Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

88

Patrick Kane

Chicago Blackhawks Right Wing

Ninety-two points at 21:49 a night — the 99th percentile in ice time — and the 5th-lowest hit rate of the 393 qualified forwards.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2007-08CHI82215172-55270419111.018:22
2008-09CHI80254570-24213042549.818:40
2009-10CHI82305888+162090626111.519:12
2010-11CHI73274673+72850221612.519:17
2011-12CHI82234366+7404052539.120:12
2012-13CHI47233255+11880313816.720:03
2013-14CHI69294069+722100622712.819:37
2014-15CHI61273764+101060518614.519:51
2015-16CHI824660106+1730170928716.020:25
2016-17CHI82345589+113270529211.621:24
2017-18CHI82274976-20325042859.520:11
2018-19CHI814466110+22290734112.922:29
2019-20CHI70335184+84080227512.021:20
2020-21CHI56155166-7143031917.822:14
2021-22CHI78266692-19189022879.121:49
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—11074307501180+43410120067368411.720:19

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

26 goals and 66 assists in 78 games — 92 points at 21:49 a night, the 99th percentile among forwards — with a minus-19 and 18 penalty minutes.

47.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,318 minutes, the 27th percentile among forwards. His ice went 65-67 against an expectation of 48.96-55.08 — sixteen more goals for than the chances promised and twelve more against.

Ninety-two points on the club that finished 32nd at creating chances at even strength. That is the report in a sentence.

The Finesse Game

Sixty-six assists. 34 per cent of his points came on the power play, the 87th percentile, on 3:47 a night at the 98th — more power-play time than all but a handful of forwards in the league.

10.12 shots per 60 is the 89th percentile at 9.1 per cent, the 30th. 39 per cent of his shots came from the slot, the 11th percentile, on a median distance of 30 feet at the 88th — he shoots from the circle and passes from everywhere.

His top shot speed was 83.2 mph, the 7th percentile among forwards. There has never been a shot. There has always been a release and a hand.

The Physical Game

5-10 and 176. 0.39 hits per 60 is the 5th-lowest of the 393 qualified forwards and 0.92 blocks is the 12th percentile.

21.8 mph is the 15th percentile among forwards and 2.9 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the 18th. He is 33 and he was never fast. 9.53 miles per 60 is the 38th percentile — he covers ground at an ordinary rate on the most ice time of any forward on the club.

0.32 penalties taken per 60 is the 11th percentile — 18 penalty minutes in 78 games.

The Intangibles

First overall in 2007, three Stanley Cups, a Conn Smythe, and 1,107 games with 430 goals and 1,180 points, all for one club.

With Alex DeBrincat on the ice Chicago took 48.9 per cent of the chances and Kane without him 44.5; with Dylan Strome 50.1 and without him 43.7. DeBrincat is in Ottawa and Strome in Washington. He is 33, in the last year of his contract, and the club has removed both of the men his ice depended on.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    78 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    16:54 a game at five-on-five, 100th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    76% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 100th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “he shoots from the circle and passes from everywhere”

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “0.39 hits per 60 is the 5th-lowest of the 393 qualified forwards”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,318 minutes

Expected goals
47.1%
33rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.1%
46th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 65 for, 67 against. Expected: 49.0 and 55.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
67th
Numbers
33rd

The report ranks him 34 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 64 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 78 games

Top speed
21.8 mph
34th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.04 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.46 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
83.2 mph
31st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1318 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
CHI took 45.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.1% — 1.7 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,318 minutes at five-on-five — 90th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Alex DeBrincat48.9%44.5%50.1%
Dylan Strome50.1%43.7%46.0%
Seth Jones49.8%44.6%45.5%

48.9% together, 44.5% for him apart and 50.1% for DeBrincat apart. He was worse away from DeBrincat, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than DeBrincat did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

378 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 28 of them goals. His median goal came from 21 feet. 25% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 26% from beyond forty.