Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2024-25 report →

71

Reese Johnson

Chicago Blackhawks Center

Thirty-six point three per cent of the chances in 348 minutes — and 27.5 per cent of them beside MacKenzie Entwistle.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2020-21CHI5000-2900040.07:57
2021-22CHI37156-1316000244.210:38
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—42156-1525000283.610:19

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

1 goal and 5 assists in 37 games — 6 points at 10:38 a night, minus-13, with 16 penalty minutes.

36.3 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 348 minutes. His ice went 6-18 against an expectation of 8.38-14.72 — two fewer goals for than the chances promised and three more against, which on 348 minutes is noise around a very bad number.

Three hundred and forty-eight minutes is below the 500 this book requires before it will rank a player, so no percentiles are quoted here.

The Finesse Game

Twenty-four shots and one goal in 37 games, from a median of 28 feet with 20 per cent from the slot. Six points is the whole of the offensive record and 42 career games is the whole of the career.

He was undrafted, and a fourth-line centre who cannot shoot has to be able to do everything else.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 193, and the hitting and the faceoffs are the job. 1.5 bursts over 20 mph a game is a low figure driven by ten-minute nights.

Minus-13 in 37 games on a club that finished 26th in goals against is the shape of a fourth line that could not get out of its own end.

The Intangibles

Undrafted out of Red Deer, and 42 NHL games at 24.

With MacKenzie Entwistle on the ice Chicago took 27.5 per cent of the chances, and with Seth Jones 28.4 — both across roughly 200 attempts, which is a fragment and not a verdict. The fourth line was a hole and he was in it, and the club that is now rebuilding is going to find out whether he is a fourth-line NHL centre by playing him eighty times.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • ordinaryraised, and called ordinary

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    18% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 0th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • undraftedpresent and ordinary· arrived without a pick attached

    “Undrafted out of Red Deer, and 42 NHL games at 24.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 348 minutes

Expected goals
36.3%
1st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
38.4%
0th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 6 for, 18 against. Expected: 8.4 and 14.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
22nd
Numbers
1st

The report ranks him 21 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 54 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 37 games

Top speed
21.7 mph
32nd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.49 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.78 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
84.3 mph
35th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 348 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
CHI took 45.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 36.3% — 9.1 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 348 minutes at five-on-five — 10th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Boris Katchouk36.3%36.3%54.1%
Jake McCabe41.4%33.3%43.4%
Seth Jones28.4%39.8%48.5%

36.3% together, 36.3% for him apart and 54.1% for Katchouk apart. Katchouk was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

35 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 1 of them goals. His median goal came from 22 feet. 20% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 26% from beyond forty.