Detroit Red Wings

What the Quant Says

238 goals and 22nd in creating chances at even strength at 2.42 expected goals per 60, with a 26th-ranked chance share. The scoring is concentrated and the underlying creation is not there.

Lucas Raymond had 80 points at 23, Dylan Larkin 70 on 234 shots, and Alex DeBrincat 39 goals on 244 — three forwards at 70 or better on a club that scored 228. Patrick Kane added 59 at 36. Marco Kasper scored 19 as a 21-year-old rookie with half his shots taken from inside 20 feet.

The club finished 26th in finishing, 14.4 goals below expectation. Larkin's line was the worst-served: on-ice goals of 46-49 against an expected 49-44, which is 16 goals removed from a line that was winning its minutes.

What the Scout Says

Three men who can create and a fourth line's worth of everything else.

Raymond creates by delaying rather than by beating anybody wide, and at 186 pounds with no defensive game he needs a centre who wins pucks. Larkin is that man and takes 234 shots doing it, 40 per cent of them from inside 20 feet — he drives to the net rather than settling. DeBrincat finds the half-second of space a defender needs to close and does nothing at all away from the puck.

Patrick Kane sees a pass nobody else is looking for and delays until the lane opens rather than forcing it, and everything he produces now happens in a small area with the puck on his stick. Marco Kasper is the most encouraging player in this chapter: a direct, hard-skating centre who gets to the interior, wins pucks below the goal line, and already takes half his shots from inside 20 feet at 21.

Below that the club is short. J.T. Compher was the worst possession forward on the roster at the 12th percentile. Jonatan Berggren handles the puck well under pressure and defers when a play needs to be made, and two coaching staffs have declined to commit to him. Elmer Söderblom is 6-8 and 252 and immovable at the net front with hands that work in tight, and cannot keep pace with a fast transition.

What the Quant Says

259 goals conceded and 21st in even-strength expected goals against at 2.59 per 60, with a 25th-ranked shot-attempt share.

Moritz Seider played 25:04 a night across 82 games, took every hard assignment, and posted 48.8 per cent with on-ice goals of 50-66. Simon Edvinsson, at 22 and 6-6, was plus-12 on a club that was minus-23 — the best rating on the roster — in 21 minutes a night.

Then it thins fast. Ben Chiarot played 1,449 minutes at 34 with a 45 per cent chance share, the 15th percentile, and took 69 penalty minutes; the goaltending covered 12 goals of it. Erik Gustafsson had the best share on the blue line at 51.1 per cent and finished minus-19 on on-ice goals of 26-38 against an expected 33-32 — one of the least fair ratings in this edition. Albert Johansson arrived at 24 and was quietly the second-best defenceman on the roster by chance share.

What the Scout Says

Two genuine building blocks and a third pair playing on the first.

Moritz Seider defends with reach and reading rather than recovery speed, plays a genuinely hard game in the corners, and his 38 assists come from beating a forecheck with a pass. He takes every hard assignment on a club that is 26th in chance share, which is most of what his own share is measuring.

Simon Edvinsson's stride is long and easy and quick enough to recover when beaten wide, and he clears a crease and closes a rush with reach at 22. 67 penalty minutes is a young defenceman still learning where the line is. Albert Johansson does not stall a breakout and does not get rescued, which on a third pair is the whole job.

Ben Chiarot hits hard and clears his crease and is one of two men here who can be trusted in front of his own net, and 9 assists in 81 games at 21 minutes is one of the lowest offensive returns in this edition. Erik Gustafsson escapes pressure and moves the puck early and cannot win a battle, which is why eight organisations have signed him for the power play and released him for the goals against.

What the Quant Says

Cam Talbot went 21-19-5 with a .9004 across 47 games at 37, and the club's goaltending came in 8.7 goals better than the chances faced, 11th in the league.

That is the one phase of this team that worked, and it is the one the club has spent the summer changing. John Gibson arrives from Anaheim with a .9112 in 29 games — his best number in six seasons, achieved in front of the worst defensive club in hockey, which makes it better than it looks.

A 37-year-old and a 32-year-old who has absorbed a decade of 35 shots a night is not a long-term crease. It is a considerably better short-term one than most rebuilding clubs have.

What the Scout Says

Two veterans, both of whom are better than their save percentages look.

Cam Talbot's game is positional and economical rather than athletic — square, tracking well through traffic, never travelling further than the puck requires. The recovery is where 37 shows: beaten laterally, he no longer gets to the second puck, so a scramble is more dangerous against him than it was five years ago. Thirteen seasons of being a starter, a backup, a playoff hero and a waiver casualty, and no stretch in the record where any of it visibly affected him.

John Gibson is athletic and reflex-driven, and the glove has always been the standout tool — he beats pucks by reaction rather than by being early. The rebound control is ordinary and the depth varies, and what has thinned is the ability to make a second and third save in sequence, which was once the best part of him. A .9112 in front of the league's worst defence is a better number than it appears, and there is a real chance he looks considerably better behind a club that is merely 21st.

What the Quant Says

7th in the league at 8.15 expected goals per 60, over 4:40 a night. Comfortably the best phase on the roster and one of the better units in hockey.

Larkin scored 13 power-play goals, DeBrincat 13, Kane 12, Raymond 8. The personnel is the reason: Raymond runs it from the half-wall with the best passing in the organisation, Kane's vision is still among the best of the last twenty years, DeBrincat's release does not need time, and Larkin drives to the net. James van Riemsdyk was signed for the one thing the unit lacked — a man in the paint who deflects and collects rebounds and does nothing else.

What the Scout Says

The best thing this club does, and it is built on four men who each solve a different problem.

Lucas Raymond runs it from the half-wall and is the reason it works — the delay is genuine and the pass goes through the killer rather than around him. Patrick Kane on the other flank means a box cannot commit to either side. Alex DeBrincat's release does not need time or space, which punishes any killer who slides a step too far. Dylan Larkin drives the net and takes the puck to the paint on the retrieval.

Moritz Seider at the point moves it accurately rather than shooting it through anybody, which is the one soft spot. James van Riemsdyk was signed for the blue paint — deflections, rebounds, and standing where it hurts — which is precisely the job this unit had nobody to do, and at 36 it is the only job left in him.

What the Quant Says

27th at 7.71 expected goals against per 60, over 4:02 a game — the 4th-lightest workload in the league, and still 27th at the job.

Chiarot and Seider take the defensive minutes, Andrew Copp and Michael Rasmussen the forward ones. The summer's answer is Mason Appleton, a genuinely good penalty killer, and the arithmetic problem is Chiarot's 69 penalty minutes and Edvinsson's 67.

A club with the 2nd-best power play and the 27th-best kill is spending its special teams rather than banking them, and the gap between the two is roughly where the ninth missed playoff season came from.

What the Scout Says

The phase that cost the season, and it is not the personnel.

Moritz Seider and Ben Chiarot both defend the front of the net properly, and Seider's reach ends plays at the blue line rather than in the slot. Andrew Copp is a genuinely reliable defensive centre who took 8 penalty minutes in 56 games and takes the hard draws. Michael Rasmussen is 6-6 and boxes out. Mason Appleton arrives as one of the better killing forwards in the league.

What has gone wrong is structural — the unit is 27th while taking the 4th-fewest shorthanded minutes, which means the rate rather than the volume is the failure. Chiarot's 69 penalty minutes and Edvinsson's 67 are worth noting for a club that has now been in the bottom ten here for three years running.