goaltender and a second-pair defenceman, and the point of all three is to put experience around a roster whose best players are 22 and 25.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • clutch· scored his goals when the game was still live

    4 of his 17 goals late or in overtime, 98th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure barely repeats (0.06) · 10% keep it

  • agitatora strength· gets under the skin; draws the retaliation

    “He is not a heavy forechecker but he is a genuinely irritating one — he finishes checks along the wall, holds sticks, talks, and has spent seventeen seasons being the man the other bench complains about.”

  • wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line

    “He plays the wall and the half-boards on the power play, holds pucks longer than a man his age should be able to, and has scored between 17 and 27 goals in ten different seasons.”

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “Twenty-sixth overall in 2007 by St Louis, seventeen seasons, six organisations, 768 points in 1,131 games and a Stanley Cup in St Louis.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 942 minutes

Expected goals
43.4%
13th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
45.9%
22nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 39 for, 45 against. Expected: 31.2 and 40.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
51st
Numbers
13th

The report ranks him 38 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 70 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 76 games

Top speed
21.2 mph
13th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
0.34 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.35 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
85.9 mph
44th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with DET · 942 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
DET took 45.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 43.4% — 2.5 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 942 minutes at five-on-five — 51st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Moritz Seider42.7%43.8%43.8%
Ben Chiarot39.3%45.3%46.0%
Lucas Raymond48.1%41.2%48.2%

42.7% together, 43.8% for him apart and 43.8% for Seider apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

197 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 16 of them goals. His median goal came from 21 feet. 32% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 16% from beyond forty.