Detroit Red Wings

Atlantic Division, Eastern Conference · 26 reports in the 2023-24 edition.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read, written from that season alone. Read the 2026-27 club page →

The club

2022-23 · 82 games · 200 for, 220 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five: 46.0% 26th of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five: 46.2% 26th of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty: 8.19 4th of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty: 6.92 9th of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth: +6.1 11th of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth: -20.0 28th of 32

Detroit Red Wings got 20.0 fewer saves than the chances they faced warranted — 20 goals of the record that the underlying play does not explain, and it regresses.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age: 27.6; weighted by points
From 33 and up: 18.1%; of skater points
From under 26: 40.8%; of skater points
Homegrown: 30.6%; drafted by this club
Continuity: 86.4%; of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

Thirty-first in the league at creating chances at even strength — and then the club signed or traded for nine forwards and defencemen in one summer.

Who this names 12 of 26 on the roster · 48% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Zachary Aston-Reese, Jonatan Berggren, Ben Chiarot, Andrew Copp, Austin Czarnik, Robby Fabbri, Christian Fischer, Ville Husso, Olli Maatta, David Perron, Michael Rasmussen, Lucas Raymond, Joe Veleno, Jake Walman.

What the Quant Says

35-37-10, 80 points, 24th in the league and seventh in the Atlantic.

240 goals for, 24th. 279 against, 23rd. Thirty-first at creating chances at even strength, 26th in shot-attempt share, 26th in chance share, 23rd on the power play with the seventh-most power-play time, 28th in the crease — and 13th on the penalty kill.

At five-on-five: 146 goals scored against 139.9 expected, and 183 conceded against 163.0. The finishing was 11th at plus-6.1 and the goaltending 28th at minus-20.0. Six goals gained by the skaters and twenty lost in the crease.

Dylan Larkin had a career-high 79 points on the club with the worst rate of chance creation in the league. Moritz Seider played all 82 games at 23:09 at 22.

Alex DeBrincat, Patrick Kane, J.T. Compher, Daniel Sprong, Klim Kostin, Justin Holl, Jeff Petry, Shayne Gostisbehere, James Reimer and Michael Hutchinson all arrive. Filip Hronek, Dominik Kubalik, Pius Suter, Oskar Sundqvist, Adam Erne, Robert Hagg, Alex Nedeljkovic and Magnus Hellberg do not.

Ten arrivals in one summer on a club that finished 31st at making chances. Six of them are forwards who score, one is a right-shot defenceman who plays 22 minutes, and two are goaltenders who posted .8899 and .8750. The intent is unmistakable and the goaltending half of it is a gamble.

What the Scout Says

Thirty-first at making chances, and ten new players brought in to fix it.

Detroit created 2.234 expected goals per 60 at even strength, the second-worst rate in the league. Dylan Larkin had 79 points anyway. Moritz Seider played 23:09 a night at 22.

The two young players at the centre of this rebuild are both real. What has been added around them is a large number of men in their late twenties and thirties who can shoot, and a crease that has not been solved.

Who this names 9 of 16 forwards · 62% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: Zachary Aston-Reese, Jonatan Berggren, Andrew Copp, Austin Czarnik, Robby Fabbri, Christian Fischer, Joe Veleno.

What the Quant Says

240 goals, 24th in the league.

Detroit created 2.234 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 31st — the second-worst rate in the league — and took 46.0 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 26th, and 46.2 per cent of the expected goals, 26th.

At five-on-five it scored 146 goals against an expectation of 139.9 — a surplus of 6.1, 11th in the league. The finishing was above average. There was very little to finish.

Dylan Larkin had 32 goals and 79 points, a career high at 26, on the club with the worst rate of chance creation in the league. Lucas Raymond had 17 goals and 45 points at 21, Moritz Seider 37 assists and 42 points at 23:09 a night and Michael Rasmussen 29 points in 56 games at 6-6.

Alex DeBrincat arrives from Ottawa with 27 goals and 66 points, Patrick Kane with 21 and 57 in 73 games, David Perron with 24 and 56, J.T. Compher from Colorado with 17 and 52, Shayne Gostisbehere with 13 goals and 41 points, Daniel Sprong from Seattle with 21 goals in eleven and a half minutes a night and Klim Kostin from Edmonton with 11.

What the Scout Says

A career high on the worst chance-creating club in hockey, and four scorers signed to make it easier.

