Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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96

Philipp Kurashev

Chicago Blackhawks Center

Ten point three eight miles per 60 at the 96th percentile, and the largest negative with-and-without split on the roster.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2020-21CHI548816-9122016512.313:05
2021-22CHI6761521-1612201867.012:51
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—121142337-25244021519.312:57

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

6 goals and 15 assists in 67 games — 21 points at 12:51 a night, minus-16, with 12 penalty minutes.

43.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 774 minutes, the 11th percentile among forwards. His ice went 21-33 against an expectation of 24.07-30.87.

1.23 even-strength points per 60 is the 17th percentile. Twenty-one points in a third season is not the trajectory a fourth-round pick needs.

The Finesse Game

5.99 shots per 60 is the 25th percentile among forwards at 7.0 per cent, the 12th. Six goals on 86 shots, from a median of 26 feet with 49 per cent from the slot.

0.77 giveaways per 60 is the 5th percentile among forwards. He is careful with the puck to a fault: the turnover rate is elite and so is the absence of anything happening.

1.05 penalties drawn per 60 is the 75th percentile with a drawn-minus-taken of plus-0.63 at the 93rd.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 190, 2.16 hits per 60 is the 23rd percentile among forwards and 2.09 blocks is the 71st. He is not physical.

10.38 miles per 60 is the 96th percentile among forwards against a top speed of 22.2 mph at the 38th. He covers an enormous amount of ground at an ordinary speed, which is what a young forward doing the right thing without the tools looks like.

The Intangibles

One hundred and twentieth overall in 2018, fourth round, and 121 NHL games at 22.

With Jake McCabe on the ice he took 35.4 per cent of the chances and 48.9 without him, across 479 attempts together and 824 apart. That is a thirteen-point gap. It does not settle whether he was being sunk or being sheltered when he was away from the club’s hardest defensive assignment, and 774 minutes is not enough to.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 774 minutes

Expected goals
43.8%
13th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
44.9%
15th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 21 for, 33 against. Expected: 24.1 and 30.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
26th
Numbers
13th

The two rank him within 13 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 55 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 67 games

Top speed
22.2 mph
55th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.36 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.22 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
91.7 mph
75th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 774 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
CHI took 45.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 43.8% — 1.6 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 774 minutes at five-on-five — 39th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jake McCabe35.4%48.9%45.3%
Kirby Dach44.8%43.2%45.8%
Seth Jones45.6%42.8%47.6%

35.4% together, 48.9% for him apart and 45.3% for McCabe apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

105 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 6 of them goals. His median goal came from 26 feet. 37% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 18% from beyond forty.