Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2024-25 report →

82

Caleb Jones

Chicago Blackhawks Defense

The 3rd-softest shot of the 192 defencemen the tracking covers, and 8.8 per cent shooting at the 94th percentile.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19EDM17156-96000214.819:48
2019-20EDM43459-1100013810.514:08
2020-21EDM33044-76000230.013:36
2021-22CHI5151015-318001578.816:43
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—144102434-20400021397.215:36

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

5 goals and 10 assists in 51 games — 15 points at 16:43 a night, minus-3, with 18 penalty minutes.

46.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 795 minutes, the 19th percentile among defencemen. His ice went 29-33 against an expectation of 26.43-30.87.

Fifteen points in 51 games is a career high, in his fourth season and his first here.

The Finesse Game

8.8 per cent shooting is the 94th percentile among defencemen — five goals on 57 shots — and 16 per cent of them came from the slot, the 80th percentile. He gets to the middle and he finishes when he gets there.

His top shot speed was 84.0 mph, the 3rd-softest of the 192 defencemen the tracking covers. Only Jaycob Megna and Niko Mikkola shot softer. The five goals came from being close, not from beating anyone.

1.03 even-strength points per 60 is the 62nd percentile and 2.18 giveaways is the 78th, which counts against him.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 184, 5.42 hits and 4.08 blocks per 60, both close to the middle of the position. He is not physical and he is not avoiding it.

20.8 mph is the 5th percentile among defencemen and 1.0 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the 30th. For a 184-pound offensive defenceman that is the shape you would rather not see: no speed, no shot, and a hole where the escape ought to be.

The Intangibles

One hundred and seventeenth overall in 2015 by Edmonton, fourth round, and 144 NHL games at 25 with a career minus-20.

On a blue line where two of the top four are shot-blockers and the number one is signed for eight more years, he is the only defenceman under 26 who is going to get minutes, and nothing in the tracking says he should.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 795 minutes

Expected goals
46.1%
23rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
45.8%
20th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 29 for, 33 against. Expected: 26.4 and 30.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
6th
Numbers
23rd

The two rank him within 17 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 48 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 51 games

Top speed
20.8 mph
23rd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.27 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.43 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
84.0 mph
16th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 795 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
CHI took 45.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 46.1% — 0.7 above the club he did it on.
The role
795 minutes at five-on-five — 41st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Patrick Kane52.2%42.9%45.8%
Dylan Strome44.2%47.0%50.1%
Alex DeBrincat54.1%42.9%48.5%

52.2% together, 42.9% for him apart and 45.8% for Kane apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

68 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 5 of them goals. His median goal came from 32 feet. 9% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 57% from beyond forty.