Chicago Blackhawks

What the Quant Says

204 goals — the fewest in the league.

Chicago created 2.127 expected goals per 60 at even strength — the worst rate in the league — and took 43.9 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 31st, and 42.4 per cent of the expected goals, 31st.

At five-on-five it scored 135 goals against an expectation of 137.3 — a shortfall of 2.3, 20th in the league. The finishing was very nearly neutral. There was simply almost nothing to finish.

Andreas Athanasiou had 20 goals and 40 points, Taylor Raddysh 20 and 37 with 13 of the goals from inside 20 feet, Seth Jones 37 points from the blue line at 24:27 a night, Jason Dickinson 30 and Philipp Kurashev 25.

Taylor Hall arrives from Boston with 16 goals in 61 games, Corey Perry from Tampa Bay with 12 at 38 and Ryan Donato from Seattle with 14 and a plus-16. Patrick Kane, Max Domi and Jonathan Toews do not return.

What the Scout Says

The fastest forward in this chapter on the worst offensive club in hockey, and four veterans signed to teach.

Andreas Athanasiou is 6-2 and 190 and reached 24.2 mph, the 99th percentile, with 3.7 bursts above twenty miles an hour a game, the 98th. He will score twenty and he will be on for thirty against; the 11th-percentile chance share over 1,115 minutes is the harder half to explain away.

Taylor Raddysh is 6-2 and 201 and scored 20 goals with 51 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet. On a club about to add a first overall pick, a right winger who scores from in tight is exactly the player who benefits.

Taylor Hall arrives at 6-1 and 210, first overall in 2010 and a Hart Trophy in 2018, on his fifth organisation. He carries the puck out and gains the line under control, and that is a specific and useful thing to hand a nineteen-year-old centre.

Corey Perry arrives at 38 with 1,257 games, 883 points and 1,380 penalty minutes, at the 3rd percentile in distance covered and 57 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet. He reached the Stanley Cup Final in three consecutive seasons with three different clubs, which is a fact about what clubs think he is worth in a series.

Nick Foligno arrives with 1,081 games and 875 penalty minutes, Tyler Johnson is 5-8 with three Cup finals behind him, and Lukas Reichel is 21 and played 23 games.

What the Quant Says

Chicago allowed 2.890 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 28th in the league, and conceded 301 goals, 27th.

At five-on-five it conceded 208 goals against an expectation of 186.9, and the club's goaltending came in 21.1 goals worse than the chances it faced, 30th in the league.

Seth Jones played 72 games at 24:27 and finished minus-38, with 110 shots on goal from beyond 40 feet and 2 goals from out there. Connor Murphy played 80 games at 19:23 at a 20.5 mph top speed, the fifth-slowest reading in the league, and 3 bursts above twenty miles an hour all season.

Jarred Tinordi is 6-6 and 229 and held a 39.9 per cent chance share. Nikita Zaitsev played 46 games at 16:28 at the 3rd percentile in top speed and the 3rd in bursts.

Jaycob Megna arrives from Seattle, a seventh-round pick who was 30 before he had played 141 NHL games. Jake McCabe has gone to Toronto, Caleb Jones to Colorado and Ian Mitchell to Boston.

What the Scout Says

The slowest measured defenceman in this chapter playing nineteen minutes a night, and a minus-38 on the largest contract.

Connor Murphy is 6-4 and 212 and reached 20.5 mph, the fifth-slowest top speed in the league, with 3 bursts above twenty miles an hour across a whole season. He is the last man left from a defence corps dismantled twice, and he keeps playing nineteen minutes a night — which is the argument this book has been having with itself all year about what skating grades are for.

Seth Jones is 6-4 and 213, fourth overall in 2013 and a Norris candidate in Columbus. The minus-38 will follow him and most of it is not his. The 110 shots from beyond 40 feet are his, and so is the fact that at 29, on a club with nothing else, he could not drag the possession above 47 per cent.

Jarred Tinordi is 6-6 and 229 and Nikita Zaitsev is at the 3rd percentile in top speed and the 3rd in bursts. Jaycob Megna arrives at 6-6, a 210th-overall pick who was 30 before he had 141 NHL games — on a club that conceded 301 goals, being unremarkable is a service.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 21.1 goals worse than the chances it faced, 30th in the league.

Petr Mrazek went 10-22-3 with an .8942 and a 3.66 in 39 games, facing 1,248 shots. His career line across 334 games is a .9072.

