Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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61

Boris Katchouk

Chicago Blackhawks Left Wing

Fourteen point one five hits per 60 at the 97th percentile, and a 98.9 mph shot he scored three times with.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22TBL/CHI59347-739001585.29:55
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—59347-739001585.29:55

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

3 goals and 4 assists in 59 games for Tampa Bay and here — 7 points at 9:55 a night, minus-7, with 39 penalty minutes.

49.3 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 551 minutes, the 47th percentile among forwards. His ice went 13-21 against an expectation of 19.86-20.4 — seven fewer goals for than the chances promised.

9:55 a night is the 2nd percentile in ice time among the 393 qualified forwards. He barely played and he qualified anyway.

The Finesse Game

5.2 per cent shooting is the 5th percentile among forwards and 0.77 even-strength points per 60 is the 2nd. Three goals and four assists in 59 games is close to the floor of what a forward can produce and stay in a lineup.

His top shot speed was 98.9 mph, the 97th percentile among forwards. A hard shot and 58 attempts, from a median of 24 feet with 49 per cent from the slot.

0.72 giveaways per 60 is the 4th percentile. He does not turn the puck over because he does not carry it.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 212. 14.15 hits per 60 is the 97th percentile among forwards, and 1.64 penalties drawn per 60 is the 94th with a drawn-minus-taken of plus-0.62 at the 92nd.

That is the case for him and it is not a small one: he forechecks at a rate almost nobody matches and the referees notice. 1.03 penalties taken per 60 is the 79th percentile, which is the cost.

The Intangibles

Forty-fourth overall in 2016 by Tampa Bay, and 59 NHL games at 24 in his first season.

He came here from Tampa Bay in March with Taylor Raddysh. With Victor Hedman on the ice Tampa took 59.8 per cent of the chances; Katchouk without him was at 46.0. On a club that has traded away most of its top six, a forechecker who draws penalties is going to get far more than ten minutes a night, and that is the whole of the opportunity.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    36% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 10th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “he forechecks at a rate almost nobody matches and the referees notice”

  • agitatora strength· gets under the skin; draws the retaliation

    “1.64 penalties drawn per 60 is the 94th”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 551 minutes

Expected goals
49.3%
50th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47%
29th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 13 for, 21 against. Expected: 19.9 and 20.4.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
53rd
Numbers
50th

The two rank him within 3 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 61 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 59 games

Top speed
22.7 mph
77th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.20 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.60 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
98.9 mph
98th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with TBL · 362 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
CHI took 45.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.3% — 3.9 above the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 551 minutes at five-on-five — 22nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Taylor Raddysh55.3%44.1%45.8%
Ross Colton51.2%48.3%54.0%
Reese Johnson36.3%54.1%36.3%

55.3% together, 44.1% for him apart and 45.8% for Raddysh apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

78 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 9 feet. 42% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 17% from beyond forty.