Chicago Blackhawks

What the Quant Says

219 goals, 28th in the league, off 2.173 expected goals per 60 at even strength — the lowest rate of any club in hockey.

At five-on-five it scored 143 against an expectation of 138.9. Four goals of finishing gained, 15th. The conversion was ordinary; there was simply nothing to convert.

Patrick Kane had 26 goals and 66 assists at 21:49 a night, the 99th percentile in ice time among forwards, with 3:47 on the power play at the 98th. 34 per cent of his points came on the man advantage. His top shot speed was 83.2 mph, the 7th percentile among forwards — there has never been a shot, and there has always been a hand.

Alex DeBrincat scored 41 goals and has gone to Ottawa. Dylan Strome had 54 points and has gone to Washington. Dominik Kubalik had 32 and has gone to Detroit. Kirby Dach was the 3rd overall pick in 2019 and has gone to Montreal.

Jonathan Toews had 37 points with 2.32 takeaways per 60, the 89th percentile among forwards. Philipp Kurashev had 21 points and covers ground at the 96th percentile.

Max Domi arrives with 39 points and 2.47 even-strength points per 60 — the 81st percentile — on 13 minutes a night. Andreas Athanasiou arrives with 11 goals in 28 games. Taylor Raddysh takes 64 per cent of his shots from the slot, the 90th percentile.

MacKenzie Entwistle took 3.62 shots per 60, the 2nd-lowest of the 393 qualified forwards. That is the bottom of this lineup, and there is a good deal of it.

What the Scout Says

Kane is still the best player here and the shape of him has not changed in fifteen years: 5-10, no shot at all — 83.2 mph, the 7th percentile — a release and a hand and sixty-six assists. He shoots from the circle at 39 per cent slot share and passes from everywhere. He hits nobody: the 5th-lowest rate of the 393 qualified forwards.

Toews is the more interesting page. He did not play in 2020-21 and came back at 33 to take 2.32 pucks away per 60, the 89th percentile — the skill the position is built on is intact even where the production is not. He is not a physical centre any more and probably never will be again.

Domi arrives with 28 assists on thirteen minutes a night and no defensive game whatsoever: blocks at the 6th-lowest of any qualified forward, penalties taken at the 94th percentile. Athanasiou is speed and a career minus-75. Dickinson blocks shots and does not score.

The young forwards are the point of the season. Raddysh shoots only from the paint and put up his numbers behind Victor Hedman. Katchouk hits at the 97th percentile and draws penalties at the 94th. Lafferty hits full speed more often than almost anyone. Kurashev covers ground at the 96th percentile and produces nothing. Entwistle takes the 2nd-fewest shots of any qualified forward and hits at the 97th percentile.

What the Quant Says

291 goals against, 26th in the league — off 2.603 expected goals against per 60 at even strength, 16th.

At five-on-five it conceded 192 against an expectation of 167.1. Twenty-five goals worse than the chances, which is the goaltending, and it is the whole of the difference between a mid-table defensive record and a 26th-place goal total.

Seth Jones played 26:13 a night — the most of the 202 qualified defencemen — took 47.3 per cent of the chances and finished minus-37, the second-worst figure in this book. He covered 3.82 miles a game, a hundredth behind Kris Letang for the most of any skater here.

Jake McCabe took 42.8 per cent of the shot attempts, the 3rd percentile among defencemen, with 6.58 blocks per 60 at the 96th. Connor Murphy took 43.6 per cent with 7.26 blocks per 60 — the 3rd-highest of the 202 qualified defencemen.

Those two blocked shots at nearly the highest rates in the league and were outshot by everybody, which is what a defence pair looks like when the club in front of it cannot hold the puck. The 16th-ranked expected-goals-against rate is theirs.

Calvin de Haan blocked 7.89 shots per 60, second only to Brayden McNabb, and has gone to Carolina. Erik Gustafsson has gone to Washington and Riley Stillman to Vancouver.

Jack Johnson arrives at 35 with 1,024 career games, a career minus-114, a median shot from 55 feet and a top speed at the 10th percentile among defencemen. Caleb Jones has the 3rd-softest shot of the 192 defencemen the tracking covers.

What the Scout Says

Two shot-blockers, a 26-minute number one who cannot fix it, and a 35-year-old veteran arriving to soak up minutes.

Murphy and McCabe are the identity: 7.26 and 6.58 blocks per 60, the 3rd- and 8th-highest of the 202 qualified defencemen, against shot-attempt shares at the 4th and 3rd percentiles. They are on the ice for a shooting gallery every night and they stand in front of it. Murphy takes 0.4 bursts over 20 mph per 60 — the 5th percentile — because he does not need to skate to do this job. He fouls at the 86th percentile, which is what happens when the puck never leaves.

Jones is the puzzle. Twenty-six minutes a night, the most of any defenceman in the league, 46 assists, 3.82 miles a game and a minus-37. He defends by skating and gapping and he is not physical. Whether the chance share is his or the club's is the question the next eight years will answer, and this season will not.

Caleb Jones is 184 pounds with the 3rd-softest shot of the 192 defencemen the tracking covers and a top speed at the 5th percentile. Jack Johnson is 35, shoots from 55 feet and has a career minus-114 across 1,024 games. Neither is the future and both will play sixty times.

