Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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44

MacKenzie Entwistle

Chicago Blackhawks Right Wing

The 3rd-lowest shot-attempt share and the 2nd-lowest shot volume of the 393 qualified forwards, with hits at the 97th percentile.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2020-21CHI5112+12000616.79:49
2021-22CHI555712-16230103414.710:15
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—606814-15250104015.010:13

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

5 goals and 7 assists in 55 games — 12 points at 10:15 a night, minus-16, with 23 penalty minutes.

38.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 523 minutes, the 1st percentile among forwards, and 40.3 per cent of the shot attempts — the 3rd-lowest of the 393 qualified forwards. His ice went 15-29 against an expectation of 14.07-22.49.

10:15 a night is the 2nd percentile in ice time. He was the thirteenth forward on a team that finished 27th.

The Finesse Game

3.62 shots per 60 is the 2nd-lowest of the 393 qualified forwards. Thirty-four attempts in 55 games — he does not shoot at all.

66 per cent of the shots he did take came from the slot, the 94th percentile, on a median distance of 18 feet at the 8th, and 14.7 per cent went in. When he shoots it is from the paint and it works; he shoots five times a month.

His top shot speed was 80.8 mph, the 2nd percentile among forwards. There is no shot to speak of.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 203. 13.74 hits per 60 is the 97th percentile among forwards and 1.60 penalties drawn per 60 is the 94th, with a drawn-minus-taken of plus-0.96 at the 98th percentile.

That is the entire argument for him and it is a genuine one: he forechecks at nearly the highest rate in the league, he draws penalties, and he almost never takes one. 10.11 miles per 60 is the 89th percentile at a top speed of 21.6 mph at the 10th — he works, and he is slow.

The Intangibles

Sixty-ninth overall in 2017 by Arizona, third round, and 60 NHL games at 23.

With Reese Johnson on the ice Chicago took 27.5 per cent of the chances, across 195 attempts — which is a fragment of a season and a startling number to find in one. Chicago has cleared four top-six forwards out and the fourth line is what remains; on the evidence it is not a foundation.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    25% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 2nd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “he forechecks at nearly the highest rate in the league, he draws penalties, and he almost never takes one”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 523 minutes

Expected goals
38.5%
2nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
40.3%
2nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 15 for, 29 against. Expected: 14.1 and 22.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
22nd
Numbers
2nd

The report ranks him 20 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 54 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 55 games

Top speed
21.6 mph
29th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.62 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.73 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
80.8 mph
24th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 523 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
CHI took 45.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 38.5% — 6.9 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 523 minutes at five-on-five — 21st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jake McCabe44.5%35.2%43.1%
Ryan Carpenter39.3%38.1%47.3%
Seth Jones37.6%38.9%48.4%

44.5% together, 35.2% for him apart and 43.1% for McCabe apart. He was worse away from McCabe, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than McCabe did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

44 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 5 of them goals. His median goal came from 9 feet. 59% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 16% from beyond forty.