Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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77

Victor Hedman

Tampa Bay Lightning Defense

Eighty-five points from the blue line at 25:05 a night, and the 99th-percentile power-play workload.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2009-10TBL7441620-379000904.420:51
2010-11TBL7932326+3700001013.021:01
2011-12TBL6151823-965000826.123:06
2012-13TBL4441620+131000765.322:40
2013-14TBL75134255+5533021707.622:26
2014-15TBL59102838+12403021158.722:41
2015-16TBL78103747+21461001805.623:04
2016-17TBL79165672+3474051669.624:31
2017-18TBL77174663+32542012167.925:51
2018-19TBL70124254+24442041826.622:46
2019-20TBL66114455+27314031557.124:04
2020-21TBL5493645+5281021366.625:03
2021-22TBL82206585+26366062199.125:05
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—898134469603+1476242602518887.123:20

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

82 games, 20 goals and 65 assists at 25:05 a night, plus-26, thirty-six penalty minutes, 219 shots. Six of the twenty came on the power play. Second overall in 2009 by Tampa Bay, thirteen seasons, 898 games, 603 points.

The Finesse Game

Eighty-five points is the 3rd-largest total any defenceman in the league produced — Roman Josi took ninety-six and Cale Makar eighty-six — and it came off 25:05 a night, the 95th percentile among the 202 who played forty games.

3:35 on the power play is the 99th percentile and forty-five per cent of his points came there, the 97th.

1.77 even-strength points per 60 is the 97th percentile, so the power play is not doing the work on its own.

6.39 shots per 60 is the 89th percentile at 9.1 per cent, the 95th — twenty goals from a 49-foot median with sixty-nine per cent of his attempts from beyond forty feet.

55.5 per cent of the expected goals is the 89th percentile and 53.6 per cent of the attempts the 82nd, out of 54.8 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 188th-highest of 652 skaters.

1.52 takeaways per 60 is the 87th percentile. His ice went 78-58 against an expectation of 72.64-58.27 — five ahead in front and level behind, which for eighty-two games of top-pair ice is remarkably close to the model.

The Physical Game

6-7 and 244 pounds, and 2.71 hits per 60 is the 30th percentile with 3.76 blocks at the 37th.

Thirty-six penalty minutes in eighty-two games at twenty-five minutes a night. He is one of the largest men in the league and plays a game with almost no contact in it.

The Intangibles

A 23.1 mph top speed is the 98th percentile among defencemen and 2.9 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 the 82nd, at 6-7 and 244 pounds.

His shot is 101.2 mph, the 95th percentile.

8.46 miles per 60 is the 51st percentile, which at twenty-five minutes a night is a great deal of total ground.

He is 31, with 603 points in 898 games across thirteen seasons, and the eighty-five is a career high by thirteen. Size, speed, a hard shot, the largest workload on a contender and elite production at both strengths — there is no soft spot in this file. The one thing worth watching is the age: he turns 32 in December, and 898 regular-season games at 23:20 a night is a great deal of hockey.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    55.5% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 50.7% for his club in the minutes he sat: +4.8, 96th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “A 23.1 mph top speed is the 98th percentile among defencemen and 2.9 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 the 82nd, at 6-7 and 244 pounds.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,514 minutes

Expected goals
55.5%
88th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53.6%
81st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 78 for, 58 against. Expected: 72.6 and 58.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
99th
Numbers
88th

The two rank him within 11 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 80 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 82 games

Top speed
23.1 mph
98th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
1.20 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.53 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
101.2 mph
96th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1514 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
TBL took 52.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 55.5% — 3.0 above the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,514 minutes at five-on-five — 98th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jan Rutta56.4%54.3%44.8%
Brayden Point56.4%55.0%47.4%
Steven Stamkos54.0%56.1%51.7%

56.4% together, 54.3% for him apart and 44.8% for Rutta apart. Rutta was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Rutta than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

322 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 21 of them goals. His median goal came from 35 feet. 9% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 69% from beyond forty.