Chicago Blackhawks

What the Quant Says

179 goals, 32nd in the league — the fewest any club scored — and 32nd at creating chances at even strength at 2.127 expected goals per 60.

At five-on-five the club scored 118 goals against an expectation of 139.1 — a finishing deficit of 21.1 goals, 31st in the league. Worst in the league at making chances, and second-worst at burying the few it made.

Connor Bedard had 61 points in 68 games at 18, with 22 goals on 206 shots. Philipp Kurashev had 54 points, Jason Dickinson 22 goals on 126 shots, Nick Foligno 37 points at 36 and Ryan Donato 30.

Nobody else on the roster reached twenty goals, and Dickinson's 22 came at a 17.46 per cent conversion he had never approached before.

Teuvo Teravainen scored 25 goals with 9 on the power play, Tyler Bertuzzi 21, and Ilya Mikheyev and Craig Smith 11 each — all of it somewhere else.

What the Scout Says

A nineteen-year-old with the best release in his draft class, a 36-year-old in the paint, and four imported wingers.

Connor Bedard took 206 attempts at a median of 31 feet with 27 per cent from inside 20, converting at 10.68 per cent. The release is the thing — it leaves from a standstill, off the wrong foot, with no wind-up a goaltender can read, and it is already among the quickest in the league. He also threw 39 assists in 68 games, and the passing may be the better half.

Nick Foligno takes 58 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet at a median of 15 — the most net-front profile on the roster — and scored 17 goals at 36 doing it. Ryan Donato takes 45 per cent from inside 20 and Jason Dickinson 36 per cent, converting at 17.46.

The imports are the shot quality this club did not have. Tyler Bertuzzi shoots from a median of 18 feet with 55 per cent inside 20 and converted 13.13 per cent — a career 13.90 across 813 shots. Teuvo Teravainen converted 17.61 per cent and has 304 career assists. Ilya Mikheyev takes 43 per cent from inside 20 at a median of 25.

What the Quant Says

290 goals against, 29th in the league, and 30th in even-strength expected goals against at 2.959 per 60. The two agree, which after the offensive page above is at least honest.

At five-on-five the club conceded 202 goals against an expectation of 192.6.

Seth Jones played 25:29 a night — the most on the club — at 44.2 per cent of the chances, and his ice went 43-51 against an expectation of 47.58-56.52. Fifteen goals of scoring missing on the ice of the man playing the most.

Kevin Korchinski played 19:37 a night at 20 and finished minus-39 on the 5th percentile of chances. Alex Vlasic is 6-6 and 23 and took 44.3 per cent. Isaak Phillips took 36.9 per cent and Louis Crevier 34.7 — the lowest chance share of any player in this edition.

TJ Brodie was added at 34 after a plus-17 in Toronto at 50.2 per cent of the chances, which is the best mark any defenceman on this roster produced and it was produced elsewhere.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-five and a half minutes from a man with a career minus-115, a twenty-year-old at minus-39, and the two lowest chance shares in the edition.

Seth Jones carries the puck out of his own zone rather than passing it out and he played 25:29 a night, more than anyone on the club. He walks the line and holds the puck until a forechecker commits — 315 career assists in 797 games — and he defends with position rather than force. A career minus-115 is a number about the clubs as much as the man.

Kevin Korchinski is 20, skates as well as anybody on this blue line, and carries the puck out under pressure. He was minus-39 in his first season at 19:37 a night, and asking that of a nineteen-year-old is how a club ends up 31st.

Alex Vlasic is 6-6 and defends the rush with reach almost nobody gets around, and he does not clear his crease by force. Connor Murphy blocks shots and clears the front of his own net on 437 career penalty minutes.

TJ Brodie was added at 34 and his first pass is early and to the correct side of the ice — 292 career assists and a plus-17 in Toronto. Alec Martinez is 37, blocks shots and takes 83 per cent of his own attempts from beyond 40 feet. Louis Crevier is 6-8 and took 34.7 per cent of the chances.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 9.4 goals worse than the chances faced, 22nd in the league, behind the 30th-ranked chance suppression in hockey. Below average, in front of almost nothing.

Petr Mrazek went 18-31-4 with a .9072, a 3.05 average and 1 shutout in 56 games, facing 1,724 shots. That is exactly his career rate of .9072 across 390 games, produced behind the worst defensive structure he has ever played in front of, and it is the single most creditable individual season on this page.

Arvid Soderblom went 5-22-2 with an .8790 in 32 games, facing 942 shots. He is undrafted and carries a career .8826 across 50 games and a record of 7-34-4.

