Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

3

Seth Jones

Chicago Blackhawks Defense

Twenty-six thirteen a night — more than any defenceman in the league — for a minus-37.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2013-14NSH7761925-23242021006.019:37
2014-15NSH8281927+3202101236.519:53
2015-16NSH/CBJ8132831-14221001571.922:05
2016-17CBJ75123042+6241031527.923:24
2017-18CBJ78164157+10307042496.424:36
2018-19CBJ7593746+1280041844.925:49
2019-20CBJ5662430+10202001264.825:17
2020-21CBJ5652328-18262011413.525:14
2021-22CHI7854651-37280001942.626:13
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—65870267337-622221711414264.923:25

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

5 goals and 46 assists in 78 games — 51 points at 26:13 a night, the most of the 202 qualified defencemen — with a minus-37 and 28 penalty minutes.

47.3 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,563 minutes, the 30th percentile among defencemen. His ice went 51-71 against an expectation of 55.23-61.55 — four fewer goals for than the chances promised and ten more against.

Minus-37 is the worst figure in this edition, ahead of Oliver Bjorkstrand’s minus-35. Twenty-six minutes a night on a club that finished 26th in goals against will produce one.

The Finesse Game

5.69 shots per 60 is the 78th percentile among defencemen and 37 per cent of his points came on the power play, the 87th, on 3:23 a night at the 96th.

Forty-six assists. 1.14 even-strength points per 60 is the 72nd percentile — good rather than exceptional, from a defenceman who had the puck more than almost anyone in the league.

17 per cent of his shots came from the slot, the 84th percentile among defencemen, at 2.6 per cent shooting. He walks in and the shots do not go in.

The Physical Game

6-4 and 213, 2.91 hits per 60 is the 35th percentile among defencemen and 4.55 blocks is the 62nd. He is a large man who defends by skating and gapping rather than by contact.

3.82 miles skated a game is the second-highest figure in this book, a hundredth behind Kris Letang, and 8.74 miles per 60 is the 84th percentile among defencemen. That is the twenty-six minutes as much as the man, and it is still an enormous amount of ground.

0.41 penalties taken per 60 is the 21st percentile — 28 penalty minutes at 26 minutes a night, which is genuinely disciplined.

The Intangibles

Fourth overall in 2013 by Nashville, and 658 NHL games at 27 with 337 points and a career minus-62.

With Patrick Kane on the ice Chicago took 49.8 per cent of the chances and Jones without him was at 45.5, across 1,157 attempts together. The winger who produced his offence is 33 and this is the last year of that contract. Jones is 27 and signed long past it.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    78 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    20:02 a game at five-on-five, 97th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He is a large man who defends by skating and gapping rather than by contact.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,563 minutes

Expected goals
47.3%
34th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49%
45th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 51 for, 71 against. Expected: 55.2 and 61.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
58th
Numbers
34th

The report ranks him 24 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 62 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 78 games

Top speed
22.2 mph
74th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
1.44 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.82 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
93.5 mph
58th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1563 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
CHI took 45.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.3% — 1.9 above the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,563 minutes at five-on-five — 99th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Patrick Kane49.8%45.5%44.6%
Alex DeBrincat50.5%45.1%48.4%
Calvin de Haan46.1%48.1%46.0%

49.8% together, 45.5% for him apart and 44.6% for Kane apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

250 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 5 of them goals. His median goal came from 31 feet. 11% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 66% from beyond forty.