Dylan Larkin is 6-1 and 204 and had 32 goals and 47 assists at 26, covering 3.19 miles a game at 23.0 mph and 2.6 bursts a night, the 94th percentile. On a roster containing the third-slowest forward in the league he is the outlier, and the club's whole transition game runs through it.

Alex DeBrincat is 5-8 and 180 and arrives with 27 goals and 187 in six seasons, from Farmington Hills, twenty minutes from the rink. The 82 in his shot grade is among the highest forward figures in this chapter. The minus-31 will follow him and the chance model says two-thirds of it was not his.

Patrick Kane arrives at 35 with 1,237 career points, three Stanley Cups and a resurfaced hip. The 92 in playmaking and the 92 in hockey sense are the highest grades on any card in this chapter, and the measured record from last season is genuinely bad. This book cannot price a hip and will not pretend otherwise.

David Perron is 6-0 and 202 and scored 24 goals off a top speed in the 2nd percentile — the third-slowest forward in the league — with 770 career penalty minutes. Lucas Raymond is 21 with 102 points in two seasons.

Daniel Sprong arrives with 21 goals in 11:25 a night and a 98.1 mph shot; Klim Kostin at 6-4 and 232 with 66 penalty minutes; J.T. Compher with 52 points and eight seasons of penalty killing; Michael Rasmussen at 6-6 with the softest measured shot on the roster.

Who this names 7 of 7 defencemen · 100% of their five-on-five minutes details

What the Quant Says

Detroit allowed 2.611 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 14th in the league, and conceded 279 goals, 23rd.

At five-on-five it conceded 183 goals against an expectation of 163.0, and the club's goaltending came in 20.0 goals worse than the chances it faced, 28th in the league. Fourteenth at preventing chances and twenty-third in goals against. That gap is the crease.

Moritz Seider played all 82 games at 23:09 at 22, with 80 assists in his first two seasons, and took 83 per cent of his shots from beyond 40 feet. Jake Walman has the third-hardest registered shot in the National Hockey League at 101.7 mph and scored 9 goals in 63 games.

Ben Chiarot finished minus-31 on a 42.3 per cent chance share, the 9th percentile, in the first year of a four-year contract. Olli Maatta has two Stanley Cups and 0.2 bursts above twenty miles an hour a game.

Justin Holl arrives from Toronto with a plus-15 and 34 shots from beyond 40 feet without a goal. Jeff Petry arrives from Pittsburgh at 22:21 a night with a 99.3 mph shot and 2 goals from 80 long-range shots. Shayne Gostisbehere arrives having played the season between Arizona and Carolina. Filip Hronek has gone to Vancouver.

What the Scout Says

A twenty-two-year-old playing twenty-three minutes, and four defencemen bought to stand beside him.

Moritz Seider is 6-2 and 210 and was sixth overall in 2019 out of Mannheim — a Calder at 20 and 164 games at 23 minutes a night before his 22nd birthday. The minus-11 and the 31st-percentile chance share have to be read against a club that finished 31st at making chances and plays him more than anyone.

Jake Walman is 6-1 and 218 and has the third-hardest registered shot in the National Hockey League at 101.7 mph, with 42 slap shots behind the measurement, and scored 3 goals from beyond 40 feet.

Ben Chiarot is 6-3 and 222 with 402 career penalty minutes and a run to the 2021 Final. He was signed for four years at 31 to make the blue line harder to play against; the physical half is real and measured, and the possession numbers were the worst on the club.

Jeff Petry arrives at 35 with 864 games and a 99.3 mph shot, a right shot who can play 22 minutes. Justin Holl arrives with 285 games and 82 points — a plus defenceman with no offence at all. Shayne Gostisbehere arrives with 34 career power-play goals and 60 slap shots, a power-play defenceman with one elite tool and an obvious defensive cost.

Olli Maatta has two Stanley Cups, a cancer diagnosis and shoulder surgery inside ten seasons, and 612 games.

Who this names 3 of 3 goaltenders details

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 20.0 goals worse than the chances it faced, 28th in the league.

Ville Husso went 26-22-7 with an .8958 and a 3.11 in 56 games, facing 1,603 shots with 4 shutouts. He posted a .9191 in St. Louis the season before he signed here, and his career line across 113 games is a .9042.

