This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2023-24 report →
Dominik Kubalik
Detroit Red Wings Left Wing
Thirty goals two seasons ago and fifteen last year, with the 32nd-fewest takeaways of the 393 qualified forwards.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | CHI | 68 | 30 | 16 | 46 | +2 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 157 | 19.1 | 14:22 |
| 2020-21 | CHI | 56 | 17 | 21 | 38 | -3 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 156 | 10.9 | 15:31 |
| 2021-22 | CHI | 78 | 15 | 17 | 32 | -16 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 9.3 | 14:31 |
| 2022-23 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 202 | 62 | 54 | 116 | -17 | 50 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 474 | 13.1 | 14:45 |
This Season So Far
The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
15 goals and 17 assists in 78 games for Chicago — 32 points, a minus-16 and 16 penalty minutes at 14:31 a night, the 40th percentile among forwards.
45.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 995 minutes, the 14th percentile, and 45.1 per cent of the attempts, the 13th. His ice went 31-40 against an expectation of 33.85-41.1.
Chicago had the lowest expected-goal rate at even strength in the league, so a poor share was the club’s default; his is worse than the club’s.
The Finesse Game
Fifteen goals on 161 shots is 9.3 per cent, the 31st percentile. He scored 30 on 157 shots in 2019-20 — 19.1 per cent, which was never going to hold — and 17 on 156 the year after. The shot volume has been the same three years running and the goal total has halved.
43 per cent of his shots came from the slot, the 21st percentile, at a median of 28 feet, the 78th. He is a perimeter shooter, and that is the mechanism: the 19 per cent season came from the same chart and it was luck.
1.38 even-strength points per 60 is the 25th percentile with 28 per cent of his points on the power play, the 77th.
0.95 takeaways per 60 is the 32nd-fewest of the 393 qualified forwards.
The Physical Game
6-2 and 192. 4.93 hits per 60 is the 60th percentile and 1.48 blocks the 39th. Neither is doing anything.
21.9 mph is the 21st percentile among forwards and 9.23 miles per 60 is the 65th-lowest of 365. Slow, and covering little ground.
93.1 mph is the 73rd percentile — a hard shot from distance, which is the whole file in one line.
0.37 penalties taken per 60 is the 18th percentile. Sixteen minutes in seventy-eight games, and plus-0.26 net at the 70th.
The Intangibles
One hundred and ninety-first overall in 2013, the seventh round, and 202 NHL games at 27 with 62 goals across three seasons, all in Chicago.
The record is a 30-goal rookie season at 24 and two years of decline from it. Thirty goals on 157 shots is not a skill anybody keeps, and the two seasons since have been 17 and 15 on the same volume.
Detroit needs goals — it finished 25th — and a seventh-round winger with 62 in 202 games is a reasonable bet at the price. What the file will not support is treating the 30-goal season as the baseline. The 28-foot median is the baseline.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- durable· was available
78 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 995 minutes
- Expected goals
- 45.2%
- 19th pct
- Shot attempts
- 45.1%
- 16th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 31 for, 40 against. Expected: 33.9 and 41.1.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe two rank him within 13 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.
Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 48 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 78 games
- Top speed
- 21.9 mph
- 41st pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 0.94 a game
- Distance
- 2.23 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 93.1 mph
- 82nd pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 84.1
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2021-22 with CHI · 995 minutes at five-on-five
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2021-22
- The club
- CHI took 45.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 45.2% — 0.2 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- Second line, 995 minutes at five-on-five — 61st percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Toews | 45.2% | 45.1% | 48.8% |
| Jake McCabe | 39.3% | 48.6% | 44.8% |
| Seth Jones | 47.7% | 43.9% | 47.2% |
45.2% together, 45.1% for him apart and 48.8% for Toews apart. Toews was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
218 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 15 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 36% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 28% from beyond forty.