What the Quant Says

Chicago's goaltending came in 24.9 goals below the chances it faced, 27th in the league, and every goaltender who produced it is gone.

Marc-Andre Fleury played 46 games and has gone to Minnesota. Kevin Lankinen played 32 and has gone to Nashville. Collin Delia played 8 and has gone to Vancouver. Arvid Soderblom played 3 and is the only one still here.

Petr Mrazek arrives having gone 12-6-0 with a .8885 and a 3.34 in 20 games for Toronto, on 520 shots faced. His career line across 295 games is a .9093 with 24 shutouts, and the record has swung between a .9228 in Carolina and last season's .8885 in the space of two years.

Anton Khudobin arrives having gone 3-4-1 with a .8788 in 9 games for Dallas. His career line across 259 games is a .9161, genuinely good and built almost entirely as a backup. Nine games is not a season and no conclusion survives it in either direction.

Two goaltenders in their thirties on short arrangements, on a club that is not trying to win. The minus-24.9 says the crease cost this team two dozen goals last season; nothing about the summer suggests it will cost fewer.

What the Scout Says

The three goaltenders who cost Chicago 24.9 goals last season are all gone and the two who replace them are 30 and 36.

Mrazek is an aggressive, athletic goaltender who challenges out and plays the puck as well as anybody at the position. That style is unforgiving when the legs are not right, because a goaltender who starts outside his crease has further to travel back into it, and last season's .8885 is what it looks like when it goes wrong. The career .9093 across 8,000 shots is the better guide.

Khudobin is 5-11, which is small for the modern position, and survives by challenging early and tracking through traffic. The .9161 across 259 games is genuinely good, and it was built almost entirely as somebody's backup.

Arvid Soderblom played three games last season and is the only goaltender here who will still be under contract when the club is good again. That is the whole succession plan, and on a team that will concede a great deal, the season is going to tell us something about him whether or not anyone wants it to.

What the Quant Says

25th in the league at 5.931 expected goals per 60, over 5:11 a night — the 7th-most power-play time of any club, and the 25th-best result from it.

Patrick Kane took 3:47 a night, the 98th percentile among forwards, and 34 per cent of his points came on it. Seth Jones ran the point at 3:23, the 96th percentile among defencemen, with 37 per cent of his points there. Those two took the whole unit and it finished 25th.

Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Strome were the other two pieces and both are gone. DeBrincat scored 41 goals; Strome was the man Kane played 1,234 attempts with.

Erik Gustafsson ran the second unit from the blue line and has gone to Washington.

Max Domi arrives with 1:13 a night and Taylor Raddysh with 1:17, neither of which is a first-unit number anywhere else. Jonathan Toews took 2:43 at the 78th percentile and scored 4.

The honest reading is that Chicago has two power-play players, both over 33, and no third one on the roster. A unit that was 25th with DeBrincat and Strome on it is not going to be better without them.

What the Scout Says

Kane at the top of the circle, Jones at the point, and nothing else on the roster.

Kane took the 98th percentile of forward power-play time and Jones the 96th among defencemen, and between them they were the unit. It finished 22nd while getting more power-play time than any other club on this page, which is the plainest statement of the problem: the personnel below the top two was not NHL-standard, and now the third and fourth pieces have been traded.

Toews is the net-front and scored four. Domi arrives with 1:13 a night; Raddysh with 1:17. Neither has been a first-unit player anywhere.

There is no fix here and the club is not looking for one. The interesting question is whether Kane's 34 per cent power-play share of points survives a season with a worse unit around him, because a great deal of the 92 points depends on it.

What the Quant Says

19th in the league at 6.440 expected goals against per 60, over 4:24 a night — the 5th-least shorthanded time of any club.

Connor Murphy killed 2:41 a night, the 88th percentile among defencemen, with 7.26 blocks per 60 at the 3rd-highest of the position. Jake McCabe killed 2:32, the 81st, with 6.58 blocks at the 96th percentile. The unit is two shot-blockers and it works exactly as well as that suggests.

Sam Lafferty killed 1:55, the 90th percentile among forwards, with a top speed at the 87th and bursts at the 98th. Jonathan Toews killed 1:23 at the 68th percentile, which is a second-unit share for a centre who has taken first-unit shorthanded minutes most of his career.

Jason Dickinson arrives having killed 1:28 in Vancouver with 3.19 blocks per 60 — the 95th percentile among forwards — and he is here to do that job and no other.

Seth Jones killed 1:53, the 53rd percentile among defencemen, which is where a club puts a 26-minute defenceman it is trying to keep fresh.

The kill was the least of Chicago's problems and it is the unit least affected by the summer.

What the Scout Says

The one unit that works, and it is two defencemen going down in front of pucks.

Murphy and McCabe take five and a quarter minutes a night between them, block at the 3rd- and 8th-highest rates in the position, and neither of them can move a puck. On a kill that is the correct trade.

Lafferty is the forward to watch: a top speed at the 87th percentile among forwards and bursts at the 98th, killing 1:55 a night, on a unit that will spend a great deal of the season defending. Dickinson arrives to do the same job with blocks instead of speed.

Toews killed 1:23 last season, a second-unit share. Whether that is a decision the club made or a decline is not something the data here can separate.

Nineteenth in the league is the only defensive number on this page that is not an embarrassment, and it was earned with the least shorthanded time of any club here.