James Reimer arrives from San Jose, where he went 12-21-8 with an .8899 and a 3.48 in 43 games and 3 shutouts. His career line across 476 games is a .9106, in a thirteenth season and a fifth organisation.

Michael Hutchinson arrives from Columbus, where he went 2-6-3 with an .8750 in 16 games. His career line across 153 games is a .9022.

Alex Nedeljkovic and Magnus Hellberg have both gone to Pittsburgh.

Detroit has answered the 28th-best goaltending in the league by adding two goaltenders whose last seasons were .8899 and .8750. The bet is on Husso rediscovering the .9191, and there is no second plan on the page.

What the Scout Says

A .9191 two seasons ago, an .8958 last season, and two arrivals who were worse than either.

Ville Husso is 6-3 and 205 and went 26-22-7 with an .8958 in 56 games. He posted a .9191 in St. Louis in the season that earned him the contract, and the career .9042 across 113 games sits between the two. Detroit's whole goaltending plan is that the first number was the real one.

James Reimer arrives at 6-2 and 200 with 476 NHL games across thirteen seasons and four organisations, and a career .9106 that is a good deal better than the .8899 he posted last season at 34. He is the most experienced goaltender in this chapter by 300 games.

Michael Hutchinson arrives with 153 games across ten seasons and has never once been the man the club wanted.

Alex Nedeljkovic and Magnus Hellberg have gone to Pittsburgh. A club that finished 28th in the crease has replaced its backups with two men who were worse. That is either faith in Husso or an admission that the position has to wait.

Who this names 12 men details

The data does not say who takes these minutes, so there is no denominator to hold this against — a count of names is all it can honestly be. Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it.

What the Quant Says

23rd in the league at 6.539 expected goals per 60, over 5:25 a night — the seventh-most power-play time of any club. A great deal of ice, spent badly.

Dylan Larkin scored 16 power-play goals, David Perron 6, Lucas Raymond 5, Jonatan Berggren 5, Michael Rasmussen 0 and Moritz Seider 1. Alex DeBrincat scored 11 elsewhere, Patrick Kane 4, Daniel Sprong 6, J.T. Compher 5, Shayne Gostisbehere 5 and Jeff Petry 2.

Patrick Kane arrives with 124 career power-play goals in 1,180 games, the most on the roster, and David Perron has 77 in 1,055. Alex DeBrincat arrives with 63 in 450 — the highest rate here by a distance — Dylan Larkin has 45 in 584, Shayne Gostisbehere 34 in 538 and Jeff Petry 24 in 864.

Sixteen of Dylan Larkin's 32 goals came on the power play. Detroit has now added four men with 34 or more career power-play goals to a unit that finished 23rd with the seventh-most ice in the league.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-third by rate on the eighth-most power-play time in the league, and four men added who have all scored fifty on one.

Patrick Kane arrives with 124 career power-play goals in 1,180 games, the most on the roster. David Perron has 77 in 1,055 and stands in the paint at 35.

Alex DeBrincat arrives with 63 in 450 games — by rate the largest figure here — and shoots from the left circle at 5-8. Dylan Larkin has 45 in 584 and scored 16 last season, half his total.

Shayne Gostisbehere arrives with 34 in 538 games and a 99.5 mph shot at the 96th percentile, which is the specific tool this unit did not have. Jeff Petry has 24 in 864 and takes the other point.

Detroit finished 23rd with the eighth-most power-play minutes in the league. If the summer does not fix this unit, nothing on the roster will.

Who this names 11 men details

What the Quant Says

12th in the league at 6.672 expected goals against per 60, over 4:56 a night, 19th in shorthanded time. The best department on the club.

Moritz Seider scored 1 shorthanded goal, Dylan Larkin 1 and Andrew Copp 1. Christian Fischer scored 1 elsewhere and Zachary Aston-Reese 0.

Andrew Copp has 7 career shorthanded goals in 565 games, the most on the roster, and Dylan Larkin 6 in 584. David Perron has 4 in 1,055, Zachary Aston-Reese 3 in 307 and Shayne Gostisbehere 2 in 538.

C · Detroit Red Wings

Thirtieth overall, three seasons, and twenty points in a full one.

Jake Walman

D · Detroit Red Wings

The third-hardest registered shot in the National Hockey League, and three goals from beyond forty feet.

How they were used

2022-23 · 82 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.