Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

13

Henrik Borgstrom

Washington Capitals Center

The 6th-lowest even-strength point rate of all 393 forwards.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18FLA4101-10000616.712:40
2018-19FLA5081018-1443005414.812:00
2019-20FLA4000-2200030.012:23
2021-22CHI52437-1422000419.810:31
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—110131326-312830010412.511:20

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

52 games for Chicago, 4 goals and 3 assists at 10:31 a night, minus-14, twenty-two penalty minutes, 41 shots. Twenty-third overall in 2016 by Florida, four seasons, 110 games, 26 points.

The Finesse Game

0.706 even-strength points per 60 is the 6th-lowest of all 393 forwards who played forty games. Only five men in the league who dressed for half a season produced less at five-on-five.

4.50 shots per 60 is the 18th-lowest of the same 393 at 9.8 per cent, from a 23-foot median with fifty-four per cent of his attempts from inside twenty feet.

Seven points in fifty-two games, and twenty-six in 110 across four seasons.

2.41 takeaways per 60 is the 92nd percentile against 0.88 giveaways at the 10th, which is the one genuinely good pair of numbers in the file and belongs to a man who touches the puck rarely.

47.6 per cent of the expected goals is the 31st percentile and 48.0 per cent of the attempts the 32nd, out of 39.5 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 82nd-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts — a hard chair on a club that finished 29th in the league in attempt share.

His ice went 10-23 against an expectation of 15.35-16.9 — five short in front and six more against, on thirty-three goals.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 199 pounds, and twenty-two penalty minutes in fifty-two games.

2.85 hits per 60 is the 35th percentile and 2.08 blocks the 71st, against 0.55 penalties drawn per 60 and 1.10 taken — a net of minus 0.55, the 6th percentile among forwards.

The Intangibles

21.3 mph is the 4th percentile among the 365 tracked forwards, and 1.77 miles a game at ten and a half minutes of ice.

His shot is 86.7 mph, the 18th percentile.

He is 25, twenty-third overall in 2016, with twenty-six points in 110 games across four seasons and three organisations, and a career minus-31. The takeaway rate and the giveaway rate are the only figures pointing anywhere but down. The sixth-lowest scoring rate in the league at even strength, from a first-round pick at 25, is what a career looks like when it has one more chance left in it.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 510 minutes

Expected goals
47.6%
36th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48%
37th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 10 for, 23 against. Expected: 15.3 and 16.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
13th
Numbers
36th

The numbers rank him 23 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 52 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 52 games

Top speed
21.3 mph
20th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.60 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.77 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
86.7 mph
48th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with CHI · 510 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
CHI took 45.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.6% — 2.2 above the club he did it on.
The role
510 minutes at five-on-five — 19th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jake McCabe44.6%49.4%43.1%
Seth Jones49.9%46.5%47.0%
Connor Murphy48.1%47.4%43.6%

44.6% together, 49.4% for him apart and 43.1% for McCabe apart. He was better away from McCabe, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost McCabe.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

57 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 4 of them goals. His median goal came from 13 feet. 44% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 12% from beyond forty.