Five wins in thirty-two games is a number that belongs to a club rather than a goaltender, and it is also eighty-eight points of save percentage below the man he was splitting with.

What the Scout Says

A 32-year-old having the best season of a twelve-year career behind the worst defence in it, and an .8790.

Petr Mrazek is 6-2 and 192 and plays aggressively, meeting the shooter at the top of the crease. The athleticism is the method and always has been — he is out of position more often than a positional goaltender and he reaches saves a positional goaltender does not. The lateral recovery is quick and it has to be.

The rebound control is the weakness and has been across 390 games. Behind a defence ranked 30th at suppressing chances, that should have been fatal and a .9072 in 56 games says it was not.

Arvid Soderblom is 6-3 and 180 and light for the height, and he plays deep and relies on the frame. The rebound control is the weakness here too — an .8790 across 32 games and a career .8826 in 50 says the second chance goes back into the slot. He is undrafted, and 7-34-4 across three seasons is a record that belongs to the club in front of him as much as to him.

A club conceding 290 goals with 9.4 goals of poor goaltending has the crease well down its list.

What the Quant Says

26th in the league at 6.580 expected goals per 60, over 4:53 a night — the 22nd-most power-play time in hockey. Bad at it, and given an ordinary amount of it.

Nick Foligno scored 8 power-play goals at 36, Philipp Kurashev 6, Connor Bedard 4, Seth Jones 3, Jason Dickinson 2 and Lukas Reichel 2. Teuvo Teravainen scored 9 and Tyler Bertuzzi 5 before arriving here.

The construction had one idea and it was the right one. Bedard shoots from a median of 31 feet and took 206 attempts, and the unit existed to get him the puck at the top of the circle. Foligno takes 58 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet at a median of 15 — the most net-front profile on the roster, from a 36-year-old — and stood in front of the goaltender for all of them.

Teravainen arrives with 47 career power-play goals and Bertuzzi with 25, which is more genuine power-play scoring than this club had on the whole roster.

What the Scout Says

One release, one screen, and two men who arrived in July with 72 career power-play goals between them.

Connor Bedard sets up at the top of the circle and the unit exists to put the puck on his stick there. The release is quick enough that a killing box which knows exactly what is coming still cannot close on it, and he scored 4 a man up at 18.

Nick Foligno is the screen — 58 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet at a median of 15, and 8 power-play goals at 36. Seth Jones walks the line from the point and scored 3.

Teuvo Teravainen arrives with 47 career power-play goals and Tyler Bertuzzi with 25. Teravainen holds the puck below the goal line and waits for the seam, which is the half of a power play this club did not have at all.

Twenty-sixth in the league with Bedard on it says everything about what was around him.

What the Quant Says

10th in the league at 6.687 expected goals against per 60, over 4:50 a game — the ninth-fewest shorthanded time in hockey. This is the one thing on this page that works, and it works well.

A club that was 32nd in shot share and 30th at suppressing chances at even strength had a top-ten penalty kill. That is a structure holding up under conditions where nothing else did, and it is the clearest evidence on the page that the coaching was not the problem.

Nick Foligno scored 1 shorthanded goal at 36 and takes the hardest defensive shifts among the forwards. Jason Dickinson wins the draw that begins the shift. Connor Murphy blocks shots at 6-4 and Alex Vlasic defends the rush with reach at 6-6.

The discipline is genuinely good. Ilya Mikheyev took 4 penalty minutes in 78 games, Teuvo Teravainen 10 in 76, Joey Anderson 8 in 55, Alec Martinez 6 in 55 and Kevin Korchinski 20 in 76 — five men who barely put the club a man short at all.

Patrick Maroon arrives with 990 penalty minutes in 780 games, which is the opposite arrangement.

What the Scout Says

The one unit on this roster that works, and a club that barely takes a penalty.

Nick Foligno takes the hardest defensive shifts among the forwards and scored a shorthanded goal at 36, and seventeen seasons of reading a power play is the whole of why. Jason Dickinson wins the draw that begins the shift.

Alex Vlasic defends the rush with reach at 6-6 and Connor Murphy blocks shots at 6-4, and the pair deny the entry rather than defending the formation once it is set.

The discipline underneath is the quiet reason for the rank. Ilya Mikheyev took 4 penalty minutes in 78 games — the second-lowest rate of any skater in this edition who played fifty — Joey Anderson 8 in 55, Teuvo Teravainen 10 in 76 and Alec Martinez 6 in 55.

Tenth in the league on the ninth-fewest shorthanded time in hockey, from the club with the worst shot share in the league, is the single most surprising number in this chapter.