This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Lucas Raymond
Detroit Red Wings Left Wing
Seventy-two points at twenty-two on a 19.02 per cent conversion — the best young forward in this chapter and the one number in it that will not repeat.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | DET | 82 | 23 | 34 | 57 | -32 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 184 | 12.5 | 18:09 |
| 2022-23 | DET | 74 | 17 | 28 | 45 | -17 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 134 | 12.7 | 17:23 |
| 2023-24 | DET | 82 | 31 | 41 | 72 | -12 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 163 | 19.0 | 17:45 |
| 2024-25 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 238 | 71 | 103 | 174 | -61 | 70 | 16 | 0 | 10 | 481 | 14.8 | 17:46 |
This Season So Far
The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
All 82 games at 21, 31 goals and 41 assists for 72 points with 6 on the power play, 17:45 a night and minus-12. He converted 19.02 per cent of 163 shots — one of the eight highest rates in this edition among players who took a hundred shots — against a career 14.76 across 481.
He took 48.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,155 minutes, the 39th percentile, and his ice went 57-66 against an expectation of 45.97-49.47. Eleven extra goals against on the ice of the club’s best forward, on a roster ranked 27th at suppressing chances.
The Finesse Game
He handles the puck at speed and beats a defenceman on the entry, and the change of pace is the whole trick — he arrives at the blue line slower than the defenceman expects and leaves faster.
He shoots from a median of 24 feet with 43 per cent from inside 20, which is a genuine scoring profile rather than a perimeter one. A career 14.76 per cent across 481 shots is already an elite rate and the 19.02 last season is above even that.
Forty-one assists in 82 games and 103 in 238 career games. The passing is the equal of the shot and he throws pucks through seams from below the goal line.
The Physical Game
He is 5-11 and 186 and does not play a physical game. Thirty penalty minutes in 82 games is a low rate and there is nothing hostile in it.
He does not win the wall against defencemen and he does not retrieve. A career minus-61 in 238 games is mostly the clubs he has played for and partly a winger who does not defend.
The Intangibles
Fourth overall in 2020 out of Gothenburg, a 57-point season at 19, and 174 points in 238 games before he was 23.
He is 22 and the best player on a club that finished seventeenth. The conversion rate will fall and the 72 points will not fall as far, because the chances and the passing are real.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
- he lacks itraised, and he does not have it
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- clutch· scored his goals when the game was still live
7 of his 31 goals late or in overtime, 96th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure barely repeats (0.06) · 10% keep it
- durable· was available
82 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it
“He handles the puck at speed and beats a defenceman on the entry, and the change of pace is the whole trick — he arrives at the blue line slower than the defenceman expects and leaves faster.”
“The passing is the equal of the shot and he throws pucks through seams from below the goal line.”
“He does not win the wall against defencemen and he does not retrieve.”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,155 minutes
- Expected goals
- 48.2%
- 40th pct
- Shot attempts
- 49.1%
- 48th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 57 for, 66 against. Expected: 46.0 and 49.5.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe two rank him within 17 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.
Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 71 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 82 games
- Top speed
- 22.9 mph
- 84th pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 1.57 a game
- Distance
- 2.82 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 93.8 mph
- 87th pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 84.5
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2023-24 · 1155 minutes at five-on-five
- Dylan Larkin57%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2023-24
- The club
- DET took 45.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.2% — 2.3 above the club he did it on.
- The role
- First line, 1,155 minutes at five-on-five — 78th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Larkin | 50.1% | 45.3% | 50.9% |
| Moritz Seider | 42.1% | 53.1% | 44.3% |
| Alex DeBrincat | 51.2% | 46.0% | 48.1% |
50.1% together, 45.3% for him apart and 50.9% for Larkin apart. He was worse away from Larkin, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Larkin did.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
225 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 33 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 43% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 13% from beyond forty.