Arvid Soderblom went 2-10-2 with an .8940 and a 3.45 in 15 games at 24, facing 453 — two ten-thousandths below his partner. His career line across 18 games is an .8887, and he is undrafted.

Alex Stalock played 27 games here and does not return.

Two goaltenders separated by two ten-thousandths of a save percentage, behind the club with the worst rate of chance creation in the league and the fifth-worst rate of suppression. Neither figure is a judgment on either man.

What the Scout Says

Two goaltenders, two ten-thousandths apart, behind the worst offensive club in hockey.

Petr Mrazek is 6-2 and 192 and went 10-22-3 with an .8942 across 39 games. He is quick, he is erratic, and there is a career .9072 across 334 games behind him that says the season was not entirely his. Eleven years and eleven hundred games of NHL evidence is enough to know roughly what he is.

Arvid Soderblom is 6-3 and 180, undrafted, and posted an .8940 in 15 games at 24. He was asked to do it behind the worst defence in the Western Conference and a career .8887 across 18 games is not yet a number about anything.

Alex Stalock does not return. Chicago has not addressed the crease and has no reason to yet; the club that finishes last at making chances does not lose games because of its goaltender.

What the Quant Says

31st in the league at 5.163 expected goals per 60, over 4:53 a night, 22nd in power-play time. The second-worst power play in hockey.

Taylor Raddysh scored 7 power-play goals, Andreas Athanasiou 3, Seth Jones 2, Jason Dickinson 1 and Philipp Kurashev 0. Corey Perry scored 6 elsewhere, Taylor Hall 4, Tyler Johnson 4 and Nick Foligno 2.

Corey Perry arrives with 117 career power-play goals in 1,257 games, the most on the roster by 40 and one of the larger figures in this book. Taylor Hall arrives with 77 in 822 and Nick Foligno with 50 in 1,081. Tyler Johnson has 34 in 671 and Seth Jones 19 in 730.

Four men with 50 career power-play goals have been added to the second-worst power play in the league, and every one of them is over 30. That is not a plan for the next five years; it is a plan for the next one.

What the Scout Says

Second-worst in the league, and the answer is four men over thirty who have all done it before.

Corey Perry has 117 career power-play goals in 1,257 games, the most on this roster by 40. At 38 he takes 57 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet and covers less ground than almost anybody in the league, which is exactly the profile of a net-front power-play forward.

Taylor Hall arrives with 77 career power-play goals in 822 games and Nick Foligno with 50 in 1,081. Tyler Johnson has 34 in 671 at 5-8.

Taylor Raddysh scored 7, the most on the club, and Seth Jones has 19 career power-play goals in 730 games and takes the point.

Everything about this unit is a stopgap, and it is an honest one: four veterans who know where to stand, waiting for the player who will make it matter.

What the Quant Says

15th in the league at 6.619 expected goals against per 60, over 4:31 a night — the sixth-fewest shorthanded minutes of any club. The only department in which Chicago was ordinary.

Connor Murphy scored 2 shorthanded goals. MacKenzie Entwistle scored 1 elsewhere.

Tyler Johnson has 8 career shorthanded goals in 671 games, the most on the roster, and Corey Perry 6 in 1,257. Connor Murphy has 3 in 631, Taylor Hall 1 in 822 and Colin Blackwell 2 in 191.

Reese Johnson took the 3rd percentile of zone starts and held a 36.4 per cent chance share — the hardest minutes on a hopeless club, and the 1st percentile of the league to show for it.

Corey Perry took 95 penalty minutes in 81 games at 38 and has 1,380 in his career. Fifteenth is the best thing on this page, and the men responsible for it are the oldest players on the roster.

What the Scout Says

Fifteenth in the league, which on this club counts as a strength.

Tyler Johnson has 8 career shorthanded goals in 671 games, the most on the roster, and Corey Perry 6 in 1,257 with 1,380 penalty minutes. Between them they have played 1,928 NHL games.

Connor Murphy scored 2 shorthanded goals from a defenceman who cannot skate, which is what reading the play early enough buys. He arrives where the puck is going instead of chasing where it went, and on the kill that is the whole job.

Reese Johnson took the 3rd percentile of zone starts and came out with the 1st-percentile chance share in the league. Somebody had to start those shifts and it was him.

Nick Foligno has 875 career penalty minutes and Jarred Tinordi is 6-6 and 229. The kill is the one unit on this roster with more experience than it needs.